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Eric Hewitt Thesis Presentation - Harvard University

Transcript: Q2: Is the correlation negative? Scope 1 emissions are a small yet significant predictor of stock returns (not even a 10-year figure). Industry one-year r-sq's as high as 0.93 The corporation, the perpetual individual, needs to account for sustainability in their business models: To meet emission reduction targets To preserve shareholder wealth To manage climate change risks As a competitive advantage within an industry The Effects of Greenhouse Gasses and Sustainability Strategies on Stock Price Performance Climate change is the "single biggest risk to the economy today" (Hank Paulson: Secretary of the Treasury, CEO GS) "extreme weather events…failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation…and major natural catastrophes” are the second, third, and fifth of the top five global risks in terms of likelihood (World Economic Forum, 2016) Over half of global industrial emissions can be traced to just 25 corporate and state producing entities: 25 corporate and state producing entities account for 51% of global industrial GHG emissions. All 100 producers account for 71% of global industrial GHG emissions (CDP, 2017) Return v. Scope 1 & 2 Q3: Can metrics be identified to explain the correlations? Metric Analysis PREDICTORS: Earnings r-sq=0.0 Trailing 1y return r-sq=0.0 Best: P/E r-sq=0.4 Scope 1 r-sq=0.03 Q1: Can GHG emissions predict stock price return? 1-Tailed Sig. Test HYPOTHESIS: CO2e (GHGs) are significant to stock price return. If so, how strongly correlated & why? In different industries and years, different sustainability metrics matter RESULTS: Adding new variables and segregating the sample data by industry increased fit, strength, and the linearity of the original model RESULTS: 2013 Energy (***p = <0.001), R =96%, R2 = 93%, Adj. R2 = 88% Conclusion INTRODUCTION: Climate Change & the Economy Source: Vanguard, 2012 GHG emissions (Scope 1 & 2) significantly predicted stock price return (***p<0.001) 736 companies were included in the regression: 6-year total stock price return v. total scope 1 and scope 2 emissions for the same period RESULTS: For every 1% increase in metric tons of CO2e by a company, there will be a -0.181% decrease in 6-year return, holding Scope 2 total emissions constant. Correlation test to prove a negative slope Positive correlation between S1 & S2 (r=0.7) Weak negative correlation between S1, S2 & stock prices S1 **r= -0.175 S2 **r= -0.118 RESULT: Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions will lower medium-term stock prices Why does this research matter? Eric P. Hewitt, Harvard University, May 2018 ALM, Sustainability (2017) erichewitt@alumni.harvard.edu

Harvard presentation

Transcript: AVID P.5 Harvard University Katie Kelsey History History General Overview General Overview Harvard University was founded September 8, 1636 by the General Court of Massachusetts Bay Colony. Name Havard University Cost Cost REGULAR STUDENTS Regular Students Students that don't go to Harvard on scholarships pay 43,280 for a tution without financial aid. Kids who do have financial aid pay 63,025 for a tuition with all the room,board,and fees combined. SCHOLARSHIPS Scholarships Students that go to Harvard on scholarships have to pay an average of $12,000 annually. Although, more than 55% of the students recieve scholarship aid. GRADES GRADES MAJORS MAJORS Some of the most popular majors at Harvard Universtity are Social Sciences, Biology/Biological sciences, Mathamatics , History,and Physical Science. SPORTS SPORTS Male sports Female sports Baseball Basketball Heavyweight crew Lightweight crew Cross Country Fencing Football Golf Ice Hockey Lacrosse Sailing Skiing Soccer Squash Swimming and Diving Tennis Track and Field Volleyball Water Polo Wrestling Heavyweight crew lightweight crew Cross Country Fencing Field Hockey Golf Ice Hockey Lacrosse Rugby Sailing Skiing Soccer Softball Squash Swimming and Diving Tennis Track and Field Volleyball Water Polo The average GPA to get into Harvard is a 4.04 and the acceptance rate is 6% for every 100 applictations.Also, there's no absolute SAT requirement but they at least wanna see a 1470. GPA GPA EXTRAS EXTRAS The student to faculty ratio is 7:1 and there are 6,700 undergraduate students. POPULATION POPULATION Some of Harvard's extracurricular activities are varsity sports like volleyball and basketball. They also, have sports like water polo and skiing. EXTRACURRICULAR ACTIVITIES EXTRACURRICULAR ACTIVITIES Some attractions around Harvard are the museums because there are 8 around the college.Also, the Harvard Square which is a plaza. ATTRACTIONS ATTRACTIONS An interesting fact about the college is that 8 Harvard alumni have served as USA presidents. Such as Barack Obama and Theodore Roosevelt. INTERESTING FACTS INTERESTING FACTS

Harvard Social Network Thesis Presentation

Transcript: Analyzing Why do we make friends in college with the people we do? Randomness v. who we already are on the first day of freshman year? Individual propensities v. Structural components of existing network? networks The Facebook social network of the 188 participating members of Harvard's Class of 2012 was not so extraordinary. Large Connected Component Diameter: 4 (Harvard) v. 12 (Facebook) Mean geodesic distance: < 2 (Harvard) v. 4.74 (Facebook) Degree distribution highly right-skewed Tight relationship between degree and betweenness centrality at beginning and end of study Harvard students There is some truth to the fact that freshman who are sorted into River Houses their freshman year are less likely to see their friends who have been "quaded". evolution The stochastic actor-oriented model incorporates empirical data by making the following assumptions: 1) The observations of the social network are snapshots of an underlying continuous network evolution. 2) The network evolved by following a Markov process. 3) The timesteps in this Markov process are the smallest possible components of network dynamics, the modification of a single tie. 4) The transition probabilities for this Markov process is determined by individual assessment of possible sets of outgoing ties. Actor assigns weights on potential friends based on attributes. Attributes can include individual covariates of the potential friend (ethnicity, gender, public high school), homophily between actor and potential friend (shared individual attributes), proximity effects (shared dorm or academic field), and relational effects (density of graph, triadic closure, preferential attachment) Or in math language, the actor's decision of new friend is a stochastic optimization of...... Given this process, use a computer program to run thousands of simulations of social networks tweaking the relative importance of the factors in the model, until the simulations converge to (a close resemblance of) the observed network. Analyzing the evolution of the Facebook friendship network of Harvard students friendship What individual and structural attributes predicted self-reported social satisfaction? A) Number of self-reported close friends ("friends who you would consult or confide in regarding personal matters") B) Total number of friends in network C) Betweenness centrality in network D) Being in Adams house versus Currier house Betweenness centrality is a measure of the "importance" of a person in a social network in terms of facilitating flow of communicable things (both positive, such as information, and negative, such as germs) through a social network. It is calculated by normalizing the amount of shortest paths through the network that run through each individual in the network. Ans: Mostly A with a bit of D. Why are we friends again? But there are limitations! Facebook friends are not the same as real friends Missing data - only about 1/9 of the Harvard Class of 2012 participated in the study Quad-Yard Social Satisfaction riented S A tocastic ctor Motivation t Social Networks So what does this process look like? (cc) image by jantik on Flickr M O odels Randomly select an alter based on this weighting.

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