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Sales Forecast

Transcript: Product FABs Features.Advantages.Benefits Advertising + Promotion Distribution Product Positioning Packaging By:Jayme Torres, Chocolate Mint Choc. Chip Vanilla Freezer aisle Near other ice cream products Near register 6 Market Research Mini Cookie Dough Advertising + Promotion Solutions R & D Potential Problems Breyer’s ice cream currently works with Reese’s We can use their ice cream to fill the ice cream cups HERSHEY PARK Hershey, PA, U.S.A. 3,140,000 visitors annually Commercials Children8-14- Women/Men-22-45 Children know Reese's as an established brand of candy Busy moms/dads and young women/men would want this a as a snack on the go for kids or for themselves. Strategy #1: Demonstrate Value Strategy #2: Position & Difference Strategy #3: Develop the target market The Product 45 piece (tub): $4.69 – home 12 piece (bag): $1.89 – convenience 9 Pack (box): $11.98 – home Manufacturer Warehouse Retailer Consumer 4 Public Relations Definitely fill w/ Peanut Butter ice cream Sales Strategy/Materials Branding Ice cream tub (45 piece) Merchandising Soggy cone Too hard to bite Shelf longevity Big-cup Target Market Sales Forecast 15 Social Media: Multipack(9 bags) Mini bag(12 pieces) Create a perfect ratio of chocolate, ice cream, and waffle cone Unopened: 3-4 months Opened: 1-2 months Brand P+L 5 Warehouse: West Hershey, PA Ship through freezer trucks/trains Flavor PRICING Prestigious Pricing Mini size Chocolate covered ice cream filling Covered in cone all around # of people Brand Extension Plans Regular- sized Positioning Statement: For those who enjoy frozen desserts, Reese’s ice cream cups is the perfect product for you because it gives you the cone, chocolate, and ice cream all in one bite! Reese’s is known everywhere No other product like this Clearly states what product is in name


Transcript: Do they Increase Sales? The Metrics showed that: It’s as easy as tracking the source of the clicks and following the progress of the clicks. Digital tablets clearly help drive online sales for large and small brands, even if they have never had a printed catalog. The facts It seams that the digital catalog has resulted in better notoriety in the target range and: - an increase in e-commerce sales of around 5%, as a minimum - web traffic is usually raising with around 40%, with a growth of 10% to 20% monthly - 60% percent of traffic from the catalog is new traffic The major trend is the move to mobile, and app usage Friday, March 6, 2015 $1.25 These apps present tablet/smartphone users with easy access to all their favorite catalogs in one place: and on their tablets. They can browse, Pin, Like, compare items from multiple catalogs, and click through to place an order on the e-commerce site. The cloud offers a revolutionary way of directly selling to consumers through digital catalogs. Consumers tend to choose items to buy later and then go online to buy later. People are twice as likely to buy products online if they have received a printed catalog first and are also more likely to spend a lot more. Sales volume by company size Why Digital Catalog App use is growing while mobile web sites have stalled Pareto Chart - 40% are generating 80% sales Pareto Chart - 60% are generating 75% contracts How to approach the market How to approach the market Vol XCIII, No. 311 SALES FORECAST NEWS The vision

Sales Forecast

Transcript: SALES FORECAST By : WIDAD EL HAMDI INTRODUCTION In this table, Company X presents its quarterly sales statistics for the last 4 years. It is requested to provide sales forecasts for the following year. INTRODUCTION Graphical Representation => The graphical representation of sales let appear: -A general sales growth trend -A marked seasonality of sales => Sales forecasting process is based on the determination of the general trend as well as the seasonality phenomenon. Graphical Representation of Sales Determination of the General Sales Trend General Sales Trend Methods used to research the general sales trend: Manual adjustment: very simple process but not very precise. Double Moving Average (DMA): Slightly more sophisticated but still very simple method. Calculation of centered moving average Centered Moving Average Graphical Representation of the Evolution of Moving Averages Graphical Representation The graph clearly shows that the evolution of sales follows a linear trend. Determination of the linear regression line To adjust sales by a linear regression line, we have an equation of the form Y = a X+ b, where y represents sales, x the rank of the quarter, and a and b the coefficients to be determined by the following equations: Linear Regression Line The following table summarizes the data required for this calculation: CALCULATION By applying the formulas, we find: linear regression line y = 9.6 x+437.4 => If the trend does not follow a linear pattern, it becomes necessary to use another model or at least to reduce the model to a linear pattern if possible. Exponential Trends & Power Trends Non-Linear Trend Exponential Trends : e.g: the following table shows the sales of a product for the last 6 quarters. Exponential Trends The graphical representation of sales: An acceleration in sales growth is clearly visible. => Calculation of the logarithmic base 10 of sales. CONFIRMATION => The curve corresponds fairly well to a linear model. RESULT The sales equation as a function of time is expressed as: This sales equation can be written as: log y = log b + x log a We put : Log y = Y Log b = B Log a = A It becomes then: Y = B + Ax So Y = Ax + B => Which leads us back to a linear form. Power trends: Power Trends The power function is of the form: The use of logarithms lets writing: log y = log b + a log x We put: Log y = Y Log b = B Log x = X It becomes then: Y = a X + B => Which leads us back to a linear form. Forecast Seasonal Phenomenon & Forecast - The seasonal phenomenon: Seasonal Phenomenon Methods for determining seasonal coefficients : The method of periodic averages The trend ratio method => The seasonal coefficients are slightly different depending on the methodology followed. Quarter 1 : Sales average of Q1 Q1 = (524 +532 + 556 + 660) / 4 = 568 Coef Q1 = 568 / 519 = 1.095. Quarter 1 therefore represents 109.4% of an "average" quarter. In the same way, we obtain the coefficients for the other three quarters: Q2 = 426/519 = 0.821 Q3 = 390/519 = 0.751 Q4 = 692/519 = 1.333 The sum of the coefficients is equal to 4. Method of Periodic Averages Method of Periodic Averages We will calculate for each observation the ratio between the observed value and the value determined according to the linear adjustment, i.e. Trend Ratio Method Trend Ratio Method Example: For the first quarter of N-4, the value given by the adjustment is equal to: yˆ= (9.6 x1) + 437.4 = 447 The seasonal index is therefore equal to : I= 524/447 = 1.17 Forecast Quarterly forecasts will be given by the following calculations. Fi = (axi + b) x Ci Example: For the first quarter of year N (quarter 17), we will have: P17 = ((9.6 *17)+437.4)*1.13 = 676.23 Overall, we obtain the following sales forecasts for the four quarters: Q1 I 676,23 Q2 I 505,54 Q3 I 461,83 Q4 I 818,73 Forecast

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