Transcript: Thank you for listening! Common Cold Incidence for common cold is clearly high (anecdotal evidence) BUT, data for hypothesis is lacking Clear incidence of influenza been used as substitute Mortality figures show it is a severe problem facing health service Common Cold is a coronavirus (but can be caused by a rhinovirus too) Grouped with SARS Distinguishable from other common winter diseases such as influenza (an orthomyxovirus) By Aiken Yam & Jack Steadman Public Health England (2012/2013): Influenza activity in UK rose to only low levels Activity was prolonged Reached Levels higher than those seen in 2011/2012 Both children and adults affected Initially marked by outbreaks in schools After Christmas, outbreaks in care homes Brace yourselves... References: 1Isba R, Rapid Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicines [online], Blackwell Publishing, November 2003, available at: https://www.dawsonera.com/abstract/9781405140669. Accessed 14th November 2013. 2ONS, Deaths Registered in England and Wales in 2012 [online], October 2013, available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob1/mortality-statistics--deaths-registered-in-england-and-wales--series-dr-/2012/index.html. Accessed 14th November 2013 3ONS, Deaths Registered in England and Wales in 2011 [online], November 2012, available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob1/mortality-statistics--deaths-registered-in-england-and-wales--series-dr-/2011/index.html. Accessed 14th November 2013 4ONS, Deaths Registered in England and Wales in 2010 [online], October 2011, available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob1/mortality-statistics--deaths-registered-in-england-and-wales--series-dr-/2010/index.html. Accessed 14th November 2013 5ONS, Background and Methodology, 2012-based National Population Projections [online], November 2013, available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_330483.pdf. Accessed 14th November 2013 6ONS, Background and Methodology, 2010-Based National Population Projections [online], October 2011, available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_232313.pdf. Accessed 14th November 2013 7Hemila H, Chalker E, Vitamin C for preventing the common cold [online], January 2013, The Cochrane Library, DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD000980.pub4, available at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD000980.pub4/abstract. Accessed 14th November 2013 8Hemila H, Kaprio J, Albanes D, Heinonen O P, Virtamo J, Vitamin C, Vitamin E, and Beta-Carotene in Relation to Common Cold Incidence in Male Smokers [online], Epidemiology 13;1 January 2002 (pp. 32-37), available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3703244?seq=3. Accessed 14th November 2013 9ONS, Excess Winter Mortality in England and Wales, 2011/12 (Provisional) and 2010/2011 (Final) [online], available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_288362.pdf. Accessed 14th November 2013 10Public Health England, Surveillance of influenza and other respiratory viruses, including novel respiratory viruses in the UK: Winter 2012-13 [online] http://www.hpa.org.uk/webw/HPAweb&HPAwebStandard/HPAweb_C/1317139320524. Accessed 14th November 2013 Epidemiology Major cause of visits to a doctor in high-income countries and of absenteeism from work and school. Over 200 viruses cause common cold symptoms Symptoms vary Antibiotics are useless making other treatment options a substantial public health interest Winter is Coming...
Transcript: Most basic model S- Number of people susceptible I- Number of people that have been infected R- Number of people that have recovered Can add different terms to make this more realistic The cost of 10 shots of the vaccine costs around $10 SIR MODEL Data Collection Epidemiology : The Spread of Influenza Conclusion Model used to predict how a disease will react in a real world situation Just like the SIR the variables S, I and R are the same E stands for the people that are exposed to the disease Models General x-tics One type of surveillance conducted is Virological Surveillance On a weekly basis, the organizations in this program report the number of respiratory specimens tested Along with the number of those specimens who resulted positive for influenza types A and B Note: 18.5% infected dying was more deadly versus 50%! In our society, some groups try to predict and plot different diseases in different areas. This project will mainly focus on two different models, SIR and SEIR models. The first model tested was the SIR model which consists of Susceptible, Infected and Resistant. SEIR model consists of an extra variable E which is considered Exposed When including a term to compensate for vaccinations it lowers the amount of people who are infected Over time the number of susceptible will reach zero Example Mathematica Output Predicting Future Data Introduction Mathematica Introduction to the SIR and SEIR model Including Vaccination & Death SIR Model Assumption; SIR model assume the total population to be a constant Data Collection In this project we modeled what the influenza virus would look like in a small country of 21,000 people. The SIR model was enhanced by the SEIR model with the account of the extra variable E which symbolized the people exposed to the virus. As time increases the initial value of susceptible people will closely resemble the amount of resistant people by the end of the pandemic. Again the model can be used to predict the behavior of an epidemic diseases in years to come E which is the number people who are infected but not yet infectious over time. SEIR Model Infectious diseases One of the most useful reasons for solving SIR/SEIR models Took data from previous year (2011-2012) Solved models with new data, obtained new constants Used constants in next year (2012-2013) Data from 2011-2012 created undesirable results Still managed to show a reasonable solution SEIR MODEL Started with multiple notebooks for each different model/situation Input CDC data as a whole, used various initial values Calculated goodness of fit in a table along with their respective combinations of constants Incremented values Random values in a specific range Found minimal goodness of fit, and resolved model Graphed against CDC Data and calculated error/RMS values Manipulated values again to verify! The CDC receives its data from the Epidemiology and Prevention Branch in Influenza Division Year round, they collect, gather and analyze information on the influenza virus in the United States, through different types of surveillance Many organizations collaborate through this branch Some of the organizations include the U.S. World Health Organization (WHO) and National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS) laboratories
Transcript: *As a group we talked about different things we knew about and could do a project on Direction we are taking now.. Lab.. *We decided to do Tetralogy of Fallot *My brother has this heart condition so I am familiar about it *Everyone thought it was a good idea to do because not a lot of people know about it. Why we're interested.. *We all were in agreement the whole time SAM: *We all have pretty much decided this is the topic we want to do Epidemiology By Samantha, Casey, Katie, Carver *We are doing this lab to understand why people are becoming more resistant to antibiotics. We are breeding antibiotic resistant e-coli. *We talked about illness or problems friends or family members had *Brother has it *Its not common Direction we took: How Directions May of Changed Sticking With The Idea? *Patient organizations *Fundraisers *Groups to bond with other patients KATIE: *We don't think it will change because we are all in agreement on this topic and have started research *We looked at all our options CASEY: *Exposure *Many resources *We Could Help/Make a difference Needs arise: *There are many symptoms that can be changed *People with this condition have limited cures for it Needs for patient include Picture.. Thanks for listening.. *Directions didn't change much for our group *It is also something that not a lot of people know about so it makes us all more interested in doing the research for it.
Transcript: Louis Pasteur is most famous for his discovery of pasteurization. He found that bacteria was responsible for souring wine and beer. In 1864 the scientific community accepted his findings about germs and where they came from. He also studied numerous diseases in hopes to find a cure. Pasteur and his team were the first to find a cure for rabies and prove it worked (1885). John Snow Rhazes was a Persian Physician who was the first person to differentiate between smallpox and measles. He wrote his findings in al-Judari wa al-Hasbah (On Smallpox and Measles). The book was written sometime after 900. He also used Hippocratic Method for clinical observation. Marie Curie Alexander Fleming (460 B.C. - 377 B.C.) Hippocrates is considered to be the founder of modern medicine. He broke away from the traditional view that the body was separate parts with no relation to one another, and formed the idea that the body was a whole and to achieve perfect health they must all be in balance. One of his greatest legacies is the Hippocratic Corpus; a collection of written works. Not all of the writings in the Hippocratic Corpus were written by Hippocrates, but the most important ones were. These include Airs, Waters, and Places, Aphorisms, and Ancient Medicine. These are estimated to have been written around 400 B.C.. John Snow was a physician London. He discovered that cholera was not caused by 'bad air', but germs that entered through the mouth. He was able to successfully stop an outbreak of cholera in Soho in 1854. Snow also helped shape the beginnings of anesthetics. He practiced using controlled dosages of chloroform, which made the drug safer and more effective. (1793-1859) (1813-1858) Thomas Sydenham (1716-1794) A Brief History of Epidemiology By Ivy Phillips Hippocrates (1843-1910) Robert Koch Epidemiology Through the Ages (865 - 925) Lemuel Shattuck was an important figure in public health. In 1850 he published his Sanitation Report that established a model for all other states to follow. In 1839 he founded the American Statistical Association. This was one of the first organizations that collected and analyzed statistics. He made great discoveries about anthrax during 1872-1880. He found that anthrax was transmitted from animal to animal through blood. He innovated the way bacteria was stained. He made staining better and more visible, making observations easier. Koch also worked on Tuberculosis in the 1890s. His work led to better diagnostics for TB. In 1905 he received the Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine. (1822-1895) While working in a hospital he noticed a mold growing in one of the culture dishes being used to grow the staphylococci germ (1928). As he was observing the mold he noticed it had a bacteria-free circle around it. Fleming grew the mold in a pure culture and found that it would kill many dangerous types of bacteria. He called it penicillin. Two other scientists made the penicillin available in drug form, which helped cure many illnesses at the time. Marie Curie began working with uranium rays after Roentgen and Becquerel published their findings on rays. As she studied minerals she found they all had different levels of radioactivity (a term she coined). In 1898 she and her husband announced the discovery of two new elements; radium and polonium. They proved that radium could kill living cells, which gave way to radioactive treatment. Diseases like cancer could be treated with radioactivity. In 1903 she became the first woman in France to complete her doctorate. Also in 1903 Marie, her husband, and Becquerel shared the Nobel Prize for Physics. (1624-1689) James Lind was a doctor that sailed on different ships. During his time on board he observed the disease called scurvy. Scurvy effected many sailors during this time. In 1747 he performed an experiment on 12 sailors with scurvy, feeding them a different diet. The sailors he fed citrus fruits became better. He concluded that scurvy was caused because of a vitamin C deficiency. Lemuel Shattuck (1867-1895) Louis Pasteur James Lind (1881-1955) Thomas Sydenham is remembered to be the 'English Hippocrates' because he put emphasis on accurate observations and ethical clinical procedures. He was the first person to differentiate between measles and scarlet fever. He published his findings in a book called Methodus curandi febres (The Method of Curing Fevers) in 1666. He is best known for his work on fevers. Rhazes
Transcript: Epidemiologists The medical detectives What does an Epidemiologist do? How to become an Epidemiologist? STEP 1 Masters Degree in Epidemiology (2 years) STEP 2 Internship (12 months) STEP 3 Choose! Research or Clinical practice? 8-10 hour days 4-50 hours per week Typically work in state health departments Sources- Elearn Portal- http://www.elearnportal.com/careers/science-and-math/epidemiologists WHO Online -http://www.who.int/topics/epidemiology/en/ United South Inc. - http://www.usetinc.org/programs/uset-thps/tribalepicenter/definingepidemiology.aspx PLAN AND DIRECT future studies of diseases and illnesses RESEARCH different illnesses and diseases COLLABORATE with pharmacists to find out ways to contain outbreaks Average Salary - $55,000/y $1,480/bi-weekly
Transcript: huddle Mrs. Rossi huddle to crowd together crowd huddle separate
Transcript: Epidemiologists are often are hired through state or local health departments, hospitals and colleges or universities. Salary and Job Outook Invesigate patterns and causes of diseases and injury. Also they work to reduce the occerence and the risk of negative health outcomes. Use mathematical models to track the process of infectious diseases. Track: transmission persistence of pathogen in host immuno-epidemiology virulence strain structure and interaction evolution and spread of resistance. SIR Model: Consist of 3 variables S-susceptible I-infectious R- recovered.Used for Measles,Mumps and Rubella. How to become a Epidemiologist Education The 2012 median salary for an epidemiologist was $ 65,270 per year or $31.38 per hour. Math Needed Number of jobs in 2012: 5,100 Job outlook, 2012-22: 10% (As fast as average) Employment change, 2012-22: 500 Research and development in physical, engineering and $92,070 life science General Med./ Surgical $73,810 hospital College, University, $66,960 and professional school State local govt. $59,090 An Epidemiogist must have a master's degree in a related field for an accredited institution. Job Outlook Epidemiology Laboratories College Algebra Trigonometry Calculus I & II Applied Data Analysis Survey and Research Methods Mathematical Statistics Biostatistics The lowest 10% made less than $42.620 and the top 10% earned more than $108,320. Work Environment Math Application What does a Epidemiologist do? Fieldwork Offices Salary
Transcript: tools: rates / ratio / proportions Quantitative epidemiology Compare disease frequency in different population Diseases are not uniformly distributed time + place + person 'Descriptive Epidemiology' 'Analytical Epidemiology' test hypotheses develop scientifically sound health programmes, interventions & policies understand determinants of diseases *there were 500 deaths from motor vehicle accidents in City A during 1985. measures the occurence of event in a population during a period of time comprises: numerator, denominator, time, multiplier ratio of white blood cells relative to red cells is 1:600 or 1/600, meaning that for each white cell, the are 600 red cells. Ratio formula Disease Frequency Disease Determinants 500 new cases of an illness in a population of 30000 in a year. = 500/30000 X 1000 = 16.7 per 1000 per year in cases of accidents, the number of accidents 'per 1000 vehicle' or 'per million vehicle-miles' will be a more useful denominator many of them may not be using vehicles describe distribution & magntude of health & disease problem Death rate = Number of deaths in 1 year Mid-year population example number of children with malnutrition at a certain time Definition of Epidemiology number of times an event has occured in a population, during a specific time-period part of denominator in 'rate' but not 'ratio' Basic measurements in epidemiology number of all current cases of a specified disease existing at a given time estimated population at the same point in time 100 all current cases (old & new) existing at a given point in time. Rate provide data essential for planning, implementation & evaluation Prevent + Control + Treat Incidence commonly used measures I keep 6 honest serving men; they taught me all I know. Their names are what, why, when, how, where & who information on deaths is analyzed and the resulting tabulations are made available by each government Point prevalence either related to population / total events number of existing cases of a specified disease during a given period of time interval estimated mid-interval population at risk mid-year population population at risk person-time person-distance sub-groups of population number of children with scabies at a certain time mortality, morbidity, disability, natality ... *definitions need to be clear tools of measurement = categories of rates Denominator no of children with influenza at a certain time total number of children in village at a certain time 1) crude rates 2) specific rates 3) standardized rates ratio which indicates the relation in magnitude of a part of the whole numerator is always included in denominator. usually expressed as percentage Related to population Disease Distribution limitations of mortality data 1000 Measurement of Mortality relation in size between 2 random quantities numerator not a component of denominator x : y or x y Proportions Numerator Prevalence crude death rate specific death rate case fatality rate (ratio) proportional mortality rate (ratio) survival rate number of new cases occuring in a defined population during a specified period of time Epidemiology Epidemiology VS Clinical Medicine - unit of study population VS cases - goes to community VS coming to Dr Numerator & Denominator identify etiological factors in pathogenesis of diseases 1000 Related total events 100 number of new cases of specific disease ing a given time period population at risk during that period incomplete reporting of deaths lack of accuracy lack of uniformity Aims of Epidemiology Based on Jim Harvey's speech structures formula The study of the distribution & determinants of health-related states or events in specified populations, & the application of this study to the control of health problems Period Prevalence 100
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