Conceptual Model
Transcript: Valuing the Use of Marine Grazers as aTool for Facilitating Coral Reef Restoration in the Florida Keys Conceptual Framework and Preliminary Cost Model Brandon Sosa1, Mahadev Bhat, Mark Butler IV Background Background Benthic Cover Benthic Cover Reef benthos (bottom) is made up of: Coral Branching and bouldering Macroalgae Turf algae Sponges Free space Coral Cover Branching Bouldering Encrusting Coral Macroalgae Direct competitor for space on reefs Phase shifts occur from complex coral dominated reefs to flat macroalgae dominated reefs Macroalgae 2017 and 2019 Turf algae Traps sediment Impedes coral recruitment Compete for space Turf algae Free Space, Sponges, Octocorals Other Can compete for space Does provide other reef benefits Complexity vs Cover Reef Complexity overexploitation collapse Healthy Reefs, Healthy Fish Reef Fisheries Reef fish create nutrient hotspots for coral Fish use coral reefs has habitat, protection and nurseries Fish are attracted to complexity more than actual coral cover Predictor of Biomass Marine Grazers To combat the overgrowth of algae Revert coral-algal phase shift Eat algae and not coral Planned to be reared and stocked on restored reefs Marine Grazers FKNMS Mission: Iconic Reefs FL Keys Restoration 20-year plan to restore corals and enhance grazer populations to manage algae Multi-million dollar plan No BCA or in depth economic anaylsis Costs *Grazer costs is an estimate and based soley on urchins **exploring alternative means of productions for grazers and will be surveying the mariculture labs for both crabs and urchins Conceptual Framework Framework Linking coral restoration to economic benefits Create a stochasitc BCA based on bioeconomic modeling Bioeconomic Model Preliminary Cost Model Literature on coral-algal models All parameters were estimated using empirical studies, with the exception of grazing, which may vary based on, for example, local fishing practices. coral-algal models Blackwood et al. 2018, models interpreted from Mumby et al. 2007 alternative stable state models shift from high to low coral cover F = 1 - C - M - T Mumby et al. 2007, Fung et al. 2011, and Blackwood et al. 2018 (1) (2) coral-fisheries models Fish models for the FL Reef Tract Commercial, recreational, grazers and aqaurium fishes Biomass related to coral and fishing impacts coral-fisheries models Zuercher et al. 2023 (TFEL FIU) Habitat Influence on Fish Stock Management Scenarios Mission: Iconic Reefs NOAA's Coral Restoration Plan Structure Addition Fish Closures Management scenarios Zuercher et al. 2023 (TFEL FIU) Will need to account for ecological lag of benefits and capture economic uncertainties algal-grazer relationships algal-grazer relationships Models for grazing fish *need to modify for urchins and crabs grazing of Macro and turf algaes coral-grazer relationships coral-grazer relationships # of urchins Cano et al. 2021 Model Parameters Step 1 | Step 2 | Step 3 model parameters Coral Restoration with and without grazer addition Grazer addition Mortality will be lower for bouldering coral and intial branching outplants with the addition of grazers Linking reef complexity to grazer additions may require coral-algal models if direction relationships are missing Change of macro algae due to grazers with addition of coral restoration should experience higher reef complexity after 1-5 years depending on ssp. restored. Coral Restoration Model Same parameters Model change in Coral Cover and Complexity over 20 years Coral-restoration model Biomass predictive model Zuercher et al. 2023 relates reef complexity to fish biomass for FL Keys Reef Fisheries Examine change in biomass from coral restoration with grazer additions and without grazer additions Can extend Zuercher et al 2023 to include an economic breakdown of benfits of other management alternatives (fish closures and artificial structure) Coral-fisheries
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