Transcript: "Leaving the EU would be like 'prisoner escaping jail" Tense relations with Brussels The potential consequences of Brexit So.... should we say goodbye or not ? An old issue.... ... and now a referendum Boris Johnson, London Mayor, 6 March 2016
Transcript: Vacations in England Big topic in the news Chapters 1. Why this topic? 2. What is Brexit? 3. What was the occasion? 4. How did the referendum went? 5. What are the disadventages and the adventages for England? 6. Which group is protesting? 7. When is Brexit official? 8. Little quiz & the end How did the referendum went? Why this topic? David Cameron Queen's speech What is Brexit? What was the occasion?
Transcript: Brexit means Brexit What kind of trade agreements will be possible to accomplish between the EU and the UK? the EU & the UK The European Economic Area (EEA) The European Free Trade Association (EFTA) Bilateral Treaties Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) The Treaty of Paris (1951) The European Coal and Steel Community The Treaty of Rome (1957) The Economic Community The Maastricht Treaty (1992) The European Union The European Union and european integration THE EU : a Supranational organisation THE UK: Sovereign nation-state Parliamentary sovereignty BREXIT 51.9 % - 48.1% The EEA, EFTA and the Single market The European Economic Area (EEA) Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and EU member countries Guarantees equal rights and obligations in the Single Market The European Free Trade Association (EFTA) Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland Intergovernmental organisation set up for the promotion of free trade Bilateral Treaties Switzerland The EEA, EFTA and the Single Market CETA The Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) Free trade Agreement between Canada and the European Union (CETA) Excludes trade of Services Will open the two markets for imports and exports 98 % of goods traded between Canada and the EU free of duty 1 Time constraint The Lisbon Treaty (2007) Amended the treaty on the European Union (TEU) and The Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) Included an Article stating how to leave the Union " 3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period. " 2 Include Trade of Services Lower or eliminate tariffs, but lead to border checks and increse non-tariff barriers to trade 29th of March 2019 CETA WTO High tariffs and the issue of the Irish border would be severe. +2 years? The future of the EU The Future of the European union The Economist: Creaking at 60. The future of the European Union. March 25th 2017 Additional Referenses
Transcript: A Customs Union with the EU would be a system that sees the UK mirror the European Union and tie us into the EU with no say over any rules or laws the Eu wish to implement. Least popular with pro Brexiteers. https://next-media-api.ft.com/renditions/15246757608500/1920x1080.mp4 Possible Economic Impacts of a Soft Brexit Timeline of Brexit Events 31 December 2020- The Transition period is due to end and the new economic and political relationship between the UK and EU begin. 23 June 2016- The UK votes to leave the EU, with 51.9% of the vote. 13 July 2016- Theresa may becomes Prime Minister. 29 March 2017- Article 50 is triggered. Leaving the EU and switching to use of WTO trade rules could cost UK businesses up to 65.5billion a year.Over a 15 year period, this would lower the Countries GDP by between 5.4% and 9.5%. Analysts believe the UK might find it hard to match the negotating power of the EU with other partners around the Globe. Threats to UK financial services- £10Billion in tax revenues, a loss of 70,000 Jobs. Although many impacts of a hard Brexit have been calculated, the softer option is less clear. Since the referendum, The UK suffered downward credit rating revisions. Remain in the Customs Union Brexit, Brexit, Brexit What are the Options? 19 March 2018- The UK and EU make decisive steps in negotiations agreements including status of EU citizens and a transitional period. Northern Ireland issue still to be resolved. 31 October 2018- The Eu's Chief negotiator has said negotations must be complete before the end of October to give the 27 countries time to sign off the deal. 29 March 2019- Brexit day- The UK leaves at 23:00 GMT. Maximum facilitation A plan that would potentially dramatically reduce customs controls and barriers between the UK and EU. Goods would be electronically tracked and pre-cleared with tax authorities. A 'trusted trader' scheme would be employed to allow firms to move goods without having to pay duty every time their goods crossed the border. This is the preffered option among pro brexiteers as it allows the UK to strike independent deals with Non-eu countries. Cost to businesses of 17 billion pounds a year. Possible Economic Impacts of a Hard Brexit This option involves the UK leaving the EU, the single market, and the customs union with no deal and no future trade agreement. The UK and EU would both apply tariffs on goods and services. The 'Doomsday/Armageddon' Scenario- A Leaked government paper was released this week to discuss the severe scenarios the UK could face if it leaves the EU without a deal. According to this paper, The UK would run short of medicines, food and fuel within two weeks of leaving the EU. "The port of dover would collapse on day one", "You would have to medevac medicine into Britain"(Joshua Hughes, 2018). The Government has also revealed plans to section off a 13 mile strect of the M20 in order to hold 200 lorries in the event of Severe cross-Channel Congestion. An option favoured by remainers, goods coming to Britain would be electronically tracked by British officials. Firms selling to the UK would have to pay the same tariffs as if their goods were headed to the EU. The money collected is then sent to Brussels. If the UK set a trade tariff below that of the EU, companies would have the difference refunded. The partnership would in theory allow the UK to leave the customs union and negotiate free trade agreements with Non-Eu countries. It would also potentially remove the need for a physical EU-UK customs border between Northern Ireland and the ROI. Theresa Mays Brexit inner cabinet, including leading Brexiteers such as Liam Fox, David Davis and Boris Johnson are trying to force the prime minister to ditch this option. Cost to businesses of 3.4 billon a year. No Deal Brexit A Customs Union Partnership 26 June 2017- Formal Negotiations on withdrawal begin between the UK and the EU. 13 December 2017- Rebel Tory MPs side with the Opposition, forcing the Goverment to vote on a final Brexit deal. 15 December 2017- The EU agrees to move onto the second phase of negotiations after an agreement is reached on Divorce Bill, Irish Border and Eu Citizen rights.
Transcript: 19th March: If deal rejected, UK has until April 12 to decide way forward (The Telegraph, 2019) Theresa May asks EU for Brexit delay until 30 June (Google Finance, 2019) Speaker says PM cannot bring back deal to parliament without substantial changes She says she "would struggle until the last possible moment to achieve an orderly Brexit, saying the interests of Germany, Britain and the EU were at stake." "When Mrs May remained silent about her fallback options, the leaders decided to concoct a timetable of their own—without her even being present in the room." M&S contacts food suppliers for help in reducing costs following joint venture with Ocado "Dealing a blow to savers desperate for an increase after years of low returns" (LondonStockExchange, 2019) Kevin Tsujihara quits: Warner Bros boss resigns amid affair allegations "Theresa May was maddeningly vague about what she would do if Britain’s Parliament once again rejects the Brexit deal". 21st March: (The Guardian, 2019) 19th March: Both crashed jets were Boeing 737 Max 8s, a variant of the best-selling aircraft in history 7,300 (Indian Express, 2019) 20th March: 22nd March: Interest rate HELD at 0.75 percent as Brexit chaos costs savers millions (The Economist, 2019) Metro Bank is now the second most shorted company on the UK stock market. News: 18/3/19 to 24/3/19 Prime minister says longer delay would mean a failure to deliver on 2016 referendum EU leaders agree extension to May 22 - if MPs back deal Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank start discussing a merger 18th March: (The Economist, 2019) (Foreign Policy, 2019) (The Guardian, 2019) (The Guardian, 2019) (Evening Standard, 2019) The FAA has now grounded all of the planes “There will be a problem with June. It is absolutely not in the interests of the European Union for it to beyond the date of the European elections on 22 May". (BBC News, 2019) Prime minister will present her plan for a third time; if it was passed the delay would allow time for her to implement it. Why Brexit Is Europe’s Finest Hour Prime Minister Theresa May "slinking off to Brussels" to plead for more time to dig herself out of her impossibly deep Brexit hole 21st March: (Finance.co.uk, 2019) John Bercow’s shock move, which drew immediate criticism from May’s allies, suggested he believed such a "fundamental change" would involve a renegotiation at EU level (BBC News, 2019) The European Union is poised to take control of Britain’s exit by rejecting Theresa May’s request for a three-month delay and setting a new withdrawal date of no later than 22 May. Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank, Germany’s two largest listed lenders, said that they would begin exploring a merger. M&S contacts suppliers to help Ocado partnership flourish (PoundSterling Live, 2019) 18th March: Theresa May told by 1922 committee head that Tory MPs want her to quit 7,355 24th March: What's going on with the UK economy? (BBC News, 2019) (Sky News, 2019) 7,324 Warner Bros boss Kevin Tsujihara quits over Brit actress affair claims Shares in Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank have both risen after they finally confirmed that merger talks are going on. "Although Metro Bank recently came top of a consumer satisfaction league table, financial sharks are circling the challenger bank." Brexit latest news: EU leaders offer UK delay to May 22 - if MPs back Theresa May's deal May urges MPs to back her deal to secure May extension Brexit: EU poised to insist on withdrawal no later than 22 May Mortgage holders will welcome the reprieve, with payments unlikely to increase dramatically. 22nd March: . (Express, 2019) 19th March: (Foreign Policy, 2019) John Bercow: "the question may not be brought forward again during the same session” (Bloomberg, 2019) Actress Charlotte Kirk is "deeply saddened" he resigned amid allegations they had an affair and "he tried to get her roles in shows". Global stock markets gain as investors predict cautious Federal Reserve – as it happened Third Brexit vote must be different - Speaker WarnerMedia, the parent company, launched an investigation following a Hollywood Reporter story that detailed text messages between Mr Tsujihara and Charlotte Kirk dating back to 2013. (The Guardian, 2019) Jeremy Corbyn accusing May of having “no plan” and embarking on a reckless course. (UK Investing, 2019) The European Council extends Brexit, with strings attached 21st March: Everything you need to know about the Boeing 737 Max airplane crashes Doubt in the eyes of refulators ever since it revealed it made an error in calculating how much "shock absorbing capital" it was holding. Theresa May has requested extension to 30 June but EU wants earlier deadline Lion Air Flight 610 and Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 have rocked the aviation industry 18th March: John Bercow’s shock move, which drew immediate criticism from May’s allies, suggested he believed such a "fundamental change" would involve a renegotiation at EU level "American Airlines To Extend Flight Cancellations of
Transcript: In a decisive referendum(51.9% to 48.1%), Britain, has voted to diverge its path from that of the EU, after having a really long and a rocky relationship. Coming across a long process journey, every economist and politician sits contemplating on multi-dimensional Brexit impacts and the possible negotiations post-brexit. Net Population =20.3 Million The Repercussions Of Brexit THE SUPER STATE'S BREAKDOWN Norwegian-Style EEA Agreement ''Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.'' UK is free to agree FTAs independently. UK's relationship with EU, governed by the FTA. Tariff barriers are unlikely, but UK will have to agree to the common standards and regulations. The recent terror attacks in Paris and Brussels have raised the security concerns of all the EU states, and the amount the EU members spend on security, is laughably little. Anybody has to wonder where the extra funding for any European army would come from. 3 Distinct Models (Most Likely): ECONOMY AND TRADE Rise Of Nationalism in UK £4/€4.64 Friday, August 26, 2016 THE DEBATE ARTICLE 50 SOVEREIGNTY FDI & INVESTMENTS Its reverberations have gone beyond the borders of the United Kingdom with far-reaching political and economic implications for Europe and the World at large. Causes which triggered Brexit Macedonia: 2.1 Million SPS, Rajendra Nagar Impact of Brexit on EU and UK EXPANSION OF THE EU EU's economy has been a dysfunctional economic entity, the Euroskeptics argue. EU has failed to address the economic issues that had been developing since 2008, including The Eurozone Debt Crisis and the failure of Austerity measures adopted by the EU to strengthen its economy and the member states. SECURITY & BORDER CONTROL PROJECTED MODELS FOR BREXIT Population & Immigration Security & Border Control Economy & Austerity Sovereignty & Political Elitism Immigration UK joins the European Market Area and maintains access to single market. UK must adopt EU standards and regulations UK will be unable to impose immigration resrictions. Swiss-Style Bilateral Accords The outcome of Brexit remains uncertain and unpredictable! Aftermath of the Eurozone Debt Crisis on the EU states, causing the Brexit! BREXIT-THE CURRENT SIT'EU'ATION FTA-based Approach Agree upon a set of bilateral accords. Gives UK the acces to the single market(in specific sectors). UK becomes regulation-bound in the sectors covered. Negotiates FTAs seperately. Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/ Arguments in favour and against Brexit Overview Serbia: 7.2 Million A British social attitude survey found out that more than 3/4th of Britons want the country’s immigration policy to be reduced. This has led to a steep rise of Nationalism among the Brits. Some EU leaders argued that aiding the refugees was a moral obligation.But EU opponents saw immigration as a national issue, as it affected the internal life of the country. BREXIT. WHAT NEXT? THE LISBON TREATY Albania : 2.8 Million Turkey: 7.6 Million Montenegro: 0.6 Million EMPLOYMENT & JOBS EU BEYOND BREXIT TRADE
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