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So tell: Is there an Oil Peak?
Transcript of So tell: Is there an Oil Peak?
How about the Marketing, or even political, Paradigm? Economists Do tell: Is there an Oil Peak? Double click to crop it if necessary (cc) photo by Metro Centric on Flickr (cc) photo by Franco Folini on Flickr (cc) photo by jimmyharris on Flickr (cc) photo by Metro Centric on Flickr Physisists Do tell: - Reserves go up when prices go up
- There is a balance between supply and demand outlook What can be trusted? - The Whole Globe being Investigated?
- Reseves to be Trusted?
- If you Search you will find?
- Could high price pick it up by itself? - They don´t find that much
- So, no more to find
- There is a limited amount - What is Physics about?
- What is Economics about?
- How do they work?
- What do they do/dont?
- Where are the limits?
- Could everything be correct within their Paradigms?
- Is it consistent?
- What Paradigm is of use? Can nothing be trusted? Prices, GDP and Consumtion - Modelling but what modelling?
- Correlations but what correlations?
- Does Cause and Effect apply?
- Lets drop a pen and see if it applies
- The connections between what They Say they Found and what there Is
- The connection between what the Anonymous Market in the Long run will do versus Actors Supplying and Paying for oil Now
Notice: It is difficult to be careful with words! ? - What is Included/Excluded in their models (Time/Corporations)?
- What are their "world-assumptions"? When we ask about Peak Oil:
- Do we see "oil" as an Economic term?
- Or should we see "oil" as a Physical term?
- Does it matter how we see "oil"?
Conclusion: Oil is not oil is not oil is not oil!
Even oil could be so many different things Our "view" on "oil" is embedded in our paradigm
Or: Our paradigm nearly follows form the view on oil we have
From that: lot of the basics do follow "by itself"! - Where is it?
- How to know that?
- Models of earth and/or Discovery trends
- There is a limit of our "real" Earth-knowledge (we base it on models) Not so much Claiming:
Mainly trying to understand "what" others actually do understand! History versus Future "Facts" versus "Estimations" Connected or not? Different Estimations over time Typical ideas
from Economics And I want to know When there is a peak Why don´t physics ask?
- What would happen to prices if they found More/Less?
- Is there a difference between what Could be and what Is found
- What does actually determines what Is found?
- Could the answer to what determines what Is found be found within the field of Natural Science?
Because (human action) it is not really part of it! Why don´t Economics ask?
- How is oil developed?
- Who/What "decides" where the balance-point between supply and demand is (Who is the "Market")?
- What is actually technically possible to do?
Because it is not really part of it!
(Human action boiled down to "Rational Economic behaviour - now") Don´t forget:
neither Marketing nor politics do cover Physcis/Economcis Some learning-points:
- Paradigms Rule: Even formulating problems are part of it
- Paradigms are important, and strong = Power = Leadership
- Paradigms limits, therefore several are of use
- A way to understand a paradigm is to see it from the outside
- Another way to understand a paradigm is to see its inside
- The globe have use of people that know singular paradigms
- The globe have use of people that can walk between paradigms
- But paradigms should be respected, not made fun of And not if it is good with oil or not (the moral question - even though embedded in many ways) Did we forget our implicit "Real" question: Assuming a Peak, or a non peak: How would it effect our investments?
Depends on our investment, time horizon etc
So why did we ask?
It is an art to formulate the correct question!
Don´t always take questions for granted A case for knowledge formation learning and paradigm insights