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On the Relation Between Tourism and Trade: A Network Experiment
Transcript of On the Relation Between Tourism and Trade: A Network Experiment
Tourism and Trade: A Network Experiment Data and Modelling Experiments The arrivals of non-resident visitors (overnight and same-day visitors) at national borders of a country The exchange of merchandise trade across international borders or territories. Over the past half century, the world has rapidly become globalized, and that resulted in significant growth in world trade and world income.
Free trade agreements caused much higher growth in international trade which led to further interdependence of economic activities between nations.
As of 15 January 2012, 319 bilateral or multilateral agreements were in place. Jigar Brahmbhatt
Ronaldo Menezes BioComplex Laboratory
Computer Sciences, Florida Tech
Melbourne, USA Globalization has made tourism a popular consumer activity.
International Tourism has expanded dramatically over the past six decades.
Tourism has played major role in
Increasing foreign currency earnings and
Developing strength of the economy
of many developing nations of the world
Trade agreements may promote tourism activities and services. The European Union, for example, a confederation of 27 member states, provides both a free trade area and an open border. Importance ?? The study of the potential complementary relationship between flows of goods and international tourism is of major interest, as it can promote economic growth.
This relationship reflects the importance of business strategies that capture the benefits from the complementarity between tourism and trade. Related Work Kulendran and Wilson (2000), first to examine the relationship between Australia and its major travel and trading partners.
Cointegration and Granger-causality approaches.
Hypothesis 1: That business travel leads to international trade
Hypothesis 2: That international trade leads to international travel
Hypothesis 3: That international travel, other than business travel,
also leads to international trade. Trade as predictor variables for tourism demand,
Turner and Witt (2001)
Trade influences business tourism demand. (NZ)
Phakdisoth and Kim (2007)
Bilateral trade positive correlation with the tourist arrivals (Laos)
Muhammad and Andres (2008)
Trade one of the key factors to drive the tourism flow (Uganda) Effect of tourism on future imports
Fischer and Gil-Alana (2009) - Spanish wine and German tourists What was missing Consideration of all the countries
Consideration of all the traded goods
Data availability with proper tools
and computation power.
In network studies,
Consideration of edge weights Five year global trade
and tourism data
(2006-2010) United Nations
Trade and Development
(204 countries) United Nations
World Tourism Organization
(229 countries) Trade – Merchandise exports in millions Tourism – Tourist arrivals Wrote Java parser : To convert .csv into .graphml an open source platform for graph visualization and analysis Trade and Tourism network characteristics: Pearson Correlation Analysis Measure of the strength of a linear association between two variables.
The ratio between the covariance and the standard deviation of both objects. The correlation coefficient is dimensionless number; between -1 ≤ r ≤ 1. A high correlation between two variables does not imply a cause-and-effect relationship. Community structure in Tourism Network of 2010 Community structure in Trade Network of 2010 Blondel at el. <<Fast unfolding of communities in large networks, in Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment (2008)>> Saudi Arabia --> travel policies
(Requires advances visas for foreigners and strict rules and regulations to follow but citizens of the Gulf Cooperation Council nations)
Saudi Arabia --> one of the major oil exporters
(The country trades with all top nations of the world) South Africa --> one of the largest producer and exporter of gold diamond (has the top developed countries in its trade network)
Organisations like 'The Regional Tourism Organization of Southern Africa (RETOSA)' mainly focus on promotion and marketing of tourism in southern region of Africa
(led most of the southern african countries having regional nations in their tourism network) Ego network sub-network that revolved around a single node ‘ego’
Known as neighbourhood networks
Undirected, directed or weighted
Useful in measuring homophily or heterogeneity between egos and alters.
Used mostly for social network analysis
Comparison of trade and tourism ego networks of top countries Ego Network Analysis common countries in top 21 countries' trade and tourism ego-networks. Conclusion High correlation between weighted in-degree and weighted out-degree of trade and tourism network.
High PageRank correlation
Regionalism in Tourism network (community analysis) but not in Trade network.
Ego network comparison shows that countries have similar top partners both in trade and tourism. Future Work Will raise interest in finding more useful insights about the relationship between global trade and tourism using network science approach.
Ego-network comparison can be done using different factors than just weighted degree
Networks can be generated and examine using normalized weights on the basis of GDP per capita, tourist arrivals per capita or any other important economic indicator.
Dynamic evolution of both trade and tourism network over the years can be observed. A Strategy and Action Plan for Irish Trade, Tourism and Investment to 2015 by Department of Enterprise, Trade & Innovation
Before - UK, US & Eurozone
Now Focus - Brazil, Russia, India and China
(the BRIC countries), Gulf States, Middle East On the Relation Between
Tourism and Trade: A Network Experiment http://www.djei.ie/trade/bilateral/Strategy_and_Action_Plan_to_2015.pdf Sample file of data set for only one year (trade_2010) (www.wto.org)