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BREXIT

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by

maike schmid

on 18 January 2016

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Transcript of BREXIT

By the end of 2017
Why the UK is questioning membership
I say to our European partners, we have real concerns. Our concerns are not outlandish or unreasonable
UPCOMING: Another Referendum!
Reasons for Referendum
Money

Legal

Not a member of the Eurozone

Migration


A Closer Look
Net contributor to the EU and money is used across Europe to level the playing field for the EU’s poorer countries (new roads, broadband)

The “bill” is rising as the U.K’s economy improves £11.3 billion ($17.4 billion) in 2013, compared to £2.7 billion in 2008

EU membership is in the way of
trade ties outside the trading bloc
£1.25
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Maike Schmid
We already know...
Historical Background


1961: United Kingdom applies
France vetoes (and again in 1967)

1969: Hague Summit -> 1973 UK joins

1984: "I want my money back"




Harold Wilson stated in the Labour manifesto the referendum was to “seek a fundamental renegotiation of the terms of entry” after a “political mistake” by Heath

67% voted to stay part of the EEC
33% voted to discontinue the UK's membership

"BREXIT"
Will Britain Leave the European Union?
Following the general election in May 2015, Prime Minister David Cameron reiterated the Conservative party's commitment to hold an "in-out" referendum on Britain's membership of the EU.
1975 1st referendum
MONEY
European Court of Human Rights in certain high-profile cases has made difficult to deport foreign-born criminals

If the U.K. moves away from the ECHR's influence, it joins Belarus as the only European countries not to comply with it.

Tighten ties during the credit crisis. Further integration is expected, questioning the position of the 10 members outside the Eurozone – led by Britain

EUROZONE
Unexpectedly high level of migration from several old Soviet bloc states after they joined the EU (>14 million citizens)

New source of cheap labor threatens workers

Migrants able to claim welfare benefits in the U.K.

MIGRATION
IMPACT
LEGAL
On Gross Domestic Product
Worst case: UK fails to make a trade deal with the EU and does not pursue a free trade agenda

Best case: UK strikes a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, pursues deregulation of its economy, and opens up almost fully to trade with the rest of the world

Realistic case: UK strikes a comprehensive trade deal with the EU but does nothing else
UK pursues free trade with the rest of the world and deregulation, in addition to an EU FTA.

PROS AND CONS
WHAT DOES BRITAIN WANT?
In Order for the UK to Stay, Cameron demands...
Allowing Britain to opt-out from the EU ambition to forge an "ever closer union" of the peoples of Europe

Giving greater powers to national parliaments to block EU legislation

Supporting the continued enlargement of the EU to new members but with new mechanisms in place to "prevent vast migrations across the Continent"

Providing access to new markets through hastened free trade deals with America and Asia

Creating safeguards to ensure changes in the single market cannot be imposed on non-eurozone members

Free British police forces from EU interference
ADDRESS MIGRATION ISSUE
Four-year delay for EU migrants wishing to claim in-work benefits, such as tax credits, or seeking access to social housing

Stopping migrants claiming child benefit for dependents living outside the UK

Removing migrants from the UK after six months if they have not found work

Restricting the right of migrants to bring non-EU family members into the UK

Speeding up deportation of convicted criminals

Longer re-entry bans for beggars and frauds removed from the UK

Extra money for communities with high levels of migrants

BIBLIOGRAPHY
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/05/27/why-would-the-uk-want-to-leave-the-eu.html

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jan/18/britain-europe-eu-essential-guide#101

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/14/brexit-what-would-happen-if-britain-left-eu-european-union-referendum-uk

http://www.theweek.co.uk/eu-referendum

http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/britain-and-the-eu/what-if-there-were-a-brexit/

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32695399

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11259473/David-Cameron-Im-ready-to-lead-Britain-out-of-Europe-if-migrant-reforms-fail.html

PROS
CONS
Trade power with other countries

no more paying for the "Black-sheep"

Remove work hour limit
Create a freer economic market, more sovereignty

U.K can fully decide in Border control issues

Remove threat to Britain's military freedom
British firms would face new tariffs

Lose free movement
UK firms can't employ other EU states' workers

Lose some military influence
Bigger influence if UK is inside the EU

Can lose millions of jobs linked to EU membership

Unpredictable economic performance
Full transcript