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The Adaptive Cycle - How systems change?

REC, VIU - Living Labs - Venice 2012

Béla Kuslits

on 10 December 2012

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Transcript of The Adaptive Cycle - How systems change?

the adaptive cycle initiation of the cycle (r phase) weak connectedness (starts to increase)
the system's potential is low
the new structure is evolving, high diversity
exploiting resources and opportunities
high resilience (but decreasing)
optimized for rapid growth conservation (K phase) high connectedness (dependencies)
the system's potential is very high
effectiveness in resource usage
specialization is increasing
diversity is low
resilience is low Collapse in the late K phase,
resilience is very low
even a small shock can initiate a collapse collapse or release (OMEGA phase) disintegration of the system
dependencies are high
but the potential rapidly decreasing
low functionality of the system
it can be a "creative destruction" too reorganization (ALPHA phase) most connections are lost
potential is increased
a new stable regime can appear
experimentation, invention
easy to change the rules Forward loop is for growth, development and effectiveness exploitation turns into resource effectiveness
the system becomes more and more connected
resilience is slowly decreasing
"normal life of the system" in a stable regime Back loop is for reorganization, experimentation, invention easier to initiate new rules
collapse turns into a new order
there isn't resilience and stable regime
it can be a transition to another regime Self-initiated
reorganization for avoiding a collapse, a system's manager can initiate a controlled reorganization.
this way, it is possible to increase resilience in the K phase and go back to a new r phase. most resoureces are lost
hard to reorganize itself
many system elements disappear
the state after collapse becomes a stable regime collapse trap
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