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2052: A Global Forcast for the next Forty Years

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Nicole Strickland

on 27 March 2015

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Transcript of 2052: A Global Forcast for the next Forty Years

Jorgen Randers
Norwegian academic, professor of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School, and practitioner in the field of future studies.
Ph.D. Management Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1973
M.S. Solid State Physics University of Oslo, 1968
Consulted companies all over the world
Notable companies:
Dow Chemical, Midland, Michigan; Economic Development Board of Rotterdam, Netherlands; Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, China (2050 Shanghi Plan)

Served on 20 corporate boards
Not For Profit Engagements: 10 institutions in which a majority of them were for 5+ years.

Author: Jørgen Randers
Co-authored
Limits to Growth
40 years ago
Little response to this report
Worry about what the future would look like
Decided necessary changes would not be made in time
Motivation for change
Why only 40 years?
Why Randers Wrote 2052
Class Predictions?
2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years
Class 2052
vs
Randers' 2052
What do you think the next 40 years will look like?
Think beyond your own life, and instead make a
global
prediction
How did Randers make his prediction?
General trends
Context
Colleagues opinions
Systems models and equations
Paradigm

Main Topics
Population Growth

Consumption, production, and food chain
CO2, Carbon Footprint, and Energy Use
Population Growth
Production, Consumption
CO2, Carbon Footprint, Energy Use
Problem
Individual rights will outweigh the common good.

The problem can not be solved immediately only mitigated for the time.

Population is increasing exponentially at a rate that the Earth cannot sustain it.

Immigration - Wealthy countries population growth plateaus vs poor countries rapid population growth trends.
Solutions
Stronger government will have to set up policies and laws in order maintain the population.

Industrialization will combat the population problem by slowing down the birthrate.

There are no solutions to reverse the population growth but only ways to maintain it.

Have fewer children
Conclusion

Population will peak in early 2040s at 8.1 Billion, then then decline at an increasing rate.

Women will have fewer children due to industrialization.

Life expectancy will increase

Deathrate will overtake Birthrate

In 2052 most of the worlds population will live in big cities.

Problem
Predictions
Solutions
Predictions
Problem

Energy and CO2 emissions will follow the GDP

Production increase = greater ecological footprint

In 2052, decline in productivity = decline in economic growth

Decline in 2052 is due to scarcity and harm done by over consumption.


Slower growth in productivity because of population decline. Due to older society and decline in birthrate.

After the peak of global production in 2052 there will be a decline. In the second half of the century resulting in stagnate economy.

The United States will be too busy fixing environmental damage and extracting scarce resources, causing goods and services production to decrease.

Predictions
Solutions
Increased consumption contributes to usage of limited resources (crops, minerals, ect.)

Consumption per person is on a steady incline, and combined with the exponentially growing population, the Earth will not sustain human life.

Greed create conflicts between wealthy companies and nations.
Focus economy on production of renewable resources (wind, solar, biomass).

Reduce the Ecological footprint per person.

Another solution could be to stabilize GDP and distribute that finite production in an equitable manner. (Would be extremely difficult and require intelligent population)

Improve the well-being of the people instead of focusing on growth of GDP.
Gradual change from mostly oil powered energy to wind, solar, and other renewable sources of energy.

Developed countries producing new technologies to slow emissions.

Cut CO2 footprint in everyday life.

If world leaders decided to spend 5% of the world GDP on reducing CO2 emissions every year for 20 years the world economy
20 year period of flat consumption of oil.

CO2 emissions will not peak around 2015, but instead around 2030 and then decline fairly rapidly

Increase in wind, solar, and biomass energy use, but in 2052 they will still only compose 40 percent of energy use.

Emissions in 2052 will be around the same as today.

Temperature increase will exceed plus 2 degrees Celsius.
Rises in CO2 levels will cause an increase in temperature, causing a rise in sea levels

Melting ice caps releases methane, which further warms the earth (positive feedback loop).

Dependency of developed countries on oil.
The human race is past the Earth's sustainability.

Drastic change is needed in order to provide for the common good of the human race.

Prepare for a dramatic change on the planet and every day lifestyles.
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