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Ethanol

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by

Felipe Cusnir

on 9 May 2014

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Transcript of Ethanol

US Ethanol
Largest regional retail transportation fuel market in the world.
Ethanol Consumption:

Approx. 1.7 billion gallons/yr
10% Blend in most CA gasoline


Trade:
10-15 million gallons imported to CA every MONTH
Ethanol price per gallon:

~$2.43 (Jun.2013)

Low Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS)
Requires
650 million gallons of sugarcane ethanol by 2016
Creates ethanol demand of more than
1 billion gallons by 2020

CALIFORNIA
Brazil

Sugarcane Sector:
Mills:
430

Growers:
70,000+
Market:
US $68b

Export:
US $16.2b

#1 Sugar Producer
(25%)
#2 Ethanol Producer

(36.4%)

Ethanol 2012-13:
Production:
35.7 billion liters

Internal demand:

80%
60% of light vehicle fleet is "Flex"
85% of new vehicles are "Flex"
25% Ethanol blend mandate (2013)

Exports to US in 2012:
2.05 billion liters
US $1.5 billion

Ethanol
Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPA)
Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2)
2007 Energy Independence and Security Act

Conventional ethanol:
From 12.6 billion (2011) gallons
To 15 billion (2015) gallons

Advanced Biofuels:
From 1.4 billion (2011) gallons
To 21 billion (2022) gallons



Policy
Thank You!
Stephen Cheung
Director of International Development - Port of Los Angeles
Director of International Trade - City of Los Angeles
scheung@portla.org

Felipe Cusnir
International Development - Port of Los Angeles
fcusnir@portla.org
EPA Definition:
Corn Ethanol Renewable Biofuel
Sugarcane Ethanol Advanced Renewable Biofuel

90% world production, consumption and trade:
U.S., Brazil, EU, Canada, China and Indonesia

90% of World Ethanol production:
US (corn, ~50%)
Brazil (sugarcane, ~40%)

Top Producers of Sugarcane:
Brazil (31%), India (19%), China (7%), Thailand (5%)

Superior liquid bulk infrastructure
Multiple third party logistics providers
Proprietary refinery terminals (support 3 of the region’s refineries)
Strategic location (6 major regional refineries)
within 2 miles of four refineries
within 15 miles of the remaining two refineries
Marine terminals: efficient pipeline connections to all major local refineries and third party storage facilities
Ethanol Storage Capacity

San Pedro Bay Ports:
48% of import/export on US West Coast
Marine logistics
Regional refineries handle more than half of transportation fuel in the state:
Chevron, ExxonMobil, Phillips 66, Valero, British Petroleum and Tesoro
Infrastructure & Logistics
Projected Market Size (CA):
2016:

650 million gallons, $1.7 billion
2020:
1 billion gallons, $2.5 billion

Emerging/Expanding Market Applications:
Implementation of E15
(15% ethanol, 85% gasoline)
E85
(85% ethanol, 15% gasoline)
for use in flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs)
Current California FFV:
~400,000 (about 1.5% of on-road vehicles)

Over 6 million FFVs in America and growing
Excess advanced biofuel credit:
Not enough cellulosic biofuel to meet RFS2 target
Cellulosic (2nd Generation) Ethanol Advancements in Brazil
Technological expertise and experience transfer
Brazilian mills:
sale or creation of a JV with a company with a larger balance sheet
Ethanol Market in Los Angeles

Taxes and Tariffs Expired (2011):

$0.45/gallon - Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit
$0.54/gallon - Imported Fuel Ethanol Tariff

Projections (2016):

Production:

314 billion gallons
Total trade between BR and US:

over 4 billion gallons

Trends (E10, E15, E85)


U.S. Advanced Biofuel Mandate (EPA & LCFS)
TRADE US-BRAZIL (2012)

US Export:

130 million gallons of corn ethanol
US Import:

400 million gallons of Brazilian ethanol
THE PORT OF LOS ANGELES
Government Agencies
Refineries/ Buyers
Suppliers & Traders
Storage
Facilities
Shipping Lines
Facts about Ethanol in the US (2012)

Number of Mills:
193

Production:
13.9 billion gallons
Consumption:
12.9 billion gallons
Gross Import:
490 million gallons
Gross Export:
715 million gallons

MARKET
OPPORTUNITIES
Full transcript