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Transcript of Fantasy Hack
To make our life easier
To make others' lives easier
To prove our friends
What did I want to Create?
An automated system that
Inputs a draft strategy
Outputs a win percentage
How does it work?
Repeats Draft and Season Simulator 1000 times
Using stochastic programming, for each of the other 9-11 teams in the fantasy league the system draws from a random distribution to model draft strategies for all the other players
In each round of the draft a player makes a decision based on his perceived value of the player
This is calculated by multiplying the position weight as determined by the draft strategy and discounting the value based on current roster makeup (so that you don't end up with 13 running backs).
The simulator runs through each draft round until all 10-12 teams have full rosters
To make life easier I ignored the week by week roster changes due to 'starting lineups' and injuries
This is a flaw but it drastically reduces complexity
A H2H schedule is determined wherein each team iteratively goes through a matchup with another team
Weekly scores are calculated using historical data
A weekly win is calculated by whichever team has the higher score in the H2H matchup
Player with the most wins at the end of the season wins the league
Nick is a Doctor
Nick is also the Commish of our Fantasy League
This is Nick
Nick thinks he is always right
And he started to tell me how I should draft my team
And we argued about it
And I realized I wanted a way to test my hypotheses
So I started to hack
The user assigns a weighted value to each position on their team
So if I think running back is the most important position I am going to weight it at 5
If I think Defense is not so important I will give it a 1
What you get
The ability to test your position strategy weights using real data and see your probability of winning the league
Firepower when you argue with Nick
When I told Nick about this system his response was:
"That's not how I would do it, what you really should do is....."