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Presentation Version of Systems Dynamics Analysis in Mongolia

A presentation of my work in Mongolia using a systems dynamics analysis methodology

Marcus Jenal

on 5 July 2015

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Transcript of Presentation Version of Systems Dynamics Analysis in Mongolia

Pastoralism and the problem of pastureland degradation in Mongolia Finding the right entry points into a complex market system Goals Background The problem The impact diagram Loop analysis Conclusions Improve livelihoods of herders in rural areas
Reduce pressure on ecological resources

Find effective entry points for policy measures and development initiatives Population: 3.1 million 225,000 herder families GDP growth: 6.1% (2010 estimate) Reinforcing feedback loops Dampening feedback loops Lessons and Challenges The system dynamics analysis allows to connect dynamics on many different levels
The loop analyses give a much clearer view on the dynamics of the system than simple causal chains
The system model is still a simplification
Challenge not to oversimplify the situation, but still keep the model manageable Qualitative analysis of the most important dynamics of a complex system leading to possible intervention scenarios
Be aware of macro-level dynamics of complex adaptive systems
An adaptive program management and flexibility in planning and implementation is needed to reflect the dynamics of a complex system SEEP annual conference 2011
Marcus Jenal, Consultant
marcus@jenal.org Thank you! Entry points To find the right entrypoints:
Define factor(s) you want to influence
Determine the relative importance of every impact factor
Make and rate scenarios of possible interventions and reactions of the system

Findings in the Mongolia case:
Adapt the regulatory environment to keep the herders in the rural areas.
Improve infrastructure and access to social services in rural centres.
Improve access to central markets for the herders through rural market hubs. Loss of pastureland
Migration towards the cities
Limited access to markets http://jenal.org
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