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Presentation Version of Systems Dynamics Analysis in Mongolia
Transcript of Presentation Version of Systems Dynamics Analysis in Mongolia
Reduce pressure on ecological resources
Find effective entry points for policy measures and development initiatives Population: 3.1 million 225,000 herder families GDP growth: 6.1% (2010 estimate) Reinforcing feedback loops Dampening feedback loops Lessons and Challenges The system dynamics analysis allows to connect dynamics on many different levels
The loop analyses give a much clearer view on the dynamics of the system than simple causal chains
The system model is still a simplification
Challenge not to oversimplify the situation, but still keep the model manageable Qualitative analysis of the most important dynamics of a complex system leading to possible intervention scenarios
Be aware of macro-level dynamics of complex adaptive systems
An adaptive program management and flexibility in planning and implementation is needed to reflect the dynamics of a complex system SEEP annual conference 2011
Marcus Jenal, Consultant
firstname.lastname@example.org Thank you! Entry points To find the right entrypoints:
Define factor(s) you want to influence
Determine the relative importance of every impact factor
Make and rate scenarios of possible interventions and reactions of the system
Findings in the Mongolia case:
Adapt the regulatory environment to keep the herders in the rural areas.
Improve infrastructure and access to social services in rural centres.
Improve access to central markets for the herders through rural market hubs. Loss of pastureland
Migration towards the cities
Limited access to markets http://jenal.org