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IR202 Russian Geopolitics - Oil
Transcript of IR202 Russian Geopolitics - Oil
The Geopolitics of Pipelines QA Pham-Le Russian natural gas markets Players Pipelines Pipeline Diplomacy Conclusion Thank you for your attention! The Russian perspective 1. Nord Stream 1st line inaugurated 8/11/11
To be completed and put in operation in 2012
longest sub-sea pipeline in the world, capacity on completion: 55bn m3/year Increased European energy dependence on Russia Gas markets = paramount importance for Russian geopolitics
Nabucco line in a weaker position, so far Russia has the upper hand in the pipeline game
Dependence on Russian resources is not desirable but quasi inevitable for Eu.
Turkey - critical in the Moscow v. Washington race
A vibrant growing Eurasian economic space adds to the propects of an emerging multipolar world Nabucco Stream vs. South Stream High cost: $24-6bn at final
31bn m3/year $ bn
31bn m3/year Oil & Gas = key non-military instrument in Russian FP in Eurasia
Economic: Gazprom supplies 25% Europe's gas import, 40% state revenue
Lever to balance security threats from NATO encirclement and NATOisation of former Warsaw Pact countries and US influence in Eurasia (Georgia, Ukraine) 80% gas exports to EU transported through Ukraine Baltic Sea chosen to avoid geopolitical disruptions "Anti-trust" raids vis a vis Gazprom
Third Energy Package: limit ownership of EU pipelines by gas suppliers, force Russia to sell parts of its pipelines
Iran could be an alternative supplier but unrealistic Major threat to US dominance Reduce dependence on Eu. markets
Build partnerships with Eurasian neighbours esp. China
Strengthen ties with Turkey "A power that dominated Eurasia would exercise decisive influence over ... Western Europe and East Asia, control the Middle East and Africa...the distribution of power on the Eurasian landmass will be of decisive importance to America's global primacy" - Brzezinski, Zbigniew, A Geostrategy for Eurasia Russia
SCO ~ 10% EU annual gas consumption #2 oil producer
#1 gas reserves On Black Sea floor, through Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia and on to west European markets From the Caspian and the Middle East across Turkey into western Europe Not yet secured gas anywhere to fill the pipeline, Azerbaijan &Turkmenistan already dealing with Gazprom, leave Iran best option but US? Partnership secured with Italian ENI, French EDF, etc, Turkey given approval Gazprom: #1 supplier to Europe, 25% market Russia EU/US EU
US Main importers: Germany, Italy, France, Czech Rep
Supply 100% gas for Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania