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Transcript of Power Transition
China vs. U.S Theory Power transition Balance of Power Parity Overtaking States at the top of the system’s hierarchy take advantage of their elite status and establish rules, institutions and privileges that primarily benefit themselves
Dissatisfaction could occur through sharing culture & interest
Anglo-American transition: Peaceful
Anglo-German transition: Not Peaceful Dissatisfaction Dissatisfaction Globalizing Yuan A state can be satisfied in one system but dissatisfied in another system
- Jack Levy Limitations of Dissatisfaction 1)Whether the extent of dissatisfaction is great
2)Whether one or more of those states that are most dissatisfied are in the great power stratum
3)Whether a sufficiently dissatisfied great power is overtaking the system’s dominant power Dissatisfaction Is China really dissatisfied with the US? If so in what area? Will this lead to war? If not war, what other way? Question Power Transition (1958)- Organski Origin of Theory Dominant Power Great Power Medium & Small Power Balance of Power (1570-80) Origin of Theory Dissatisfaction
-How they conceptualize the sources of power ?
-Not clarified well between actual measures of power versus perceptions of an opponent’s power status.
-Power transition model: population and economic size are critical
-Power of big population countries, China, India and Brazil, are measured higher than their actual power.
-It does not fully capture qualitative changes in the form of technological innovations that generate new leading economic sectors and trigger paradigmatic shifts in economic production.
It has been far more likely to be a clash between the leading global power and the leading regional power.
It is difficult for both actors to compare their relative power precisely.
“Unipolar moment” of the U.S. dominance will eventually end.
In terms of economic weight, China will surpass the United States as the largest state in the global system sometime around 2020.
HOWEVER, comparing China’s economic capacity with the Western system as a whole, it cannot surpass the whole Western system.
The combined economies of OECD vs. China
If China continues its impressive economic growth over the next few decades, the U.S. and China are likely to engage in an intense security competition with considerable potential for war.” Will China ever become democratic nation? Question Parity Timing of conflict History Sources of power Problem Political capacity (enables economic growth and resource mobility)
Economic productivity Applying the model to China Exceptions John Ikenberry (2008) The Rise of China and the Future of the West
China not only faces the U.S. but the entire Western order
The Western order is unique which encourages integration, accessibility, and liberal.
The Western order has the potential to turn the coming power shift into a peaceful change on terms favorable to the U.S., BUT Under one condition! -> U.S. sets about strengthening the existing order.
U.S’ reinvest in the Western order
Reinforcing the features of that order which encourage engagement, integration and restraint->updating the old bargains that underpinned key postwar security pacts.
U.S. needs to be the foremost supporter of the global system of governance that underpins the Western order. -United Kingdom vs. United States in early 20th century
-Japan vs. United States from 1940s until 1990s When the two states, dissatisfied power and dominant power, have attained rough equality in power.
“Zone of contention and probable war”
The probability of conflict between the dissatisfied great power and the dominant power will be greatest when the relative capabilities of these two states are characterized by parity.
When the bigger fish catches up to the smaller fish and establishes parity, conflict between the challenger and once-dominant power becomes more likely.
The transition process is not necessarily between two similarly constituted actors.
Does China really have the capability of overtaking US?? 4) Challenger model focuses on technological changes rather than generic economic growth
5) qualitative vs. quantitative consideration Power transition theory is based on the GDP
1) Once overtaker ’s GDP attains 80% of dominant power’s GDOP = Parity
2) Parity holds until the overtaker’s GDP exceeds 120% of the former system leader’s GDP
3) Heavily rely on industrialization and economic growth Limitation 1) Translated into a predominant economic position
in long-distance trade
2) Industrial production
3) Global reach capabilities Political capability
Efficacious political systems can facilitate economic growth and mobilize resources
Speed of overtaking
Faster the overtaking,
the lower is the probability
of war Capability Measurement Possibilities??
-International commercial markets as external source ‘dual use’
-Frieman vs. Godwin Applying to China POWER TIME Dangerous zone of
power transition Whether a sufficiently dissatisfied great power is overtaking the system’s dominant power?? U.S. vs China perspective Soft-Power Indicator What if we combine the CINC composite with additional indicators of “soft Power”?
by Kevin Sweeney Innovation
POWER #of foreign exchange students hosted Technological endowment Education R&D Institutions Human
Assets Tourist visits
Telephones in use Scientific patents applied
Radio & TV