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4.3 Sales Forecasting 2014 Syllabus
Transcript of 4.3 Sales Forecasting 2014 Syllabus
KEY LEARNING OUTCOMES:
Calculate three period and four-period moving average
Identify sales trends and determine forecasts using given sales data
Evaluate the benefits and limitations of sales forecasting
Key concept: Strategy
If marketing managers were able to predict the future sales accurately, the risks of business operations and business strategic decisions would be much reduced.
The operations department would know how many units to produce and what quantity of materials to order and how much stock level to hold.
The marketing department would be aware of how many products to distribute and whether changes to the marketing mix are needed.
Human resources workforce plan would be more accurate.
Finance could plan cash flows with much greater accurate amd make accurate profit forecasts.
Strategic decision-making such as developing new products or entering new markets would become much better informed.
In reality, such precision in forecasting is impossible to achieve, because of external factors that can influence sales performance.
Market forecasts form an essential part of the market planning process and of the screening process before new products are launched on to the market. These forecasts will be based on
market research data
, gained from both
. A common way of assessing future demand for a product yet to be fully launched is to use test marketing in one particular area.
For existing products sales forecasts are commonly based on past sales data.
Quantitative sales forecasting methods - time-series analysis
This method of sales forecasting is based entirely on
past sales data
. Sales records are kept over time and , when they are presented in chronological order, they are referred to as "time series'.
Extrapolation involves basing future predictions on past results. When actual results are plotted on a time-series graph, the line can be extended, or
, into the future along the trend of the past data. This simple method assumes that sales patterns are stable and will remain so in the future. It is ineffective when this is not true.
This method is more complex than simple graphical extrapolation. It allows the identification of underlying factors that are expected to influence future sales.These are the trend,
: regular and repeated variations that occur in sales data withing a period of 12 months or less.
Examples - clothing winter and summer, Flights (holidays), textbooks.
: variations in sales occurring over periods of time of much more than a year - they are related to the business cycle.
: may occur at any time and will cause unusual and unpredictable sales figures, eg exceptionally poor weather or negative public image following a high profile product failure.
The moving average is used to analyze these. This technique "smooths out" the fluctuations in time-series data and allows managers to identify the trend more easily.
TREND, SEASONAL AND RANDOM VARIATION EXAMPLES
Trend: underlying movement of the data in a time series.
Calculating Moving Averages - Simple Example three-year moving average
Yearly sales of a calculator manufacturer:
Steps calculate a three year moving average:
1. Calculate the mean sales for the first 3 years, then the second three sets and so on.
400 + 600 + 800
Years 1, 2, 3:
Years 2, 3, 4:
Years 3, 4, 5:
Years 4, 5, 6:
Years 5, 6, 7:
600 + 800 +650
800 + 650 + 700
650 + 700 + 850
850 + 950 + 1200
Remember in US$ 000
Sales revenue with the three-year moving average (trend): (in US$ 000)
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Sales 400 600 800 650 700 850 950 1200
Trend 600 683.333 716.667 733.333 833.333 1000
Years 6, 7, 8:
700 + 850 +950
1. Plot the actual
trend line (moving average)
on a time series graph.
- extend the trend line to predict future sales using a
line of best fit
PRACTICE: Do 3-period moving average practice questions A and B.
The benefits and limitations of sales forecasting
Improved working capital and cash flow
- by taking into consideration cyclical and seasonal variation factors, financial managers can better plan to improve the liquidity position of a business.
Increased efficiency and stock control
- sales forecasting greatly assists the production department in knowing the number of goods to produce and in planning for the amount of stock required in the future.
Better workforce planning
- accurate sales forecasting can help the human resources department in succession planning regarding the number of staff required in the future.
- will start the budgeting process.
Forecast costs and profits
Uncertain future demand and inaccuracy of predictions
- the business environment is constantly changing and this will impact sales.
Change in costs affecting price
- if the cost changes this most likley impact price which will affect sales forecast
Complex moving average calculations
- difficult and time-consuming to calculate
- the external environment causes change that may not be predictable
To what extent does knowing assist us in predicting?
How do we know that our predictions are reliable?
Prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future
" Neils Bohr, Nobel Laureate
This statement highlights some of the problems of using mathematics in forecasting.
Do you think there is any point in
managers forecasting future sales?
Calculating a four-year moving average
Calculating the four-year moving average is a bit more complex than calculating a three-year moving average. Four-year moving average is the most widely used technique as it is often used when forecasting from quarterly data. Much business data is released quarterly.
In this case, it makes use of
. This involves the use of a four-year and a eight year moving total to establish a mid-point. This is because if a four-quarter moving total was divided by four in order to calculate the average it would not lie alongside any one quarter. It would not make sense to have a result which did not belong to any time period. This is overcome by
the average so that it lies alongside one actual quarter. This is done by adding two four-quarter moving totals together. This is divided by eight to give the moving average.
Four-year moving average using the previous example:
Yearly sales of a calculator manufacturer:
Steps to calculate a four-year moving average:
1. Four-year moving total
Sum the sales of year 1, 2, 3 and 4. (400 + 600 + 800 + 650 = 2450)
Sum the sales of year 2, 3, 4 and 5. (600 + 800 + 650 + 700 = 2750)
.... (continue for years 3-6, 4-7 and 5-8)
2. Calculate eight-year moving total
Add 2 sets of 4 year moving totals = 2450 + 2750 = 5200
3. Calculate the four-year centered moving average.
Divide the eight-year moving total by 8. 5200/8 = 650. Place this in the line where year 3 (or Quarter 3 is positioned).Continue using same approach.
Complete the four-year moving average in table format.
Practice 4-year moving average:
Do C on 4.3 exercises.
Variation - the difference between actual sales and trend values (moving average)
Continuing with the example:
Sales (US$ 000)
Trend - 4-year moving average
Variation in each year
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
400 600 800 650 700 850 950 1200
650 718.75 768.75 856.25
150 -68.75 -68.75 -6.25
1. Calculate the
: Sales - Trend. (800-650 = 150) ...
Average cyclical variation:
This is calculated as the sum of the variations over the period divided by the number of years within the period.
sum of variations
number of years
150000 + (-68750) + (-68750) + (-6250)
BE CAREFUL WITH ADDING + AND - NUMBERS. THE SIGN MUST BE CORRECT
IF you were reading off the trend line for year 9 you would
it for the average seasonal or cyclical variation. If it was 1350000 then it would be 1350000 - 1562.50 = 1348437.5.
MORE Practice -
Four Period Moving Average Questions
Apple iPad sales + Chill-Out and Genius
Headline: October 16th, 2015
"US Retail Sales Rose Less than Forecast."
- is where a business uses data and other information to predict future sales.
It is impossible to predict the future with complete certainty but most business will attempt to forecast future sales - if only for a short time into the future.
A moving average is where the mean average in a set of data is continuously recalculated over time to establish a trend in the data.
Three Point Moving Average - Steps
Calculate the three- point moving total
- add up the sales revenue for the first three years and repeat.
Calculate the three- point moving average
- calculate the average for each three year period in the data.
Establish the trend:
Plot the sales data
Plot the 3 year moving average
Extrapolate the trend
Set up a table with the following headings:
Year Sales Revenue 3-year total 3-year moving average
Four-period moving average - STEPS
Set up a table with the following headings:
Year - Quarter - Sales Revenue - 4 Quarter moving total - Quarterly moving average - Seasonal Variation
Calculate the four quarter moving total for each quarter.
Calculate the eight quarter moving total for each possible quarter.
Calculate the four-quarter moving average - for each possible quarter
the 8 quarter moving total
Calculate the seasonal variation -
this is the way data changes in a repeatable and predictable way during the year.
Actual sales revenue - quarterly moving average = seasonal variation
Calculate the average seasonal variation for each quarter.
This is a way of smoothing out the actual seasonal variations in the data to give a seasonal variation that makes it easier to forecast sales. It is calculated by adding together seasonal variations in a quarter and dividing by the number of times there is data for this quarter.
Tip: Try skipping a line between numbers will help you to visualize the centering