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Customer Optimization (AMGT350) - vol. 2
RM
by
Ryan Malm
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Updated May 18, 2021
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Chapters
00:00
Chapter 1
00:03
Chapter 2
00:06
Chapter 3
00:07
Chapter 4
00:09
Chapter 5
06:09
Chapter 6
11:06
Chapter 7
Audio Transcript
Auto-generated
00:01 - 00:04
Okay. Welcome Back to Volume two groups.
00:05 - 00:07
I did not mean that, that one.
00:09 - 00:12
Okay. We were talking about customer equity and its effect
00:12 - 00:15
effect on loyalty or really, it's loyalties effect on customer
00:16 - 00:21
equity. So we're definitely as marketers and as managers, we're
00:21 - 00:23
definitely concerned with retention.
00:23 - 00:25
Right. How many of our customers are retaining?
00:26 - 00:27
That's what loyalty really is.
00:28 - 00:30
So there's really a couple of different ways that we
00:30 - 00:30
can look at.
00:31 - 00:33
This first is the progressive variable, which says, you know
00:33 - 00:36
what, losing customers is more like a volume dial rather
00:37 - 00:38
than on an off switch.
00:39 - 00:40
Right. It's not like we lose a bunch of customers
00:41 - 00:42
today and then none tomorrow.
00:42 - 00:44
I mean, that could happen, but that's not normal.
00:45 - 00:46
Right? We don't, we don't say, okay.
00:47 - 00:49
We lost no customers in january, lost a bunch in
00:49 - 00:52
february. That's not usually the way retention works.
00:52 - 00:53
Right. It's progressive.
00:54 - 00:56
It's a variable that changes pretty often.
00:56 - 01:00
Right? So, um, we're always losing some customers.
01:01 - 01:03
Uh, this could be various reasons, right?
01:03 - 01:06
We're not saying we know the reason necessarily but we're
01:06 - 01:09
always losing some customers just to measure, it's just a
01:09 - 01:11
matter of like does the dial turned down and we're
01:11 - 01:13
just losing very few customers right now?
01:13 - 01:15
Or is the dial turned up and we're losing more
01:15 - 01:16
customers than usual?
01:17 - 01:19
And then that's like wow something's wrong.
01:21 - 01:24
The fact that we're always losing some customers really is
01:26 - 01:29
you know kind of brings me back to the I.
01:29 - 01:29
D. C.
01:29 - 01:31
Model and says like hey even though we should be
01:31 - 01:37
focusing on developing the value of current customers, this is
01:37 - 01:41
why acquiring new customers is still an important factor.
01:41 - 01:44
You can't just rely on your current customer base.
01:44 - 01:48
You still have to be acquiring new customers because you're
01:48 - 01:50
always losing some customers, right?
01:51 - 01:53
But it's important to measure whether the dial is turned
01:53 - 01:56
up or is the measure is a damn right.
01:56 - 01:59
You got to compare this because you need if if
01:59 - 02:01
the dial is turned up and you're losing to cost
02:01 - 02:04
too many customers over a given period of time than
02:04 - 02:07
what you're used to or what you expect, something's wrong.
02:07 - 02:10
And you need to investigate it right now.
02:10 - 02:13
A multifaceted variable that we could need to look at
02:13 - 02:21
too, is that it's a possibility that customers are leaving
02:23 - 02:27
based on different relationships across business units, right?
02:27 - 02:33
They it's possible that um I guess it just means
02:33 - 02:36
that it's difficult to track why people stay or why
02:36 - 02:37
people go right.
02:38 - 02:40
Maybe they had a bad interaction with customer service.
02:40 - 02:41
We could probably track that.
02:42 - 02:43
But maybe not.
02:43 - 02:44
Maybe they never called customer service.
02:45 - 02:48
Maybe they had a bad experience with the product or
02:48 - 02:51
maybe they didn't like the way they were built.
02:52 - 02:54
And so they actually had they called in the accounting
02:54 - 02:56
department had a bad experience there.
02:56 - 03:01
It's really difficult to understand why people stay, why people
03:01 - 03:03
go um, Right?
03:04 - 03:06
We can survey them, but like most time people aren't
03:06 - 03:08
going to want to be serving on why you're staying
03:08 - 03:09
with the company.
03:09 - 03:12
And a lot of times people don't, we can't really
03:12 - 03:15
reach out to a customer who's left us unless they
03:15 - 03:18
leave us some really nasty feedback, which does happen quite
03:19 - 03:19
a bit.
03:19 - 03:20
So it's just defining retention.
03:21 - 03:23
You just need to understand that there's some difficulties here,
03:23 - 03:30
right? Um, It's also important to understand this idea of,
03:30 - 03:33
so customer attrition is kind of the rate at which
03:33 - 03:35
we're losing customers, right?
03:35 - 03:40
But and so attrition and defection are two different things.
03:40 - 03:41
So a customer.
03:41 - 03:45
So if we're talking about retention, how many customers we
03:45 - 03:48
keep attrition and defection are more of like, well, how
03:48 - 03:48
many are we losing?
03:49 - 03:50
So it's different way of measuring it, right?
03:51 - 03:53
So we should look at attrition is saying like, okay,
03:54 - 03:59
well, how many customers are we losing based on results
03:59 - 04:01
from circumstances that are kind of out of our control,
04:03 - 04:07
Right? Um Maybe it's uh, maybe they've retired.
04:08 - 04:09
Maybe they've moved out of the area.
04:10 - 04:11
Those are not things that we control as a company,
04:12 - 04:13
but we've lost some customers.
04:13 - 04:16
So again, if we're looking at the dial, if the
04:16 - 04:18
dials up, but then we investigated and find out, well,
04:19 - 04:19
it's just nutrition.
04:20 - 04:21
A lot of people just moved out of the area
04:21 - 04:22
because of their retirement age.
04:23 - 04:26
Um then we would know that like there's, which is
04:26 - 04:28
nothing wrong that we did in the strategy, right?
04:28 - 04:30
That's a good example of like around here.
04:30 - 04:33
I know there's like, I know like out of the,
04:33 - 04:36
the Hanford site with all the different contractors, they were
04:36 - 04:38
definitely worried in the last few years that the population
04:39 - 04:41
of workers is really high and they are all going
04:41 - 04:44
to a lot of them, a big population of them
04:44 - 04:46
will retire in the next couple of years, probably you
04:46 - 04:48
guys are going to school so you can build their
04:48 - 04:50
roles right now.
04:51 - 04:56
So, so if they retire and leave the area, businesses
04:56 - 04:58
are going to want to know like, oh, we've lost
04:59 - 04:59
customers. Well, why?
04:59 - 05:01
And if that's part of the, why, then you can
05:01 - 05:02
live with that, right?
05:03 - 05:07
But if it's defection, meaning the customer chooses to move
05:08 - 05:11
to a different business or to move to your competition
05:12 - 05:15
or to never buy from your period again, that is
05:15 - 05:16
more concerning.
05:16 - 05:19
So if you can figure out a way to measure
05:19 - 05:21
attrition versus defection, that can be very valuable.
05:23 - 05:25
Um, so when you're looking at retention and you say,
05:25 - 05:30
Okay, we're retaining, on average, we're retaining 70 of our
05:31 - 05:33
customers. It goes up and down based on the volume
05:34 - 05:36
dial gets moved up a couple percent down, a couple
05:37 - 05:37
percent each month.
05:38 - 05:39
And then you take a look at that at 30
05:40 - 05:40
that you've lost.
05:41 - 05:42
And you say, well, how much of it was due
05:42 - 05:44
to attrition, how much of it was due to defection.
05:44 - 05:46
And that would be very, very helpful.
05:47 - 05:49
Right? The key is to make sure that when you're
05:49 - 05:52
looking at this stuff, you don't have to measure everything.
05:52 - 05:55
You just need to measure what matters, right?
05:55 - 05:58
Maybe maybe measuring attrition is not really that important or
05:58 - 06:00
maybe just getting an attrition number is good, but we
06:00 - 06:02
don't need to dig in too much to figure out
06:02 - 06:05
why they, why they moved out of the area, Right?
06:06 - 06:07
But measure what matters.
06:08 - 06:09
I think I've got a graphic here.
06:09 - 06:11
I think this is a cool yes, sir.
06:11 - 06:18
So, um, this is a really good example of why
06:18 - 06:20
measuring what matters is so important.
06:21 - 06:25
Okay. We're basically talking about there's efficiencies and like what
06:25 - 06:29
helps the overall bottom line of the company the most.
06:29 - 06:32
And this is like a win for marketing.
06:32 - 06:37
Right? So we've got four companies here, amazon, Ameritrade, E
06:37 - 06:38
Bay and E Trade.
06:38 - 06:41
Okay. And what we're saying here is that the customer
06:42 - 06:44
equity is in this first column, right under my chin,
06:45 - 06:47
right? 2.5 billion.
06:47 - 06:48
1.4 billion.
06:49 - 06:49
2.1 billion.
06:50 - 06:51
1.8 billion.
06:51 - 06:55
Um, and then what it says after that is says,
06:55 - 07:02
okay, If we get a 10 improvement in one of
07:02 - 07:04
these areas, that's how much it will change.
07:05 - 07:08
Um, our customer equity and right.
07:08 - 07:10
And we said customer equity is basically what the company
07:11 - 07:11
is worth.
07:12 - 07:16
So if the cost of a new customer, let's look
07:16 - 07:17
at this column right here.
07:18 - 07:22
If the cost of a new customer is reduced by
07:22 - 07:24
10%,, right?
07:24 - 07:24
That sounds awesome.
07:25 - 07:25
It's like, whoa!
07:26 - 07:28
We got new cut, we're bringing in new customers and
07:28 - 07:31
it's costing us 10% less to bring them in than
07:31 - 07:32
it used to.
07:32 - 07:33
It sounds great, Right?
07:33 - 07:38
But what we find out is that customer equity only
07:38 - 07:41
increases by about half a percent to 1.5%.
07:42 - 07:44
It's pretty small, Right?
07:44 - 07:46
So it's like, Okay, that sounds like a good number
07:46 - 07:48
that we reduce customer acquisition by 10%.
07:49 - 07:52
But it doesn't really help the economic value of the
07:52 - 07:54
firm as much as we would think it would.
07:55 - 07:56
The other one is margin, right?
07:56 - 07:57
And margin.
07:57 - 08:01
We're all super like aware of it and understand that
08:01 - 08:02
it's important, right?
08:02 - 08:06
So if product margins right, our profit are difference between
08:07 - 08:08
the price and the cost.
08:09 - 08:12
If if we could increase that margin by 10%, which
08:12 - 08:12
is huge.
08:13 - 08:15
I mean keep in mind that like costco's margin is
08:15 - 08:16
11 on things.
08:17 - 08:22
If we could raise the product margins by 10%,, the
08:22 - 08:25
customer equity level basically goes up by that same amount.
08:26 - 08:29
Okay. It says, hey, if we have, um, you know,
08:29 - 08:34
$2.5 billion in, in customer equity at amazon and we
08:34 - 08:37
increase our margin by 10% which would be a lot
08:38 - 08:41
right, amazon not to start charging you 10% more or
08:41 - 08:45
reducing their cost 10% more, Then they could actually increase
08:45 - 08:48
that 2.5 billion by about 10 by about that same
08:48 - 08:49
amount of margin.
08:49 - 08:51
So that's a lot better than so.
08:51 - 08:53
So right there will tell you, wow.
08:53 - 08:55
If you only have those two choices, where should you
08:55 - 08:58
spend your money figuring out a way to increase your
08:58 - 09:01
margins or figuring out a way to make it cheaper
09:01 - 09:04
to find new customers would be an obvious answer to
09:04 - 09:07
go for the margin easier said than done.
09:07 - 09:09
Right? People are gonna be super stoked when you start
09:09 - 09:10
raising their prices.
09:11 - 09:14
Now, the last column there says, what about if we
09:14 - 09:17
get a 10 improvement in retention?
09:18 - 09:22
What if we do 10 better in keeping our already
09:22 - 09:23
current customers?
09:24 - 09:27
Okay. So if we can increase customer loyalty by 10%.
09:28 - 09:30
It multiplies Customer equity.
09:31 - 09:31
Big time.
09:31 - 09:34
And now we're talking about like if we can increase
09:35 - 09:38
retention by 10%, we're looking at about 30 of a
09:39 - 09:42
boost to our customer equity base.
09:43 - 09:44
Right? That's huge.
09:45 - 09:46
Um Right.
09:49 - 09:53
So, Uh well let me just reset miss restate that
09:53 - 09:53
one more time.
09:54 - 09:56
A 10 boost in customer loyalty.
09:57 - 10:02
10 boost in customer loyalty For these four companies showed
10:03 - 10:06
that it would increase the company's overall value by about
10:06 - 10:08
30%. That's pretty mind blowing.
10:08 - 10:09
In my opinion.
10:09 - 10:12
These are billion built, multibillion dollar companies.
10:12 - 10:15
If you could increase The value of those companies by
10:15 - 10:18
30%, if their stock went up by 30%.
10:19 - 10:22
Oh my gosh, you're talking about billions and billions of
10:22 - 10:23
dollars. Right?
10:24 - 10:28
So, you know, because traditionally, um, everybody talks about the
10:28 - 10:32
importance of acquisition, acquiring new customers, right?
10:33 - 10:34
We talk about mergers and acquisitions.
10:35 - 10:38
All of these companies here have bought out other companies.
10:38 - 10:41
They've acquired other companies and they do that so they
10:41 - 10:42
can acquire other customers.
10:44 - 10:46
But look at how little of a difference that makes.
10:47 - 10:50
So what it says is, it says, measure what matters
10:51 - 10:55
and probably understand here that save your money on acquisitions
10:56 - 10:58
and instead take that money you are going to use
10:59 - 11:01
to buy out another company and instead sink that money
11:01 - 11:04
into retention and creating loyal customers and you could really
11:05 - 11:06
build the value of the company.
11:07 - 11:08
So I just think that's a fascinating graphic.
11:09 - 11:14
Um, so what are some of the main factors then
11:15 - 11:16
in customer equity?
11:17 - 11:24
Because forecasting customers future behaviors and estimating the financial impact
11:25 - 11:27
that they're going to have is never going to be
11:27 - 11:29
simple. Right?
11:29 - 11:33
But at least there's some straightforward factors, these factors that
11:33 - 11:38
at least contribute to increases or decreases in that customer
11:38 - 11:39
equity number.
11:40 - 11:43
Right? So like right off the bat, we know that
11:43 - 11:46
hey, if we can acquire more customers or customer equity
11:46 - 11:46
should go up.
11:48 - 11:52
Now. I've, I've a talent put italicized.
11:53 - 11:54
I put italics on like kind of the ones I
11:54 - 11:55
would. This is a longer list.
11:56 - 11:58
But I think if I was you, I would focus
11:58 - 12:00
more on the one like they're all important.
12:00 - 12:02
But the ones that are in italics or even the
12:02 - 12:03
ones that I feel like are the most important.
12:05 - 12:08
So not just acquiring more customers but acquiring customers who
12:08 - 12:09
are more valuable.
12:10 - 12:13
Right? So that's marketing's job is to say, oh, I
12:13 - 12:15
got some hot leads for you and I would focus
12:15 - 12:17
your time on these ones because I think they've got
12:18 - 12:22
long term customer lifetime, long term, strong lifetime value.
12:25 - 12:27
If you increase your profit per customer, right?
12:27 - 12:29
The margins that will help your customer equity.
12:29 - 12:32
Just as we saw, if you can reduce the service
12:33 - 12:36
cost per customer, that will help, right?
12:36 - 12:38
Because that will actually help your margin if you can
12:38 - 12:38
reduce the cost.
12:39 - 12:41
We talked about that a little bit where we're talking
12:41 - 12:43
about interacting with the customer and how we can actually
12:43 - 12:45
find people who don't even work for us to help
12:46 - 12:46
the customer sometimes.
12:48 - 12:51
Um Or we could sell the customer additional products or
12:51 - 12:52
services. We talked about that.
12:52 - 12:53
We talked about the I.
12:54 - 12:54
D. I.
12:54 - 12:55
C. Model and customization.
12:57 - 13:00
The last two are super important, reduce the rate of
13:00 - 13:02
customer attrition, keep people from leaving.
13:04 - 13:06
That's going to make the huge bump, right?
13:07 - 13:08
If you can increase that by 10%.
13:08 - 13:09
We saw those other companies.
13:10 - 13:12
Their value is going to go up by 30 and
13:13 - 13:15
last but definitely not least because I put this one
13:15 - 13:19
in italics as well improve the willingness of the customer
13:19 - 13:20
to recommend us.
13:21 - 13:24
The term that I use here.
13:25 - 13:26
Net promoter score.
13:26 - 13:28
This is not something that I made up.
13:28 - 13:31
This is a term that's out there for marketing for
13:32 - 13:32
for for companies.
13:33 - 13:36
It was developed by a company called SAT metric systems.
13:37 - 13:41
Um, and well, it was a common, it was, it
13:41 - 13:45
was a conglomerate between set metrics and a company called
13:45 - 13:46
bain and company.
13:46 - 13:49
And then this, this guy named fred Reichelt.
13:50 - 13:52
And what they did is they said, let's figure out
13:53 - 13:56
a measure that we can use to say, well, what
13:56 - 14:03
is the difference between customer satisfaction and dissatisfaction based on
14:04 - 14:07
the customer's willingness to recommend our products or to recommend
14:08 - 14:09
our company or to recommend our brand?
14:10 - 14:13
Right? So it takes a look at customer satisfaction or
14:14 - 14:17
customer dissatisfaction and said, but, but it's, but it's all
14:17 - 14:22
based on it's trying to get a is trying to
14:22 - 14:26
take the temperature of the customer and saying how willing
14:26 - 14:29
are if these questions that you've seen in surveys, how
14:29 - 14:31
willing are you to recommend our product?
14:32 - 14:35
How willing are you to recommend our brand to one
14:35 - 14:37
of your friends or your acquaintances?
14:38 - 14:41
That's a net promoter score And it's super, super important.
14:41 - 14:43
And if you can basically say, is that if our
14:43 - 14:45
net promoter score goes up, if people are more willing
14:46 - 14:48
to recommend us, our customer equity goes way up because
14:49 - 14:51
the long term value of those customers who are recommending
14:52 - 14:53
us just went way up.
14:54 - 14:54
Okay, Okay.
14:55 - 14:56
I'm running up against the clock again.
14:56 - 14:57
I'll come right back with volume.
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