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Oral Presentation
YK
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Yue Wen Koh
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Updated Nov 11, 2020
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00:02 - 00:03
thank you, Sir Kong.
00:04 - 00:06
There's some assumptions that presented in this article.
00:07 - 00:08
One assumption meat is due to the fact that the
00:08 - 00:11
prediction models that created using the transform the past doesn't
00:11 - 00:14
mean any implementation off new protocols will affect the prediction.
00:15 - 00:17
Quoting from the article, one of the iconic climate models
00:18 - 00:20
and one of the first brought the issue of climate
00:20 - 00:23
change too broad Public attention was published by James Hansen
00:23 - 00:24
off NASA in 1988.
00:25 - 00:29
However, his predictions for temperatures after 1988 were 50% higher,
00:29 - 00:31
actually global mean temperatures in those years.
00:32 - 00:34
This is in part because Hansen did not anticipate the
00:34 - 00:37
Montreal Protocol, a treaty that went to effect in 1989
00:38 - 00:40
on which banker for all cupboards, which are both in
00:40 - 00:40
greenhouse gasses.
00:41 - 00:43
As you can see, the author has mentioned, such prediction,
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models are not always correct.
00:46 - 00:46
In this case.
00:47 - 00:50
The prediction model published by Hanson overestimated the global mean
00:50 - 00:52
temperature due to the implementation off the Montreal Protocol.
00:54 - 00:57
The Montreal Protocol is an international agreement in 1987 when
00:57 - 01:00
it was designed to stop production and import ozone depleting
01:00 - 01:03
substances and reduce their concentration in the atmosphere to help
01:03 - 01:04
protect the Earth ozone layer.
01:05 - 01:07
Due to this, the actual value of greenhouse gasses was
01:08 - 01:10
actually less than what was estimated, resulting in a lower
01:11 - 01:12
mean temperature in the past few years.
01:13 - 01:16
Treaties such a security protocol in 2005 Paris agreement in
01:16 - 01:19
2016 have been implemented to cut human emission off the
01:19 - 01:19
greenhouse gasses.
01:20 - 01:23
Another assumption made is that there must know there must
01:23 - 01:25
be no drastic change in human mission.
01:25 - 01:28
Like I mentioned prediction models that created using trends from
01:28 - 01:28
the past.
01:29 - 01:31
A drastic change in human mission will result in the
01:31 - 01:32
prediction model being inaccurate.
01:33 - 01:37
Once again, that concludes the uncertainties assumptions.
01:38 - 01:39
Are we passing your time over to usually, who will
01:40 - 01:42
be liberating more on the implications and importance off this
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