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Using Scenarios to Inform Future Decisions

adriano galvao

on 9 July 2010

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Transcript of WFS-2010

Automotive Industry and Government Colaborate in Brazil The auto industry in numbers:
50 years - 50 million vehicles
5% of GDP
1.3 million people involved
600 small and mid-sized companies
75% of vehicles sold are hybrid
Main goals of PDP:
Reduce financing and tax burdens
Increase foreign sales of value-added products. Scenario Approach for Decision Making Using Scenarios to Inform Future Decisions Defining Key Driving Forces Defining Key Trends Building Scenarios Scenarios Created for the Automotive Sector Scenario 1: Brazil, a Major Importer (the worse-case) Scenario 2: Dynamic as Always (neutral case) Scenario 3: Playing between Leaders (the best-case) Tools & Publications used to craft an unique Foresight Approach High urban concentration
Horrendous traffic congestions
Longer trips and rising transportation costs in major cities
Quality of roads remains low and environment conditions affect health and living conditions of urban populations
Investments are funneled to fewer manufactures - no incentives for local manufactures to pursue technological developments High urban concentration
Moderate traffic congestion
New business models (eg. carsharing) in major cities
Quality of roads improve and rate of accidents reduce with investments in infraestructure
Brazil maintains tecnological leadership in core areas (eg. biofuels) and suppliers reorganize themselves to accommodate market changes Urban concentration remains high
Major investments in new traffic systems and business models keep traffic congestion moderate, reducing accidents in major cities
Improved public policies for economic growth and poverty reduction stregthen Brazil’s technological leadership in core areas and fuels auto parts companies to compete with leading countries LESSONS LEARNED WITH SCENARIOS

Background Research was harder to manage and complete than originally thought

Time is relative and one's whole frame of reference affected the foresight exercise

Complete leadership involvement for developing scenarios was not easy. Formalities around age and hierarchical layers required extra time to involve higher level stakeholders

Most participants were not able to easily think strategically and long term THANK YOU!

Adriano Braun Galvao
Claudio Chauke Nehme
Marcio de Miranda Santos
Liliane Rank

Full transcript