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Jody Dean

on 15 June 2014

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Transcript of Peru

Climate Change and San Martin
Drought and Deforestation in the Peruvian


Linking Precipitation and Fire Anomalies
Drivers of Deforestation
Climate Change Projections
Why Adapt?
Why Mitigate?
Project Overview
-Warmer and Dryer
-Increasing Number of Extreme Events
-Projected Increase in Temperature of 0.9 to 1.2 degrees Celsius for San Martin
-Projected Decrease in Precipitation of -1 to -3 percent for San Martin
-Agriculture, predominantly small scale (slash and burn and shifting cultivation)
-Infrastructure, Illegal logging and mining
-Expansion of large-scale agriculture such as palm oil.
By: A. Cowman, J. Dean, J. Goetzel, M. Eyassu-Melkie & P. Zevallos
San Martin
-San Martin is Progressive on REDD+
-Fires are correlated with climate and are predictable
Low Cost: McKinsey ‘30% of the abatement potential with average cost of Euro9tCo2e’

IPCC ‘Deforestation could be eliminated for USD 27.2tCO2e
-Forests are Vulnerable Ecosystems
-Climate Change May Aggravate Deforestation Trends
-Forest Fires Intensified by Climate Change
"Synergy" Activities for Forests
Climate Mitigation Activities, Mitigation Potential & Benefits and Impacts
The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC (Art. 2), is the “stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.

Initially, this was also the principal objective of REDD+. After 2005, other objectives were added:
-protecting biodiversity
-reducing poverty/ enhancing local livelihoods
-strengthening indigenous rights
-better governance
-higher capacity for climate adaptation
Observed Minimum and Maximum Trends for Temperature and Precipitation
Positive Feedbacks Among Forest Fragmentation, Logging, Fires & Climate Change
- USAID: forests for mitigation
- Importance of Forests for Peru
- San Martin
*Deforestation is ocurring at a rate of 0.35-0.5% per year
Deforestation in San Martin
-Highest rate of deforestation i.e. 32.55% that is almost 1,629,434ha
-Shifting cultivation, illegal logging, infrastructure development, and small-scale agriculture
-Support from Government (Policies + Incentives)
-Biodiversity and carbon stored is lower than forests.
Return of the Feedback Loop: This scenario is potentially predictable and can be mitigated.
What does this mean for REDD+?
Policy recommendations:
Feedback and Questions
Thank You!
Driven By:
Moving Forward
Altomayo Conservation Initiative
-182,000 Ha.
-5,152,682 tCO2 in 10 years
-Sustainable coffee production and governance
-3.5 M USD worth of carbon credits sold to Disney
Expansion of Oil Palm
North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) SST as a Source of Predictability
Source: Alto Mayo Conservation Initiative [Iniciativa de Conservación Alto Mayo]
Source: Modified from Laurence and Williamson, 2001
Source: Modified from Laurence and Williamson, 2001
Climate change vulnerability assessment of the Altomayo Conservation Initiative:
-Project does not take into account climate variability or change

-Forest fires: potential loss of 1M USD in a year

-Climate change scenarios for the Mayo River Basin project impacts to coffee crops
Put in place and early warning system for drought and forest fires.
-Stop the introduction of policies that undermine deforestation reduction objectives (such as the promotion of palm oil agriculture)
Promote innovative approach to REDD+ (mitigation + adaptation) to:
-Enhance participation in International Negotiations
-Attract investment (international, public and private)
-Help achieve national and sub national goals
Information and monitoring systems need to be constantly improved:
-Climate data (temperature, precipitation)
-Emission factors
Full transcript