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Energy Policy & Modelling Group, UCC
Transcript of Energy Policy & Modelling Group, UCC
Alessandro Chiodi (Energy Scenarios to 2050)
James Glynn (Energy Security)
Maurizio Gargiulo (Energy System within the Economy)
Fionn Rogan (Modelling Future Gas Demand)
Paul Deane (Systems Modelling)
Denis Dineen (Residential Sector Demand)
Hannah Daly (Private Car Transport)
Emer Dennehy (Energy Efficiency Evaluation)
Declan Doyle (Energy in Industry)
Patrick Calnan (EVs and Power Systems)
…our TEAM here in UCC
Physical resource required to achieve an 80% reduction in emissions for 2050 showing BioCrops, Wind farms and Thermal plant.......!Locations are for visualization purposes only!
We use Google maps to visualize the physical resource needed for BioEnergy, Agriculture and Wind farms
Helps us to model different aspects of the end energy use in high detail.
(Oh… and it has nothing to do with the newspaper....)
The Main model we use is called “Irish TIMES”
The “How” bit…..
Lets talk targets
….As one of the highest emitters of greenhouse gasses per capita in Europe we also have our part to play in climate change….
Ireland is one of the most Energy dependent Countries in Europe. We import over 85% of our energy….
We’re taking a closer look at Ireland’s Energy Future
Energy Policy and Modelling Group
Car Stock Models help us to model the transport sector in greater detail…including Freight and Aviation
Helps us to model the electricity sector in very high detail.
We must achieve a 20% reduction in our
Greenhouse Gas emissions Relative to 2005
Ireland also has emission reduction targets such as our Non Emissions Trading Sector [Non-ETS] target
Lets look at Some Quick Results for the year 2050
12% of Heat
10% of Transport
40% of Electricity
...Ireland's target is 16% of gross final consumption to come from renewables by 2020 comprising of
Where Emissions are produced in Ireland today
How Energy is Consumed in Ireland today
We model all aspects of the energy system together to get integrated solutions to Ireland's Energy Questions
This Sankey diagram shows the full energy flow in Ireland for 2010. Our system is dominated by oil and gas.
TIMES is a Fully Integrated Energy Model
Inputs to the TIMES Model
We also Softlink to other models to improve results for certain sectors
Another Sankey diagram showing energy flow for 2050 for an 80% reduction in emissions.
This is us....
also for the year 2020
The model uses linear equations and optimisation techniques to solve for a lowest cost solution subject to user defined constraints
% Energy Imports
Remme U. 2007 Overview of TIMES: Parameters, Primal Variables & Equations. Proc. ETSAP Workshop November 2007
More Detailed Sankey diagram shows the full energy flow in Ireland for 2010.
Mitigation Pathways to 2050
80% reduction applied to Energy System Only
Assumed Agriculture stays the same as 2020
CO2 emissions reduction by 2050 relative to 1990 levels.