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Transcript of Home Sales
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Where Are We
In The Business Cycle?
How do we measure the market?
What does the past say about the market?
How reliable is the market?
How to prepare for upcoming changes?
By Maxen, Erik, and Bri
What Does the Current Market Look Like?
What's our future market look like?
Mostly depends on "Echo Boomers" otherwise known as "Millennial's"
31% of the Market is made up of buyers between the ages of 17-31 currently, but will increase
A predicted 900,000 Millennial's will own a home versus the 500,000 baby boomer generation
Housing bubble burst in 2008, but has been making a recovery since 2013 when the recession finally started to near an end
Generally, the home sales decrease
drastically before or during a
But as the economy hits it's peak in the business
cycle, interest rates are at their highest and
home purchases decrease.
There have been a few exceptions to this rule, such as in 2001 when the economy for new homes grew and continued to grow even during the recession
Currently, the United States' position in the business cycle is in mid-cycle expansion. This means that:
Growth is peaking
Credit growth is strong
Profit growth peaks
Inventories and sales grow; movement towards equilibrium
With only one exception, the housing market will always go down when the market's about to go into recession.
The only case of home sales increasing during a recession, as of 2012, is during the year 1982. Also, 2001 was the only period since WWII that the housing market has contracted during economic prosperity. Even then, that drop was short lived.
Many economists view it as very reliable, since it has such a good track record of determining when recessions will occur. It also is one of the first markets to drop when te economy is about to go into recession and one of the first to rise when the mar
Economic Growth Scorecard
In the month of February this year, there were ~440,000 New Houses sold.
This is 3.3% below the January estimate of how many houses would be sold, and 1.1% below the one in February.
The average house sold for $317,500.
Tobey, John S. "Forget Affordability -- Housing's Trends Signal A Bright Future." Forbes. Forbes Magazine, 27 Oct. 2013. Web. 09 Apr. 2014. http://www.forbes.com/sites/johntobey/2013/10/27/forget-affordability-housings-trends-signal-a-bright-future/ (<-- fuure market, dependable)
Singer, Stephanie. "Future of U.S. Housing Markets Depends Largely on Echo Boomers | Realtor.org." Realtor.org. National Association of REALTORS®., 18 May 2012. Web. 09 Apr. 2014 .http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2012/05/future-of-us-housing-markets-depends-largely-on-echo-boomers (<-- future market statisistics; dependable source)
Shiller, Robert J. "Today’s Dream House May Not Be Tomorrow’s." The New York Times. The New York Times, 27 Apr. 2013. Web. 10 Apr. 2014. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/28/business/housing-markets-future-has-many-variables.html?_r=0
"Homeowners More Optimistic About the Future Than Any Time in Past Year." Zillow: Real Estate, Apartments, Mortgage & Home Values in the US. N.p., n.d. Web. 10 Apr. 2014. http://www.zillow.com/blog/homeowners-more-optimistic-about-the-future-than-any-time-in-past-year-11285/
"How Metro Regions Can Prepare for Housing Markets of the Future." Building Resilient Regions How Metro Regions Can Prepare for Housing Markets of the Future Comments. Regional Resilience, n.d. Web. 10 Apr. 2014. http://brr.berkeley.edu/2011/08/how-metro-regions-can-prepare-for-housing-markets-of-the-future/
Mayer, David A. "Economics." Counted or Not? N.p., n.d. Web. 14 Apr. 2014.
Sparague, Mark. "Economic Indicators to Watch." Independence Title. Independence Title Company, n.d. Web. 14 Apr. 2014.
Hofschire, Dirk, and Lisa Emsbo-Mattingly. "Business Cycle Update: Solid Economic Trends into 2014, but Market Volatility Ahead." Business Cycle Update: Solid Economic Trends into 2014, but Market Volatility Ahead. Pyramis Global Advisors, n.d. Web. 10 Apr. 2014.
Hofschire, Dirk. "Weak Emerging Markets: Business Cycle Update." February Business Cycle Update 2014. Fidelity Viewpoints, 08 Feb. 2014. Web. 10 Apr. 2014.
"US New Single Family Houses Sold:." US New Single Family Houses Sold. YCharts, 28 Feb. 2014. Web. 09 Apr. 2014.
Mayo, Raemeka, and Stephen Cooper. "New Residential Sales." New Residential Sales. US Census Bureau, 25 Mar. 2014. Web. 13 Apr. 2014. <http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/>.
Surprisingly, most sales of homes aren't even
Many homes are sold each year by citizens,
but while those sales might have similar
patterns during a recession, they don't
contribute towards GDP.
Only new privately owned homes count towards GDP
This excludes sales of apartment homes
Now that more people are getting post high school educations, earning their degrees and making a higher salary; started saving early for a down payment
Make sure you are stable in your career
Establish good credit
Get to know the neighborhood, neighbors, etc. before making an offer
Find a trustworthy lender, bank or mortgage broker for any possible loans on the new home