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Presentation EU Policies; the EU and Ukraine

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Thom van Willigen

on 14 March 2014

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Transcript of Presentation EU Policies; the EU and Ukraine

Criticism Rebuttal

-Slow -Not much slower than US
-Too limited (arms?) -Lacking economic sanctions, but smarter
-Only sanctions? -Apprehensive or strategic?
-Exposure and credibility
EU officials

Appraisal of EU External Action (3)
"To understand what's really happening in Ukraine, follow the gas lines"
The European Union - Ukraine
-Historical background turmoil
-Escalating protests
- Characterization Crimean crisis
-The EU's competencies in external action
-Appraisal and prospects of EU action

Why is Ukraine in turmoil?
Appraisal of EU External Action
Different narratives, though;

clear breach of International Law

Key factors:

Historical : Background info
Economic: Gas
Political: Independence, Europe or Russia?
Cultural-linguistic: East and West
Ukraine - background info
Soviet Union
Opposition leaders Viktor Yushchenko and
Yulia Tymoshenko led the 2004 mass protests
Independence, Russia or Europe?
Independence after SU - 1991
The "Orange Revolution" - 2004
Europe or Russia: re-elections in 2010
Viktor Yanukovych
Prospects of EU external action
'Foreign minister' and 'president' of EU of little consequence in current structure

East and West
Prospects of EU external action (2)
Speed unlikely to improve

Hard power unlikely

Economic factors prevail?

Capabilities-expectations gap

Cultural-linguistic division
Political-linguistic relation
Role of the EU agreement
Appraisal of EU External Action (2)
Soft power instruments;

Assistance package

Targeted sanctions

Recent Events in Crimea
Crimean ministers held a vote to join the Russian Federation

Preparation for a Referendum

The presence of 30.000 Russian soldiers on the peninsula has been criticized

Facts you need to know about Crimea
The Russian Empire annexed the territory of Crimea in the 18th century.

In 1954, Nikita Khrushchev, transferred the Crimea peninsula to the Ukrainian SSR.

Who lives there now?
Why are Ukraine and Crimea so important for Russia
Kievan Rus’

Yalta conference

naval base
Geographic limitations and ambitions
Western reaction on Russian`s actions and its critique
BBC: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26483818
Centre for Research on Globalization: http://www.globalresearch.ca/
Heise Online: http://www.heise.de/tp/artikel/41/41197/3.html
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia: http://www.mid.ru/bdomp/brp_4.nsf/e78a48070f128a7b43256999005bcbb3/86ddb7af9cd146c844257c8a003c57d2!OpenDocument
Pravda: http://english.pravda.ru/news/russia/20-02-2014/126889-russia_ukraine-0/
Russia Today: http://rt.com/news/crimea-facts-protests-politics-945/
Sam Houstan State University: http://www.shsu.edu/~his_ncp/Kievan.html
Süddeutsche Zeitung: http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/ukraine-im-umbruch-warum-die-krim-fuer-putin-so-wichtig-ist-1.1900897-2
The Guardian: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10682341/Ukraine-Russia-crisis-live.html
The American Conservative: http://www.theamericanconservative.com/resist-the-war-party-on-crimea/comment-page-1/
The Guardian: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/05/clash-crimea-western-expansion-ukraine-fascists
The Guardian: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/07/ukraine-russia-crimea-naval-base-tatars-explainer
Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/12/09/this-one-map-helps-explain-ukraines-protests/

Guess, who said it!
"no one in the civilized world" will recognize its referendum, because the vote is "unconstitutional" and "illegitimate".

A) Vladimir Putin

B) Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Foreign Minister of Germany

C) Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Interim Prime Minister of Ukraine

D) Oleksandr Turchynov, Interim President of Ukraine
"What was quite disturbing, well, all the evidence shows that people who were killed by snipers from both sides, among policemen and people from the streets, that they were the same snipers killing people from both sides. So there is a stronger and stronger understanding that behind snipers it was not Yanukovych, it was somebody from the new coalition".

A) Cathrine Ashton, EU High Representative

B) John Kerry, US Secretary of State

C) Urmas Paet, Foreign Minister of Estonia

D) Radosław Sikorski, Foreign Minister of Poland
The Common Foreign and Security Policy after the Lisbon Treaty
One EU voice?
What can the EU do?
Joint action & common position
Restrictive measures
- Arms embargo
- Economic or financial sanctions
- Admissive sanctions
EU interests in Ukraine
The EU position
"The European Union will not force Ukraine, or any other partner, to choose between the European Union or any other regional entity."
"We therefore strongly disapprove of the Russian position and actions in this respect. Stronger relations with the European Union do not come at the expense of relations between our Eastern partners and their other neighbours, such as Russia."
Joint statement by Barroso & Van Rompuy, 25 November 2013
"I call on all sides to decrease the tensions immediately through dialogue, in full respect of Ukrainian and international law."
Catherine Ashton, 4 March 2014
What did the EU do?
Smart sanctions
Prepared economic & admissive restrictions
Financial aid
Proposal for temporarily removing customs duties on Ukrainian exports to the EU
Last one, without multiple choices!
In an interview about Crimean situation:

“The use of direct military force might be necessary to protect our compatriots abroad”

EU policies
Claudia van der Pol
Marina Mantay
Thom van Willigen
Emma Smit
Margot Koenders
13 March 2014
Prof. PhDr. Iveta Radičová. PhD.
Protests in Kiev
timeline of events

November 21
End of November
Early December
December 17
16-23 January
28-29 January
November 21
Government announces EU Association Agreement is being abandoned
End of November
Early December
December 17
16-23 January
anti-protest law
first two people die from gunshots
28-29 January

February 22
Yanukovych disappears
control presidential administration
early elections
Yanukovych on TV
Tymoshenko released
23-26 February
Full transcript