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Transcript of Scenario Planning
- Assuming that there's more than one right answer
- Avoiding surprises by breaking through uncertainties The Components of Scenario Planning Stage 1: Orientation Stage 2: Exploration - Identifying, analyzing and ranking driving forces for the future of the issue
- Come up with a list of uncertainties and driving forces Stage 3: Scenarios and Narratives Creation - Select a scenario framework: 2x2 matrix of the top two critical uncertainties
- Creative and plausible narratives for each of the 4 scenarios Stage 4: Options Consideration - Determine implications of each outcome on the focal issue
- Prioritization of options based on economic viability and practicality Stage 5: Integration into current management processes - Identify warning signals warranting the use of the scenarios developed
- Evaluate strategic implementation aspects Crisis: Averted
Thanks for participating! Questions/Concerns? - Recognize that there are multiple possibilities
- Uncertainties can happen simultaneously
- Number-driven structure is not imperative Key Takeaways Useful applications - Areas with high risk and costs
- Strategic planning
- Investment decision-making
- Competitive ventures Identify a Key Focal Issue - An issue with serious long range consequences
- Define scope and time frames for making decisions
- Issues are generally in the form of questions Identify Driving Forces - Themes or ideas that will affect the key focal point
- Areas such as social dynamics, economics, political affairs, technology, etc.
- Include both potential inevitable and potential uncertain forces
- Key to success: market research Identify Critical Uncertainties - Identify uncertainties that are more critical than others
- Generally the top two uncertainties out of the driving forces Create a Scenario Framework - Develop a matrix with each possibility to be explored located in each quadrant
- Maximize differences to vividly denote different scenarios
- 2 critical uncertainties can produce 4 disparate futures Develop Futures as Scenarios - These are futures resulting from the scenario framework
- Highlight risks and opportunity while picturing each future's evolution
- Challenge participants by considering several future-shaping factors which can be positive or negative Create Narratives - Create stories that read together as a novel
- Imaginative plots and scenarios barring sci-fi themes
- Maintain a link between the present and the prediction Derive Implications - Examine the consequence of each scenario
- Propose solutions, examine alternates and extensions to predictions
- Plan out an next steps: further research or critical decisions 2 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 Watch for warning signals - Be wary of scenarios presenting themselves
- Front-run the reaction to the situation
- Ex. Governmental regulation change, public lawsuits, etc. METHODOLOGY
VIA EXAMPLE Determining the key issue
and associated challenges
Our issue: The Boeing 787
- Background information
- Safety incidents and grounding
- As an airline customer, what is our key focal issue with specific
time and place dimensions? From the airline's perspective, what are the uncertainties and driving forces?
What is their order of importance? Group Activity Applying the group activity results to our airline References:
- A Note on Scenario Planning: David Garvin, Lynn Levesque, Harvard Business Review
- The Economist, "Scenario Planning" http://www.economist.com/node/12000755
- Forbes.com, "The Secret to Successful Scenario Planning",
- New York Times, "Boeing 787 Completes Flight Test", 9 February 2013 - Boeing is in favor of grounding all 787 Dreamliners in use
- Competitor airlines that don't fly the Boeing 787 are beginning to see an increase in customers - Seek legal guidance for having Boeing provide compensation to affected airlines
- Seek influential/notable individuals to endorse our airline's use of the 787 Dreamliner Warning Signals - Examples Strategic Implementation - Examples by Niyanta Mogre, Steven Russo and Daniel Mendoza-Jones TazAir Link to this presentation: http://prezi.com/rr7ci_2hvf_h/edit/?auth_key=i9iy1x7&follow=d8cyju8hh1j6