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Bertil Aldman Lecture 2016

2016 IRCOBI Conference, Malaga, Spain
by

Michiel van Ratingen

on 16 November 2016

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Transcript of Bertil Aldman Lecture 2016

The Past, Present and Future
About NCAP
Testing
Rating
Future
Needs
History
Euro NCAP
1979
1993-1999
2006-2010
2016 Bertil Aldman Memorial Lecture
Decade of Action
Crashworthiness
Seats, Bags & Belts
Child Protection
Pedestrian Protection
Advanced Technology
Towards Automated Driving
Ratings for a New Safety Era
Cars Are Getting Smarter
Smarter is Safer?
text
Emerging themes...
Front and side impact crash tests still form the backbone of most rating programs today — but priorities are changing.
NCAP's true influence comes to light in the fast adoption of head protection airbags, advanced seat belts, anti-whiplash seats, etc.
NHTSA started NCAP in 1979 — in the nineties the concept exploded onto the global scene.
DfT, FIA and SRA were instrumental in setting up Euro NCAP — today a consortium of 12 members and 8 test facilities.
Safer vehicles have a star role in the Decade of Action for Road Safety.
Euro NCAP's MPDB test addresses known limitations of the ODB test and promotes more compatible front-end designs.

Front Compatibility
Moving barrier: 1400 kg, PDB face; 50 km/h; 0 degrees and 50% overlap. Vehicle speed: 50 km/h. THOR-50M, Q10 and Q6
© ADAC
IIHS and US NCAP are focusing in on small overlap and oblique crashes that claim up to 25% of frontal crash deaths in the US.
Narrow Overlap
Euro NCAP MPDB Impact
About a third of killed or seriously injured occupants in side impact are involved in far side crashes.
Far Side Crashes
Investigations into a Far-Side Impact Sled (FSIS) simulator
Sub-system testing meant that vehicle front-end structures became more forgiving in pedestrian collisions.
Areas modified for small overlap performance in the SOI test
© IIHS
Moving barrier: 2486 kg. RMDB, 90 km/h, 15 degrees and 35% moderate overlap. Stationary vehicle under test.
US NCAP Oblique MDB Impact
Fatality reduction by curtain and side
airbags in near-side crashes (NHTSA, 2014)
Share of cars that offered advanced
rear seat restraints (Euro NCAP, 2015)
The installation of Intelligent Seat Belt Reminders on all passenger rear seats.
(Euro NCAP, 2014)
Safe transportation of infants and children requires dedicated solutions — still, good child protection does not carry sufficient weight in most NCAPs.
Child Occupant Protection ratings for low and middle income countries.
© IIHS
LATCH, ISOFIX and i-Size
Euro NCAP's assessment includes vehicle provisions, CRS installation and Q6/Q10 testing
© NHTSA
IIHS Small Overlap Impact
Slightly injured, severely injured or killed car occupants by crash opponent
Source: Germany, 2009. Federal Statistical Office Germany; Road Accidents
Taking account of all injury severity levels and the aging driving population
(Source: ACEA, 2016)
From 2010 onwards, NCAPs started to lock on to the emerging crash avoidance and driver assistance systems.
The
"Assessment of Vehicles with Deployable Systems"
procedure is the first example of HBM-based virtual testing in ratings
Average total points score in Euro NCAP subsystem tests from 2007 to 2015
© MIROS
Megatrends
Towards Zero Fatalities
Traditional disciplines are important but they are no longer the whole story!
Cars are developing "senses" but they are still are far from being called intelligent.
9 of 10 crashes caused by human error
but human drivers are still way better than self-driving cars
Crash avoidance features reduce crashes
but effectiveness is still low and not all systems are good
Driver has more support
More systems are being offered
but not all features are equally acceptable or used
The Ironies of Automation
but new safety risks arise (cyber-security, hand-over, software error)
Reduced crash risk
Sense
Think
Act
Act
Think
Sense
© CrashNet1.com
Vehicle dynamic sensors, vision systems, GNSS antennas
Slip, steering, braking control, ECU, etc.
Steering system, braking system, HMI, engine management
Seatbelt, airbags, etc.
Crash sensors
ACU, Domain Controller, etc.
but smarter vehicles may be giving drivers a false sense of security
source: ZF TRW
The push towards automated driving will accelerate the spread of safety systems and drive integration across functions.
2013
2014
Intelligent Speed Assistance
AEB City, Inter-urban and Lane Support
2018
2016
2009
2011
AEB Pedestrian
Front Crash Prevention
ESC
Forward Collision Warning
Lane Departure Warning

Recommended Advanced Technology Features
AEB Cyclist
New test scenarios enabled by GST
Vehicle Active Safety Award
AEB
LDW
Source: Democratising car safety: roadmap for safer cars 2020 (Global NCAP, 2015)
New and refined injury criteria,
e.g.
Brain Injury Criterion (BrIC)
new BLE test
Euro NCAP Advanced
Thresholds for
5 stars overall rating
(set in 2008)
Threshold for
AEB VRU scoring
Coming to grips with rapidly evolving auto technology and telematics solutions — the 4 biggest challenges we face.
source: ZF TRW
No NCAP is the same - there are commonalities but also many differences.
Global Differences
Australasian NCAP
China NCAP
Euro NCAP
IIHS
Japan NCAP
Korea NCAP

Latin NCAP
ASEAN NCAP
US NCAP
2016
Front Moderate
Offset
Front Full Overlap
Front Small
Overlap
Side Barrier
Side Pole
Whiplash sled
Roll-over
Roof crush
Pedestrian
Subsystem
ISOFIX/LATCH
Seat Belt
Reminder
ESC or Braking
FCW / AEB
LDW / LKA
Speed Assist
Rearview Camera
Adaptive Headlights
Test included in vehicle rating
Bonus points or pre-condition in the rating
(not always tested)
Recommendation, award or stand-alone rating
© Dynamic Research, Inc.
Integrated Safety Ratings
NCAPs are slowly coming around to the benefits of an integrated safety rating.
Automated Cars in Mixed Traffic
Advanced Human Surrogates
Future ADAS assessment based on the critical cases of unsafe performance resulting from poor design and flaws in HMI.
The driver's role will gradually change from pilot to operator overseeing machine driving. Ironically, the role of the human may become more crucial for safe driving.
of Consumer Safety Ratings
Source: "Ironies of Automation" by Lisanne Bainbridge
Biomechanics research
Product Development
Regulation & NCAP
Will the age of crash test dummy dominance finally have to come to an end?
Collinear and perpendicular test configurations
2005
Increased complexity: angled and lower severity test configurations, different occupant sizes
2015
2025
Corpulence and other body proportions, seating postures, muscle attenuation.
© Volvo Cars
Source: Evaluation and assessment of active safety systems. openPASS Toolset | BMW AG
Advanced Frontal Impact Dummy
Cooperative Accident Study (2016)
GIDAS
LAB
Volvo
Cars
RAIDS
* Source: Nonconformities in real-world fatal crashes--electronic stability control and seat belt reminders. A. Lie (2012)
SBR result in higher seat belt use rates*
Data from in-car telematics can reveal detailed patterns and insights into vehicle and fleet behaviour
Democratising Safety
THOR offers human-like characteristics in crash and state-of-the-art measurement capability
Reducing head and thorax injuries by keeping the occupant in place and avoiding hard contact with the far side of the vehicle.
Incorporating telematics & cloud system updates

Rating of automated driving functions
Changing occupant interior environment
Safety assessment based on real traffic scenarios
Blind Spot Monitoring, Parking Aid, etc.
ACC, Queue Assist, Navigation, etc.
AEB, Emergency
Lane Keeping, etc.
Automated
Highway Driving,
Auto Valet Parking, etc.
Support functions
Comfort functions
Safety functions
Automated driving
More systems are being offered
All rights reserved.
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