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NAST presentation: Quantifying Tradeoffs of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies among Various Ecosystems in the Quinali River Watershed, Albay

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Transcript of NAST presentation: Quantifying Tradeoffs of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies among Various Ecosystems in the Quinali River Watershed, Albay

Quantifying Tradeoffs of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies among Various Ecosystems in the Quinali River Watershed, Albay, Philippines
why Quinali?
The Bicol River Basin (BRB) is located within the provinces of Camarines Sur and Albay in Region V covering a total area of about 317,389 has.
Quinali Watershed, which is located within the BRB is around 53,566 hectares located within Albay, and covering 6 municipalities.
The BRB has a population that exceeds 1.5 million, and majority of its population is dependent on agriculture.
Threatened by extensive flooding and inundation caused by tropical storms and typhoons that frequent the region.
The severe degradation of forest and biodiversity in the watershed areas is manifested by dwindling forest cover and the endangered species of flora and fauna.
(from: B+WISER General 5-year Workplan)
Adaptation strategies in one sector could have positive and/or negative impact in
other sectors, i.e., trade-offs do exist.
to determine potential synergies and conflicts between adaptation strategies, and

to identify
“best bet”
and
“win-win”
adaptation strategies.
Quantifying Tradeoffs of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies among Various Ecosystems in the Quinali River Watershed, Albay, Philippines
REGINE JOY P. EVANGELISTA*, DR. JUAN M. PULHIN***, DR. RODEL D. LASCO**, DR. MA.VICTORIA O. ESPALDON***, DR. ELENO O. PERALTA***, DR. FLORENCIA B. PULHIN**, KRISTINE B. GARCIA**




*School of Environmental Science and Management, UPLB
*World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF-Philippines),
** University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB)
Second National Climate Conference:
Linking Climate Knowledge to Action
Traders Hotel Manila, Philippines
26 September 2013
Climate change presents the conundrum of increasingly frequent high impact events (droughts, floods, storms) in combination with highly uncertain timing and location—as well as limited financial resource and still-untested climate adaptation techniques (Stark et. al, 2009).
Which adaptation strategy
should be implemented?

Tradeoff Analysis of Adaptation Strategies for Natural Resources, Water Resources, and Local Institutions in the Philippines
R. D. Lasco, R. V. O. Cruz, J. M. Pulhin, and F. B. Pulhin
synergy
conflict
Choose adaptation strategies that maximize synergy and avoid conflict.
The concept of trade-offs arises from the idea that resources are scarce.

The limited resources, particularly of LGUs, present the problem of selecting which adaptations strategies to prioritize.

There are few quantitative approach to analyzing tradeoff and existing approaches require resources inaccessible to LGUs.

Since cost is the major limiting factor of adaptation strategies (Lasco, et al., 2006), quantifying tradeoffs may present a more systematic planning and decision-making tool to prioritizing and selecting which adaptation program to implement.
Adaptation
Options:

There is a need to quantify tradeoffs!
rationale and objectives
Certain ecosystems are more vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change than others. In fact, some of the areas richest in biodiversity are those that are also the most vulnerable, such as wetlands, coastal areas, and tropical forests (CBD, 2012)

Because of the interdependence of ecosystems, projects or policies implemented for the benefit of one sector often create spillover effects, both positive and negative, for other sectors. Yet cross-spillover effects or trade-offs are seldom considered (Lasco, et al. 2007).
why ecosystems?
Quantifying Tradeoffs of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies among Various Ecosystems in the Quinali River Watershed, Albay, Philippines
This study tests two main hypothesis:

Specific adaptation strategies or programs may complement or conflict with adaptation strategies in other sectors on a watershed scale.

Negative or positive tradeoff between sectors may be lower or higher (depending on the costs and benefits of the adaptation program or project).
Tradeoff analysis in the planning process. (Adapted from the Tradeoff Analysis Planning and Procedures Guidebook; U.S Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, April 2002)
Quantifying Tradeoffs of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies among Various Ecosystems in the Quinali River Watershed, Albay, Philippines
Quantifying Tradeoffs of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies among Various Ecosystems in the Quinali River Watershed, Albay, Philippines
significance & framework
General Framework
Theoretical Framework
significance of the study
This study may contribute to a pragmatic process of selecting and prioritizing effective and efficient adaptation options to climate change.

It is anticipated that the results of this study will serve to better inform policy makers at the local and national levels in the Philippines and enable more effective decision-making with respect to addressing the impacts of climate change.

While, there is, in general, no technical method by which adaptation options could be optimized to reach a decision in an indisputably optimal way, quantitative and technical analysis can contribute to a systematic and well-informed outcome.

Upland
Midland
Lowland
Quantifying Tradeoffs of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies among Various Ecosystems in the Quinali River Watershed, Albay, Philippines
methodology
To do this, a combination of participatory approaches (multi-sectoral consultation workshops, experts meetings, and focus group discussions ) and economic valuation techniques will be used.
Selection of Adaptation Options
To systematically select the programs/projects/activities that will be included in the analysis, the following selection method will be used:
1. Adaptation strategies BEING implemented
in the QRW will be collected through multi-
stakeholders consultations.

2. The strategies will be categorized into
projects that are implemented in the
upland, midland, or lowland (or both/all).

3. For each sector, adaptation strategies from
the LCCAP with be narrowed down into
programs/projects/activities that:

4. The strategies will be further grouped into
projects that addresses similar objectives.

5. From the pool of acceptable adaptation
options, the researcher will further choose
adaptation options from each category
based on 2 areas of assessment:
Address present day impacts (Climate variability and extremes)
Are already (or soon to be) implemented
Have clear and measurable objectives

Strategies applicable only to the specific ecosystems
Strategies applicable to all ecosystems

Inventory of the costs and benefits will be done through Key Informant Interviews (LGU, MDPO, Program leader).

The direct project impacts will be identified through KIIs with LGU and community leaders, as well as review of scientific literature.

Valuation of impacts (positive or negative).

Inventory of Cost and Benefits
The tradeoffs to other ecosystems will be identified via stakeholders and expert consultation and literature reviews.

This will be validated through FGDs conducted in communities representative of the ecosystem/sector affected.
The directs impacts and (negative and positive) tradeoffs will be assigned a monetary value using economic valuation tools.

Costs or negative impacts will be assigned a negative value while benefits are positive.

Values will be discounted for the maximum year of project implementation.
Tradeoff Analysis
The following are the different valuation methods that may be used in this study (depending on applicability):
• Physical / production linkages
– Market prices
– Replacement costs
– Damage costs
– Net factor income
– Production function approach

• Value transfer/Benefit Transfer method
Qualitative Analysis
Quantitative Analysis
Prioritization of Adaptation Options
The main goal of this study is to come up with a quantitative approach to analyzing tradeoffs between adaptation projects and programs through economic valuation, specifically in the Quinali Watershed in Albay.
Specifically, this research aims to meet the following objectives:

1. Identify and evaluate ng adaptation strategies implemented in the study area
2. Select adaptation strategies that will be evaluated based on a set of criteria;
3. Identify the costs of each adaptation strategy and its direct benefits and
spill-over effects to other ecosystems;
4. Assign monetary values to each costs and benefits;
5. Analyze the negative and positive tradeoffs of each adaptation strategy
between ecosystems (upland, lowland, coastal) ; and
6. Identify the best-bet or win-win strategies that have the highest value of
positive tradeoff.


Cost is the major limiting factor of adaptation strategies (Lasco, et al., 2006), quantifying tradeoffs may present a systematic planning and decision-making tool to prioritizing and selecting which adaptation program to implement.

Due to time and resource constraints, this study will be limited by certain assumptions. This includes the timeframe of analysis (time frame of impacts, discounting), averaging of benefits and costs among population, information on project implementation and cost will rely on LGU, among others.

These limitations are welcome, since the ultimate goal is to present a usable and doable approach to tradeoff analysis that decision makers can easily adopt, despite of limited resources
summary and implications
Quantifying Tradeoffs of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies among Various Ecosystems in the Quinali River Watershed, Albay, Philippines
While there is a potential to subjectivity, the methodology for the proposed study may have important implications for policy planning and management with respect to addressing the impacts of climate change in a watershed setting and considering also the available resources.

Quantifying adaptation strategies may enable more effective decision-making with respect to addressing the impacts of climate change.
References and Credits
R. D. Lasco, R. V. O. Cruz, J. M. Pulhin, and F. B. Pulhin. 2006. Tradeoff Analysis of Adaptation Strategies for Natural Resources, Water Resources, and Local Institutions in the Philippines. AIACC Working Paper No. 32. www.aiaccproject.org.

Stark et al. 2009. Climate Change, Adaptation, and Conflict: A Preliminary Review of the Issues.CMM Discussion Paper No. 1. United States Agency for International Development. http://www.fess-global.org/Publications.

Convention on Biological Diversity. 2012. Identifying Vulnerable Ecosystems and Biodiversity. http://adaptation.cbd.int/vulnerabilities.shtml.

J. Salceda and R. Cruz. 2013. ALBAY Watershed-Based Comprehensive Land Use Planning with Climate Change & Climate-related Hazards consideration. Presentation. kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cab/ALBAY_Risk%20Reduction.pdf‎

B+WISER (Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience () Program). General 5-Year Workplan.

Associated Press. http://www.mgwordpress.mediaglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/abnormal.jpg

Charles Yoe. 2002. Tradeoff Analysis Planning and Procedures Guidebook; U.S Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources,




R. Cruz and J. Salceda. 2010. ALBAY Watershed-Based Comprehensive Land Use Planning
with Climate Change & Climate-related Hazards consideration.
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