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2013 CES Trends to Watch
Shawn Dubravacon 24 January 2013
Transcript of 2013 CES Trends to Watch
@twoopinions Chief Economist & Senior Director of Research 1950 1843. The advancement of the arts, from year to year, taxes our credulity and seems to presage the arrival of that period when human improvement must end - - Patent Office Commissioner Henry Ellsworth - 1843 report to Congress 2012 2011 2010 1960 1990 2000 2007. Apple Launches the iPhone. 2012. Google driverless cars drive 300K miles accident-free. 2013 2011. IBM's Watson beats the Ken .. - the world's best Jeopardy player 1980. McKinsey & Co. predict cell phone penetration in the U.S. will reach 900,000 by 2000. 2000. US mobile phone subscriptions surpass 109 million and worldwide users surpass 1 billion 1984. Apple Launches the Machintosh - the first commercially successful computer to utilize a graphical UI. 1981. The Xerox Star is released with a price tag of $75,000. It is the first computer to use a graphical user interface. It fails to become commercially successful. 1980 1970 1940 "2012 will be the year of the interface..." - Shawn DuBravac 1930 1920 1900 1910 1890 1880 1870 1850 1860 1840 1844. Samuel F.B. Morse sends the telegraph message "What hath God wrought? to officially open the Baltimore-Washington telegraph line 1877. Thomas Edison invents the phonograph 1895. Guglielmo Marconi sends and receives wireless signals in Italy. Alexander S. Popov accomplishes the same feat in Russia. 1900. Eldridge R. Johnson founds Consolidated Talking Machine Company which is changed to Victor Talking Machine Company in 1901. 1882. Lars Ericsson invents the telephone handset with a combined microphone and earpiece. 1901. Guglielmo Marconi recieves the first transatlantic wireless telegraph message 1906. Reginald Fessenden trasmits the first voice and music via AM radio on Christmas Eve. 1857. Sir Charles Wheatstone introduces continuously feeding paper tape that can be used for storing and reading data. 1942. John Vincent Atanasoff and Clifford Berry successfully test the first electronic computer, the ABC 1956. Herbert Simon predicts "machines will be capable, within 20 years, of doing any work a man can do...." 1965. Philosopher Hubert Dreyfus compares AI to "alchemy" and writes, "no chess program can play even amateur chess." 1967. The First International CES opens in New York City. 1967. Richard Greenblatt writes the chess program Mac Hack VI on a Digital Equipment Corporation PDP-6 computer with 16K of memory. It beats Hubert Dreyfus 1975. The first Betamax VCR is sold. 1971. IBM introduces the industry's first flexible magnetic diskette and the "floppy disk" is born. 1977. The Atari 2600 goes on sale 1972. Ralph Baer invents the first home video game console to connect to a TV set—the Magnavox Odyssey. 2001. The first Apple iPod is sold. 65% of mobile use is now
non-communication the smartphone has become the viewfinder of your digital life A Post-Smartphone Era The Age of Algorithms Contextual Connectivity Changing Flow of Storytelling mobile connectivity perpetuates the telephone model (shared minutes, devices subsidies, etc) but the entire ecosystem is becoming less beholden to telephony unintended consequences of smartphones and tablets as hub devices Device
Interface – App 2006. Nintendo launches the Wii gaming system - the first to utilize accelerometers. growth in connected devices + 'sensor'ization + curation (services) increasing sensor density is enabling the digitization everyday things NFC Thermal Infrared In recent years "Smart" has been used as a synonym for connected. 1879. Thomas Edison invents the incandescent light bulb Digital Omnivores:
the tale of "secondary" screens Changing Face of Computing this presentation is available at: http://bit.ly/2013CEStrends High Pixel Density Spills to All Screens Ultra HDTV Digital to Analog Transition 1998. The first HDTV set is sold at Dow Audio/Video in San Diego, CA. MEMS Pressure In an age of algorithms data is the new currency
Progressive Snapshot Pay as You Drive (PAYD) – lower rates if you allow GPS data to be shared