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Who Lost Iraq?

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by

Lars Hinrichsen

on 9 July 2014

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Transcript of Who Lost Iraq?

Kosovo
Serb-Albanian Conflict
No functioning government
Primary Assets:
• PSYOP company
• Civil Affairs battalion
• Mobile Public Affairs detachment
• Medical Units
• Combat Camera Teams
• Integration

Background
Irregular Warfare (IW)
Air Mobility
Who lost Iraq?
Information Ops Irregular Warfare Air Mobility
Principles of War:
Mass
Maneuver
Surprise
Courses of Action:
Massive buildup
Oilfield seizure
Mass
"Concentrate the effects of combat power
at the decisive place and time" (FM 3-0, A-1)
Buildup
Massive Troop Buildup in Middle East
Deterring and Stabilizing Force
Ready to respond in the event hostilities break out
Activation of Civil Reserve Air Fleet
Phases 1 & 2
Historical Precedent
Operation DESERT SHIELD / DESERT STORM
First troops to theater - 7 Aug 1990
CRAF Activated - 17 Aug 1990
7 Aug 1990 - 11 Apr 1991
509,129 troops carried
594,730 tons carried
1/4 by CRAF
Achieved Mass
Maneuver & Surprise
"Place the enemy in a disadvantageous position through the flexible application of combat power" (FM 3-0, A-2)
"Strike an enemy at a time or place or in a manner for which he is unprepared" (FM 3-0, A-3)
Air Mobility COA
Oilfield Seizure in Kurdistan
Airborne assault using Rapid Response Force
Control oil wells in an effort to stabilize world economy
Deter other major powers from intervening
Create a potential base for humanitarian operations
Historical example
Operation JUST CAUSE
Air Mobility doctrine used to gain maneuver and surprise to stabilize Panama and achieve national objectives
20 Dec 1989: C-130s and C-141s drop 82nd Airborne and Rangers to seize key objectives
Army Special Forces, Navy SEALs, Civil Affairs (Irregular Warfare)
PSYOPs (Information Ops)
Panamanian Defense Force placed in "disadvantageous position"
"A violent struggle...for
legitimacy
and
influence
over the population(s). IW favors indirect and asymmetric approaches...in order to erode an adversary's power" (AFDD 3-2, 2013, pg. 10)
Tools of IW
Foreign Internal Defense (FID)
Unconventional Warfare (UW)
Counterinsurgency (COIN)
Counterterrorism (CT)
Stability Operations (SO)
Foreign Internal Defense (FID)
Participation of a government taken by another government to free and protect its society from insurgency, terrorism, and other threats to its security. (AFDD 3-2, 2013, pg 14)

One government helping another/DIME

Special Operations Forces

Advising, Training, Assisting, and Equipping HN forces

FID + COIN, CT, SO

2000's - Operation ENDURING FREEDOM - Philippines

1980's - Communist insurgency in El Salvador
OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM - PHILIPPINES
Foreign Internal Defense (FID)
2000's: Assist the Republic of the Philippines (RP) government in the destruction of the terrorist Abu Sayyaf Group (JP 3-22, 2010, pg. 160)

Protect from insurgency & terrorism

One government helping another = DI
M
E

600 U.S. military personnel advised AFP (VOA New, 2009)

Advised, Trained, Assisted

Self-defense only
U.S. Military Advisory Group in the Republic of El Salvador
Foreign Internal Defense (FID)
1980's: " U.S. Military Advisory Group in El Salvador helped combat a communist supported insurgent threat" (Cale, 1996)

Soviet Union and Cuba, sponsoring insurgent movement

COIN training - Green Berets primary duty in El Salvador

Protect from insurgency & terrorism

United States financial aid - $62M

One government helping another = DI
ME

56 U.S. military personnel
Stability Operations (SO)
"Support the HN government’s ability to bolster its
legitimacy
and
influence
over the relevant population." (AFDD 3-2, 2013, pg. 26)
"Strategies should be developed with the goal of enhancing HN
legitimacy
and
influence
, while eroding an adversary's power, influence, and will." (AFDD 3-2, 2013, pg. 29)
Military missions, conducted outside the United States to maintain or reestablish a secure environment, governmental services, emergency infrastructure reconstruction, and humanitarian relief. (AFDD 3-2, 2013, pg. 14)

Subtle application of power

Prevent alienation of population

Maintain legitimacy of HN government

1989 - Operation JUST CAUSE (Secure Environment)

2000's - Operation NEW HORIZON (Humanitarian)
Panama - Operation JUST CAUSE
Stability Operations (SO)
"US committed forces in Panama to protect US citizens, secure the Panama Canal, support democracy for the people of Panama, and apprehend Manuel Noriega." (JP 3-07, 2011, pg. 37)

Reestablish secure environment
Removed Noriega
Added 450 civil affairs and psychological ops personnel

Subtle application of power
10K additional troops
December 20, 1989 - January 31, 1990 (42 days)

Maintained legitimacy of HN government
President Guillermo Endara
Refine skills of the HN military’s engineers, medical personnel, and support staff. (JP 3-07, 2011, pg. 40)

US and HN working together

Military civic assistance program (Humanitarian)
Food
Medical
Emergency Shelter
Agricultural assistance

"$150 million in Central American relief operations" (Global Security, 2011)


Operation NEW HORIZON
Stability Operations (SO)
o Effects based
o Strategic Effects
o Info Initiative
o Comm Synch needed for campaign
o Info Superiority Decision Superiority
o Culture Based
Resultant Fury
Effects-Based Public Affairs
Push-pull tactic
Pushed to 20%
Pulled by 80%

o Can terrorism be defeated with bombs and bullets?
o Terrorism is psychological warfare waged through the media
Inhibit potential terrorists from joining
Produce dissension within groups
Facilitate exit from groups
Reduce support for groups and their leaders
Insulating the populace from terrorism

o Sectarian Civil War
o Grand Bargain
o Initial Progress
o Convoy Attack
o Forced Relocation
o Full Scale Battle
o Independent Kurdistan
o Oil rose to $250 per Barrel
o (Real World $105)
o Iran’s Nuclear Protection
o Radical Sunni Forces
o $260 per barrel
o Iran Demands Reparations
o US military support
o $500 per barrel
o UN Security Council Meeting
o China's Support
o Pakistan's Support
o Russia's Support
o Assist multi-national coalition in controlling oil production facilities in Northern Iraq

o Assist multi-national coalition in stabilizing the security situation in Iraq and its neighboring states

o Monitor the buildup of Chinese, Russian, Iranian forces and the activity of non-state actors hostile toward oil production in the region
Now What?
Information Operations
Influence Ops
• Psychological Ops
• Military Deception
• OPSEC
• Counter Intelligence
• Public Affairs Ops
• Counterpropaganda

Network Warfare Ops
Desired effects across analog and digital network
Attack
Defense
Warfare Support

Find and fix enemies: SIGINT

Electronic Warfare Ops
Desired effects across the electromagnetic domain
Attack
Protection
Warfare Support

Jam and intercept comms
prevent IEDs
Protect from IR and jamming
Integrated Control Enablers
• Network Ops and Info Assurance
• ISR
• Predictive Battlespace Awareness
• Precision Navigation and Timing

Tensions Rise
Int'l Involvement
Too Complicated
Future
Unconventional Warfare (UW)
Enable a resistance movement to or overthrow a government/occupying power by operating underground, auxiliary, and guerrilla force in a denied area. (AFDD 3-2, 2013, pg. 14)

USSOCOM

Exploit a hostile DIME

Indigenous Resistance Forces

Long term

Guerrilla Warfare, Sabotage, Intelligence Activities, and Unconventional Assisted Recovery
Secure Oil Fields, Stabilize Security Situation, Deter Aggression
Shi’a only a majority in Iran, Iraq, and Bahrain
Politically significant in Lebanon and Azerbaijan



Sunni/Shi’a: 75% and Kurds: 15%
65% Shi’a and 35% Sunni
Why Divide?
Ba’ath party took control in 1968 until 2003
(Saddam from 1979 to 2003)

Counterinsurgency (COIN)
Actions to render environments inhospitable to terrorist networks. (AFDD 3-2, 2013, pg. 13)

Undermine power, will, credibility

Provide security

Long-range employment of assets

Long term

Inelegance maturity
Counterterrorism (CT)
"Comprehensive civilian and military efforts taken to defeat an insurgency and to address any core grievances" (AFDD 3-2, 2013, pg. 13)

Insurgency = overthrow government/societal structure

Local, Regional, and Global Entities
Extremist cells

Sizable commitment of assets
Actions
Operation SWIFT FREEDOM
Peacekeeping
Media Dominance
Collect on Adversaries

Assumptions
Risks
Resources
Immediate Goals
Irregular Warfare COA
6 Dec 2001 - C-17s and C-130s seized an airfield for follow-on operations
Task Force of US Marines, Rangers, Navy Seabees, and Australian Special Forces
Opened the airfield and furthered the Coalition's ability to effectively maneuver
Defend Info Network
Collect on Adversaries
Information Dominance
Secure Oil Fields, Stabilize Security Situation, Deter Aggression

Foreign Internal Defense

Stability Operations
Doctrine:
Airlift
Air Refueling
Global Air Mobility Support System
Mission Analysis
Assumptions
The American public will not support a large scale operation in Iraq

Risks
Over reaching operations cost (Mod)
Reduced military funding (Mod)
Outnumbered forces (High)

Resources
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