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The New Population Bomb: The Four Megatrends That Will Chang

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Angela Caetano

on 1 April 2014

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Transcript of The New Population Bomb: The Four Megatrends That Will Chang

Aging Population in Developed Countries
. “In 2050, approximately 30 percent of Americans, Canadians, Chinese, and Europeans will be over 60, as will more than 40 percent of Japanese and South Koreans.”
Increase of Undereducated, Underemployed Youth in Developing Countrries
“Part of the reason developed countries will be less economically dynamic in the coming decades is that their populations will become substantially older.”
Rise of Overcrowded Megacities in the Developing World
This rapid urbanization of the developing world “will have far lower per capita incomes than did man industrial countries when they first urbanized.” Megacities are vulnerable to gangs, violence and rebellions.
The New Population Bomb: The Four Megatrends That Will Change the World
Jack A. Goldstone
Dr. Goldstone's Past Work:
US Agency for International Development & the World Bank - democracy assistance to fragile states
Forcasting global conflict and terrorism
Areas of Expertise
Revolutions & Social Movements
Comparative Economic Development
Comparative Politics
Conflict & Rebellion
Fragile States
Political Demography
Current Work/Research:
Conditions for building democracy and stability in developing nations
The impact of population change on the global economy
International security
Cultural origins of modern economic growth
He blogs regularly on global trends and world events at: www.newpopulation.com
Discussion Question
How do you think the increase of undereducated youth will impact the global economy?
“Thus, the rapid urbanization of the developing world in the decades ahead might bring, in exaggerated form, problems similar to those that urbanization brought to nineteenth century Europe. Back then, cyclical employment, inadequate policing, and limited sanitation and education often spawned widespread labor strife, periodic violence, and sometimes – even revolutions.”
Goldstone examines a series of future demographic trends that will greatly affect international security in the twenty first century.
How policy makers adjust to these changes now will determine the course of global and economic stability for years to come.
There are four megatrends taking place
He suggests that the strategic and economic policies that are in place are out-of-date and new ones are necessary in order to avoid some of the outcomes of these trends.
Decreased Population in Developed Countries Relative to Developing Countries
“Growth is expected to be particularly dramatic in the least developed countries of the world, which are projected to double in size from 898 million inhabitants in 2013 to 1.8 billion in 2050 and to 2.9 billion in 2100. High population growth rates prevail in many developing countries, most of which are on the UN’s list of 49 least developed countries.”
Discussion Question
What implications might this cause globally? What are some suggestions on how this can be controlled?
Possible Outcome
Mass starvation is one of the implications and if action is not taken, and policies are not made to adapt to this change, we will be faced with many consequences
Given Goldstone's four trends and possible outcomes, do you think there is more evidence suggesting we should be taking action, or will everything balance itself out on its own?
Full transcript