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The Future in a World of Digitally Defined Objects

Shawn DuBravac, CEA's Chief Economist explores a future filled with digital objects.
by

Shawn DuBravac, PhD

on 19 October 2016

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Transcript of The Future in a World of Digitally Defined Objects

The Future in a World of Digitally Defined Objects
Shawn DuBravac, PhD
Chief Economist & Director of Research
1950
1843. The advancement of the arts, from year to year, taxes our credulity and seems to presage the arrival of that period when human improvement must end - - Patent Office Commissioner Henry Ellsworth - 1843 report to Congress
2012
2011
2010
1960
1990
2000
2007. Apple Launches the iPhone.
2012. Google driverless cars drive 300K miles accident-free.
2013
2011. IBM's Watson beats the Ken .. - the world's best Jeopardy player
1980. McKinsey & Co. predict cell phone penetration in the U.S. will reach 900,000 by 2000.
2000. US mobile phone subscriptions surpass 109 million and worldwide users surpass 1 billion
1984. Apple Launches the Machintosh - the first commercially successful computer to utilize a graphical UI.
1981. The Xerox Star is released with a price tag of $75,000. It is the first computer to use a graphical user interface. It fails to become commercially successful.
1980
1970
1940
"2012 will be the year of the interface..." - Shawn DuBravac
1930
1920
1900
1910
1890
1880
1870
1850
1860
1840
1844. Samuel F.B. Morse sends the telegraph message "What hath God wrought?" to officially open the Baltimore-Washington telegraph line
1877. Thomas Edison invents the phonograph
1895. Guglielmo Marconi sends and receives wireless signals in Italy. Alexander S. Popov accomplishes the same feat in Russia.
1900. Eldridge R. Johnson founds Consolidated Talking Machine Company which is changed to Victor Talking Machine Company in 1901.
1882. Lars Ericsson invents the telephone handset with a combined microphone and earpiece.
1901. Guglielmo Marconi recieves the first transatlantic wireless telegraph message
1906. Reginald Fessenden trasmits the first voice and music via AM radio on Christmas Eve.
1857. Sir Charles Wheatstone introduces continuously feeding paper tape that can be used for storing and reading data.
1942. John Vincent Atanasoff and Clifford Berry successfully test the first electronic computer, the ABC
1956. Herbert Simon predicts "machines will be capable, within 20 years, of doing any work a man can do...."
1965. Philosopher Hubert Dreyfus compares AI to "alchemy" and writes, "no chess program can play even amateur chess."
1967. The First International CES opens in New York City.
1967. Richard Greenblatt writes the chess program Mac Hack VI on a Digital Equipment Corporation PDP-6 computer with 16K of memory. It beats Hubert Dreyfus
1975. The first Betamax VCR is sold.
1971. IBM introduces the industry's first flexible magnetic diskette and the "floppy disk" is born.
1977. The Atari 2600 goes on sale
1972. Ralph Baer invents the first home video game console to connect to a TV set—the Magnavox Odyssey.
2001. The first Apple iPod is sold.
2006. Nintendo launches the Wii gaming system - the first to utilize accelerometers.
1879. Thomas Edison invents the incandescent light bulb
1998. The first HDTV set is sold at Dow Audio/Video in San Diego, CA.
1981. The first CD player debuts at the International CES.
2014
2015
1890. Herman Hollerith invents a mechanical tabulator based on punched cards to rapidly tabulate statistics from millions of pieces of data. It allows the 1890 Census to be completed in one year. The previous 1880 census had taken eight years.
1956. IBM ships a 305 RAMAC to Zellerbach Paper in San Francisco - ushering in the era of magnetic disk storage and the first modern hard drive


Pillars of our
1. ubiquitous computing
2. cheap digital storage
3. connectivity
4. proliferation of digital devices
5. 'sensor'ization of tech

Digital Destiny
digitization
connection
'sensor'ization
Digitization of Our Physical Space
Physical (analog) Space
Digitization
Micro-customization
predictive customization
redefining recommendation
+
+
The Internet of ME!
1.7B
50B
2B
Hugo Gernsback, 1963
Shawn G. DuBravac, PhD, CFA
Chief Economist
Consumer Electronics Association
@ShawnDuBravac
sdubravac@CTA.TECH
202.556.3434

The Big Questions for
Innovation in 2016
1. What to digitize next
2. How to provide connectivity
3. Where to embed & deploy
sensors
4. What is the use-case scenario

@ShawnDuBravac
available @: http://bitly.com/digitaldestiny
Full transcript