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The Future in a World of Digitally Defined Objects
Transcript of The Future in a World of Digitally Defined Objects
Shawn DuBravac, PhD
Chief Economist & Director of Research
1843. The advancement of the arts, from year to year, taxes our credulity and seems to presage the arrival of that period when human improvement must end - - Patent Office Commissioner Henry Ellsworth - 1843 report to Congress
2007. Apple Launches the iPhone.
2012. Google driverless cars drive 300K miles accident-free.
2011. IBM's Watson beats the Ken .. - the world's best Jeopardy player
1980. McKinsey & Co. predict cell phone penetration in the U.S. will reach 900,000 by 2000.
2000. US mobile phone subscriptions surpass 109 million and worldwide users surpass 1 billion
1984. Apple Launches the Machintosh - the first commercially successful computer to utilize a graphical UI.
1981. The Xerox Star is released with a price tag of $75,000. It is the first computer to use a graphical user interface. It fails to become commercially successful.
"2012 will be the year of the interface..." - Shawn DuBravac
1844. Samuel F.B. Morse sends the telegraph message "What hath God wrought?" to officially open the Baltimore-Washington telegraph line
1877. Thomas Edison invents the phonograph
1895. Guglielmo Marconi sends and receives wireless signals in Italy. Alexander S. Popov accomplishes the same feat in Russia.
1900. Eldridge R. Johnson founds Consolidated Talking Machine Company which is changed to Victor Talking Machine Company in 1901.
1882. Lars Ericsson invents the telephone handset with a combined microphone and earpiece.
1901. Guglielmo Marconi recieves the first transatlantic wireless telegraph message
1906. Reginald Fessenden trasmits the first voice and music via AM radio on Christmas Eve.
1857. Sir Charles Wheatstone introduces continuously feeding paper tape that can be used for storing and reading data.
1942. John Vincent Atanasoff and Clifford Berry successfully test the first electronic computer, the ABC
1956. Herbert Simon predicts "machines will be capable, within 20 years, of doing any work a man can do...."
1965. Philosopher Hubert Dreyfus compares AI to "alchemy" and writes, "no chess program can play even amateur chess."
1967. The First International CES opens in New York City.
1967. Richard Greenblatt writes the chess program Mac Hack VI on a Digital Equipment Corporation PDP-6 computer with 16K of memory. It beats Hubert Dreyfus
1975. The first Betamax VCR is sold.
1971. IBM introduces the industry's first flexible magnetic diskette and the "floppy disk" is born.
1977. The Atari 2600 goes on sale
1972. Ralph Baer invents the first home video game console to connect to a TV set—the Magnavox Odyssey.
2001. The first Apple iPod is sold.
2006. Nintendo launches the Wii gaming system - the first to utilize accelerometers.
1879. Thomas Edison invents the incandescent light bulb
1998. The first HDTV set is sold at Dow Audio/Video in San Diego, CA.
1981. The first CD player debuts at the International CES.
1890. Herman Hollerith invents a mechanical tabulator based on punched cards to rapidly tabulate statistics from millions of pieces of data. It allows the 1890 Census to be completed in one year. The previous 1880 census had taken eight years.
1956. IBM ships a 305 RAMAC to Zellerbach Paper in San Francisco - ushering in the era of magnetic disk storage and the first modern hard drive
Pillars of our
1. ubiquitous computing
2. cheap digital storage
4. proliferation of digital devices
5. 'sensor'ization of tech
Digitization of Our Physical Space
Physical (analog) Space
The Internet of ME!
Hugo Gernsback, 1963
Shawn G. DuBravac, PhD, CFA
Consumer Electronics Association
The Big Questions for
Innovation in 2017
1. What to digitize next
2. How to provide connectivity
3. Where to embed & deploy
4. What is the use-case scenario
available @: http://bitly.com/digitaldestiny
begets ultimate personalization
3G = 384 Kbps = 26 hours
4G = 100 Mbps = 6 minutes
5G = >10 Gbps = 3.6 seconds
Exponential Change of 5G
5x Lower Latency
1000x Data Volumes
10x-100x End User Data Rates