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Transcript of Blink
Why we generally fall for tall and handsome men
Brian & Nick
Julie and Rosamina
The Power of Thinking without Thinking
by author Malcolm Gladwell
The Theory of Thin Slices
The Locked Door:
The Secret Life of Snap Decisions
The Warren Harding Error
Natasha and Jeremy
In 2002 the Pentagon staged one of the largest war games in history. They called it the Millennium Challenge. The scenario it enacted was very similar to our situation with Saddam Hussein at that time - a rebel military commander in the Persian Gulf was harboring terrorists and spewing Anti-American propaganda.
In Millennium Challenge the rogue commander was played by a former Marine commander named Paul Van Riper.
Basically our chapter talks about making quick decisions that could affect everyone and the outcome of the situation.
He called faults when watching
tennis before it would happen and
was always right.
Seven Seconds in the Bronx
Tall and handsome men
generally give off the impression that they are easily credible and intelligent.
The Diallo shooting was nothing more than a few cops jumping to the conclusion that a man was armed, sticking their nose where they were never needed. They made unsupported assumptions from the moment the cop questioned Diallo's reason of being outside, making a snap judgement that it might be a push-in robbery or assuming he was being brazen when their cop car parked in front of him. The cops did three fatal mistake:
1. They spotted him and decided he looked suspicious. He was just taking in the night.
2. They assumed he was brazen because he didn't run at the sight of the police. He wasn't brazen, he was curious.
3. When Diallo ran towards the door while reaching for his pocket, they assumed he was dangerous. He was not armed,it was his
M. Gladwell establishes a brilliant explanation to the way our minds work. Along the way helping us answer the questions: When should we and shouldn't use our unconscious thinking? and what do we trust more, gut instinct or facts?
We make decisions based on stereotypical means and judgment and ironically we allow someone with less information to prevail. When we put asside the pression of the first two seconds: "they saw her for who she really was.” (254)
1) Q: Which rhetorical appeal (ethos, pathos or logos) does Malcolm Gladwell mostly show in the Conclusion of "Blink." Why?
2) Q: Do you feel that Abbie Conant was "performing" for something other than the spot in the orchestra. Why?
Gladwell selection shows a beautiful example on page 246 to prove how the philharmonics music director is to emphasize the inequality of woman musicians to men. He also uses rhetorical questions like “No one pain attention to how auditions were held...what did it matter? Music was music.” (249)
HI THERE PEOPLE .
ITS OVER NOW
the feeling that a person or a thing is beneath consideration, worthless, or deserving scorn.
Student asked to identify their race. this was enough to cause all negative stereotypes. the number of things he got right compared to before was cut by half.
The Love Lab
Marriage and Morse Code
3. The Importance of Contempt
Focuses on the research of psychologist John Gottman.
-Can determine the certainty of how long a marriage may last with an accuracy of 90% by observing couples for 15 minutes or less.
-He studies the couples' body language.
-His main contribution is the idea that humans do not need to know a great deal about someone else to determine that person's personality.
4. The Secrets of the Bedroom
-Dorm room experiment
5. Listening to Doctors
- Sueing doctors
6. The Power of the Glance
- Tom Hanks
Too much information can lead to over processing and making the wrong decisions and leave you in confusion
Is it worth preparing for the unpredictable, is it possible to be actually ready for hard rapid-fire decisions?
Van Riper believed that complex strategic planning was useless during war because there were to many unpredictable aspects to take into account.
These snap decisions take place behind a locked door, these people need to respect the fact that it is possible to know without knowing why we know and that it is better off that way.
Paul Van Ripper’s Big Victory: Creating Structure for Spontaneity
• The opposing side of thin-slicing, a plethora of information, can create a dilemma.
• Gladwell introduces us to Paul Van Riper, a retired Marine commander.
• He also took a scenario of a doctor, choosing whether to operate a patient or not who is suffering from heart attack- based on decision tree.
“And if you are given too many choices, if you are forced to consider much more than your unconscious is comfortable with, you get paralyzed. Snap judgments can be made in a snap because they are frugal, and if we want to protect our snap judgments, we have to take steps to protect that frugality.”
Chapter 4-A Crisis in the ER
Solution 1-The doctors at Cook County ER in Chicago were overwhelmed with the number of patients complaining of chest pains.
2-To make matters worse, the doctors had trouble diagnosing the patients because they were stuck considering a wide variety of information like health history, ECB readings, blood pressure and more.
3- The process required doctors to only use a few defined symptoms in their analysis including the patients family tree history if any had heart problems before, treating the patients increased the doctor’s accuracy by 70 percent. Needless to say it was a very imprecise system.
Ch. 4, Part 5-When Less Is More
1-The Cook County experiment shows that the presence of more information does not lead to better decisions. All of the extra information – health history, ECG, etc. – does occasionally help, but more often than not it complicates things. This is what happened to Blue Team in Millennium Challenge.
2-Overwhelming information gives a situation or a surrounding unable to make rational or accurate decision.
3-Gladwell says that there are two important lessons here:
A. Good decision making requires a balance between thoughtful and instinctive thinking.
B. Frugality matters when making good decisions. Sometimes less is more and better.
4-Gladwell goes on to say that a good decision maker is able to edit. “If you get too caught up in the production of information, you drown in the data." that extra information is more than useless. It’s harmful. It confuses the issues. What screws up doctors when they are trying to predict heart attacks is that they take too much information into account..
Museum's purchase of a statue that turned out to be a forgery. The Getty was approached by an art dealer in 1983 who claimed to have a sixth century B.C. Greek statue for sale—a kouros. Although officials at the museum were somewhat suspicious initially, they decided to purchase the statue after a 14-month investigation.
Thin slicing: observing details about someone or something in order to form a larger opinion.
1. Fast and Frugal
Imagine that I were to ask you to play a very simple gambling game. In front of you there is a blue deck of card and a red deck of card. Each card in those 2 decks either wins you a sum of money or costs you some money, and your job is to turn over cards from any
of the decks, one at a time, in such a way that maximizes your winnings.
What you don't know is that the red deck of card is a minefield. The rewards are high but when you lose, you lose a lot.
Actually, you can win only by picking blue cards. So how much time will it take you to realize it?
A study shows that we kind of get a hunch of what's going on after picking 50 cards and after 80 cards we figured it out.
But in reality our subconsciousness figured it out after only 10 cards!
This is the reason why sampling methods aren't 100% accurate. Two main reasons come out:
They aren't representative of the real experience (Coke)
They are based on what has worked, which means that some things which are different do bad on these tests (Chair, Kenna)
People's first impressions of products or services are often biased by the history they have with the product or service. For example, when a new product comes out, the general public, who have no history with the product, cannot imagine a future with the product. However, people who are experts in the domain will understand the point of the product and will have different first impressions, if compared with consumers in general.
This chapter mentions about how a
one person can misjudge someone
so rapidly, before trying to find out
what the other person is thinking or
feeling. Even by taking a second to
look at their face or into their
eyes you can tell what the other
person is feeling. By taking a second
you can save someone's life or make
a scenario less chaotic.