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Forecasting: Yankee Fork and Hoe Company

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by

S.R. Schimmel

on 14 January 2014

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Transcript of Forecasting: Yankee Fork and Hoe Company

Charts
Yankee Fork and Hoe Company
Yankee Fork and Hoe Company
A leading producer of garden tools ranging from wheelbarrows, mortar pans, and hand trucks to shovels, rakes, and trowels.
The company’s tools are sold in four different product lines ranging from top-of-the-line to economy
Forecasting Round 1
Basics
Marketing Managers meet up once a year
Use "Shipment Data" and adjust it to forecast for next year
Send the forecast to production, where it is arbitrarily reduced by 10% or so
Steven Schimmel
Calculation
Weighted monthly average =(((D1*4)+(C1*3)+(B1*2)+(A1))/10)
Results
Analyzed by:
No record of past forecasts
Is there a mechanism for collaboration between departments?
What methods does the company employ for inventory control? What are its safety stock levels, etc?
Recommendations
No Formal Demand Forecasting Method
Inventory Control & Capacity Utilization
Operational Management Problems- Bow Rake
Forecating (by month one year in advance) handled by marketing-known to inflate
The departments (marketing and production) do not collaborate on forecasting
1 month warning for demand
Forecasting based on shipping data from several regional managers, discuss promos, economy, and past data
RESULTED IN LATE SHIPMENTS
The cost of storing the steel needed to make the
Some processes like 'forging' are used excessively when demand rises / needed for other products
Keep minimum inventory on hand
Switch to more calculated forecast
More communication among departments, more frequent meetings
Market-Extremely competitive and mature
Essential to maintain low prices while retaining quality and dependability
Must keep ahead of competition
Key People
Alan Roberts -President
Phil Stanton- Mystery man
Ron Adams-Marketing Manager
Sharon Place-Consultant

5.72%
Key Issues
((y2/y1)+2(y3/y2)+3(y4/y3))/6
(Not so good)
much better.
H=(E*1.0572)
G=D/F
Full transcript