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China and Russia: A case Study

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Megan Hill

on 25 November 2013

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Transcript of China and Russia: A case Study

Russia and China: A Case Study
Basic Information: China
Population: 1.343 billion
Land size: 9,596,960 square km (4th)
Total GDP: $10.09 trillion (2nd)
GDP per Capita $7,600 (125th)
Human development index rating: 91st

Regime transition in China
Political, Cultural, Economic History of China
Political History
Regime Transition: Russia
Political, Cultural, Economic History: Russia
Economics
1998 debt default/ crisis
Effect on oil
Insider privatization
WTO 2012
Cultural
Caucasus clashes
2003
2005
2008: South Ossetia War

Basic Information: Russia
Official Name: Russian Federation
Total Area Size: 17,098,240 km2 (largest state on Earth)
Population: 143 Million (9th largest)
GDP (PPP): $2.0 Trillion (6th largest)
GDP (Per Capita): $14,037 (44th largest)


Russian Empire
(1721-1917)
Absolute monarchy rule until 1905
Russo-Japanese War
Establishment of Duma
Constitutional monarchy until 1917
World War I
February Revolution


Czar Nicholas II
Economic History
Russian Republic
(1917)
Russian Provision Government
Shared power with Petrograd Soviet
Continued participation in WWI
October Revolution (Bolshevik Revolution)

Jiang Zemin (1993-2003)
Xi Jinping (2013-2023)
Hu Jintao (2003-2013)
Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic
(1917-1993)
Council of People's Commissars
First Chairman: Vladimir Lenin
Autonomous republic until 1922
Formation of Soviet Union
One of 15 republics that comprised the Soviet Union
Collapse of Soviet Union
Bo Xilai Case
Sentenced to life time in jail for embezzlement, corruption, and abuse of power
Russian Federation
(1990-Present)
Named in 1990
Federation and semi-presidential republic
Succeeded Soviet Union in foreign relations
Two important people: Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin
Cultural History
Beijing Olympics, 2008
Three Gorges Dam, 2006
60th Anniversary of the Communist Party, 2009
Yang Liwei , 2003
2001
2007
2010
2001: China joins the World Trade Organization (WTO)
2010: China surpasses Japan to become the world's second largest economy
Drove down prices in manufactured goods
Spike in commodity prices
Pressures to reevaluate the Yuan
2007: China posts a 17.7% increase in exports
Overtakes Germany as the world's leading exporter
Expected to be largest economy by 2022
Electoral History
Presidential
Two- round elections every 6 years (recent change)
Two consecutive term constitutional limit
No requirements for the president associate with a party
Majority needed
2000: Vladimir Putin
2004: Vladimir Putin
2008: Dmitry Medvedev
2012: Vladimir Putin
2018
Duma
450 seats elected every 5 years (recent change)
Proportional representation (7% threshold)
2003
2007
2011
Political Parties
United Russia
Communist Party of Russia
Liberal Democratic Party Russia
A Just Russia
Yabloko (United Democratic Party)
Right Cause

Political History

2004: Putin changes direct election of regional governors to a Kremlin- appointed system

2007: St. Petersburg Protests

2008: Parliamentary vote changes term lengths

2011: Highly contentious Duma elections

2012: Putin regains power
2003 October - Billionnaire Yukos oil boss Mikhail Khodorkovsky arrested and held in custody
Pre-Civil War
Rival Theories
Our Question:


“What can account for the current stability of Russia and China’s authoritarian regimes?”


DV:
stability of the authoritarian state, defined as the lack of regime transition and of significant political dissent over the past twenty years
Authoritarian History
Cultural Uniformity
IV ?
Geopolitical Norms
Education Levels
At least 100,000 casualties
Unknown number of Boxers killed
Boxer Rebellion
Primary Theory
Media Control
Non-tax Government Wealth
Qing Dynasty
Xinhai Revolution
Future of Democratization?
Different paths to democratization
China vs. Russia
Get worse before its gets better
(1911-1912)
(1899-1901)
Installed provisional government
Warlord Era
Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) leads China
(1916-1928)
http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/international/2012/05/04/exp-amanpour-imagine-a-world.cnn.html
Russia:
9 out of the top 10 most viewed TV channels controlled by Russian government
Most influential and most widely read newspapers are state-owned/controlled
Suppression of damaging news/ opposition views
Rival Theories
China's and Russia's history has been dominated by authoritarian rulers and therefore both countries are more likely to remain undemocratic.
China's Imperial Rule (221 B.C. - 1911) followed by the Communist take over (1949 - present).
Tsarist autocracy since 12th century, Soviet Rule, and Russian Federation.
Lateness of their socioeconomic development contributed to their authoritarianism
Case of Republic of China.
1.) Reduced accountability to the citizenry
2.) Funding for security apparatus
Ability to suppress and preclude dissent
Authoritarian Regime Stability
Government Wealth through non tax revenue
Political Structure
China:
Chinese Central Television (state-owned) is the largest TV network in China
Local Communist Party daily newspaper in every city controlled by government
Over 1,000 state-owned radio stations
Restricts flow of foreign news into the country/people's access to it
"Great Firewall of China"
Intimidation
Lukes' dimensions of power



Intimidation
Lukes' dimensions of power
Broadening of the rentier affect (Ross)
Russia: wealth from oil
China: agriculture, land ownership, industry
Average income taxes: 10% and 13%
13% and 10.4% of total GDP
Communist Party: Largest political party in the world with over 73 million members
Politburo: the bulk of China's major decisions are proposed and ratified by the 24 member Politburo - of which nine form an ultimate standing committee
National People's Congress: Legislative branch of government. Possess no significant power but serves assymbolic representation. 2987 total seats.
Reduced accountability:
Fewer taxes= lessened demand to change the status quo
Government feels less accountable
Those in control of business incentivized to remain loyal
CCP appoints 81 percent of the chief executives of state-owned enterprises and 56 percent of all senior corporate executives
Siloviki

Funding for the Security Apparatus
Behind the U.S, China and Russia are the highest spenders on state military in the world
Tiananmen Square, South Ossetia War
Political Parties: Communist Party of China (72% of seats). 28% of remaining seats belong to eight minor parties under the Communist party control.
The greater the cultural, ethnic, and religious uniformity in a country, the more stable it will be.
Both China's and Russia's respective populations are homogenous.
80% of the Russian population is Russian and 91% of the Chinese population is Han Chinese.
Both countries are predominately atheists.
However: Rebellions in the Northern Caucasus in Russian and Tibetan independent uprisings in China.
Case of the US.
Chiang Kai-shek reunited China with Northern Expedition
Chinese Civil War
(1927-1950)
Fighting occurred intermittently, until China united during WWII
Communists overwhelm KMT after WWII
Post-Civil War
Communist forces led by Mao Zedong conquer mainland, KMT retreat to Taiwan
Significant Events
Cultural Revolution
Great Leap Forward
18-32 million casualties
Do the surrounding government types significantly influence Russia and China's authoritarianism?
Conflicting neighbor governments
(So, no)
Large size disparities
Do low education levels permit authoritarianism's survival?
(Surprise! No)
Full transcript