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50+1 Wyoming

This is a quick overview of a program I am putting together
by

Bob Vernon-Kubichek

on 2 December 2012

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Transcript of 50+1 Wyoming

50+1
Wyoming Turnout Election #2 Turnout Election #1 Turnout Election #3 + + 3 = Expected Turnout We determine the expected voter turnout for the upcoming election based on past election turnout averages. (Expected Turnout) * (50%) + 1 = WIN NUMBER The expected turnout x 50% +1 gives us the number of votes we need to win, or the “win number”. Utilizing DNC voter behavior modeling scores we determine how many voters fall into each of the categories above. GOTV Bucket These are votes you have, you just need to make sure these people vote. We will get back to them in a moment Persuasion
Bucket These are votes we do not know we have. We will spend the persuasion phase of the campaign talking to these people. Lets Look at a real world Example. HD 46 in Albany County WIN Number - GOTV Bucket = Number of Persuadable
Voters We need to ID Now we can figure out how many Voters we need to persuade. Midterm Win Number = 1,999 Votes GOTV Bucket Votes we know we have: 1,190 Votes we know we have
but we need to focus our
GOTV efforts on to make
sure they vote: 624 TOTAL = 1,814 GOTV Bucket
1,814 Votes 1,999 Votes - = 185 Votes Needed to Persuade Persuasion Bucket Votes we are going to
spend the majority of
our time focused on
getting: 502 High Persuasion Target Votes Needed to Persuade: 185 High Persuasion Target: 502 = Percent Needed to Persuade: %37 Now we need to figure out how much Capacity we need to talk to the High Persuasion Target Obviously in some races we would need to dig into the mid persuasion target. For this example we do not need to. The only difference is that it would add another step. *Note* To be safe lets hit at least 500 of these people. Nice round number and its pretty small. Also, lets be conservative and say only 65% will actually support our candidate How Many Persuadable Votes We Need: 185 Supporter ID Goal: 235 Turnout of Target: ____________________%80
Support Rate: _________________________%65
Contact Rate Canvass: __________________%25
Number of conversations with each Voter: 2
We will be talking to them by canvassing
Door Knocks Per Shift: __________________30 Assumptions: Contact Goal: 710 Number of Attempts Needed to Hit Contact Goal: 2,838 Number of Volunteer Shifts Needed to Reach Goal: 95 This is for the Persuasion Phase of the Campaign where we ID Supporters by canvassing them Now we need to figure out how much volunteer capacity we need for the GOTV Phase of the Campaign ID Supporters in High Persuasion Target Goal: 235

Supporters in High GOTV Target : 624 Total High GOTV Targets: 859 GOTV PLAN Strategy: Push Early Vote for all of our High GOTV Targets. This means starting GOTV operations 40 Days before election day. Tactics:
Get "Commit to Early Vote" from at least %75 GOTV Targets.
Talk to entire High GOTV Targets 3 times during EV.
Canvassing: 2 Times
Phone: 1 Time Lists will be updated daily during early vote so people who vote will be removed from the GOTV List. GOTV Early Vote Volunteer Capacity Needs Total High GOTV Targets: 859 Phone Contact: 1 Attempts Needed: (859 Voters) x (%20 Contact Rate) = 4,295
Attempts Per Shift: 60
Total Shifts Needed: 4,295 / 60 = 72 Canvass Contacts: 2 Attempts Needed: (859 Voters) x (%25 Contact Rate) x (2) = 6,872
Attempts Per Shift: 30
Total Shifts Needed: 6,872 / 30 = 229 Paid Canvasser Calculations Rather then spending money on mail, lets allocate resources to some paid canvassers. This will decrease the amount of volunteer shifts we need to recruit Let's go with %75 of shifts for canvassing by paid canvassers. This is just an example, but because canvassing is so important, paying people is helpful because you get grantee the doors will actually get done. Cost Calculation

(229 Shifts) x %75 = 172 Shifts

(172 Shifts) x $10 per hour = $1,720

Vol Shifts to Recruit: 57 If you go with the paid canvass at %75 Vol Shifts Needed = 57 Remember, you have all summer to do this! Persuasion Phase Persuasion Canvass Contact **NOTE: We could also add a phone contact to the mix as well. Because it is a small persuasion universe we will stick for canvass only until GOTV** GOTV Phase 50+1 Wyoming will focus on building volunteer teams capable of handling this capacity How to Plan a Campaign Persuasion Phase During the Persuasion Phase we
focus on talking to our persuadable
voters. We want to talk to them at least 2 Times
in person.

You have to factor in the contact rate, number of
doors per shift, and number of volunteers needed
to hit your contact goal. (Explained in Example) During the Get Out the Vote Phase
We Make Sure all of Our Voters Vote Get Out The Vote Phase Get "Commit to Early Vote" from at least %75 GOTV Targets.
Talk to entire High GOTV Targets 3 times during EV.
Canvassing: 2 Times
Phone: 1 Time

Once Early Vote starts we check with the county clerk EVERY DAY to see which of Our Voters have Voted.
Once they have voted we remove them from our GOTV List Election Day GOTV The goal is to have AT LEAST %75 of our voters done
voting by election day. Ideally it would be more.

(%25) x 859 GOTV Targets = 215 Voters

So we will need to make sure all 215 voters vote by the end of the day. We knock on their doors: (215 Voters) x (%25 Contact Rate) = 860 Attempts
860 attempts / 30 Doors Per Shift = 29 Shifts

We call them: (215 Voters) x (%20 Contact Rate) = 1,075 Attempts
1,075 Attempts / 60 Calls Per Shift = 18 Shifts Total Shifts Needed: 47 Total Campaign Shift Needs Persuasion Shifts Canvass: 95 Early Vote GOTV

Canvass Shifts: 57
Phone Shifts: 72

Election Day GOTV

Door Shifts: 29
Phone Shifts: 18 Total Canvass: 196
Total Phone: 90 If 75% Canvass Shifts Paid:
(147 Shifts) x ($10 Shift) = $1,470 Total Volunteer Canvass Shifts Needed: 49

Total Volunteer Phone Shifts Needed: 90

Total Combined Shifts Needed: 139

That is a very doable number! Volunteer Recruitment Calculator Goal: 193 Shifts Assumptions Commitment Rate: %15
Contact Rate: %20
Flake Rate: 30%
Calls Per Shift: 60
Given 15% of the people you talk to will commit to coming, you need to contact 1,833 people to schedule 193 shifts.

With a %20 contact rate, it will take 9,167 attempts to contact 1,833 people

9,167/60 Calls Per Shift = 153 Call Shifts Calculations At the end of the day it is all pretty easy!

It takes a LOT of time, and some money if you have it.

But this is not rocket science

Believe me I am not that smart
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