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Will Silicon Valley Disrupt Detroit?
Transcript of Will Silicon Valley Disrupt Detroit?
A discussion about the future of cars
July 12th 2013, JayWSalon at Innospring, CA
Why do people need Cars?
From Basic needs to more advanced needs.
Problem -> Solution -> New Problem -> New Solution...
The evolution of automobile
The construction of a modern car
some facts and numbers
1000 to 2000
Number of parts on assembly line
60 to 100
Number of cars produced per hour at efficient plants
Average time to manufacture a car at an OEM factory
18 to 24 month
The time to develop and produce a new car
Number of motor vehicles globally in 2011
Annual Production of Cars in China 2012
1 : 9
One employment at the OEM will create nine jobs along the whole industry value chain
Automobile is among the best platforms for technology and business innovation.
1 : 1.1
Car sales price vs. expense spend after purchase
The Next Step?
Infotainment & Telematics
Intelligent Transportation System(ITS)
Passenger cars per 1,000 people
Alternative Energy Powertrain
Intelligent Driving system
Connected Car Network
Other Technology innovation from various industry
IT technology (Mobile internet)
Business Model Innovation
User Case Scenarios
What is the Jobs-to-be-done of customers?
Sustainable, Clean, Efficient, Convenient, Affordable
Electric Vehicles (EV)
Compress Natural Gas(CNG)
Other Possible Variants
GM EV1 1996
Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)
Tesla Model S 2012
Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV)
Fuel-Cell City Bus
Chevy Volt (Series Hybrid)
Toyota Pruis (Series-Parallel Hybrid)
Nissan Leaf 2011
An electric vehicle (EV) uses one or more electric motors or traction motors for propulsion.
Intuitive, Safe, Efficient
(ACC, Parking Assistance, Auto Breaking, etc.)
Drive by Wire (non-mechanical)
Udacity CEO Sebastian Thrun discusses Google's driverless car project
When will Electric Vehicles Thrive?
Performance compare to ICE
Convenience of use
Charging time (Swap?)
Cost of ownership
Price of Oil and Gas
Motor Trend Test Drive of Tesla Model S
-- The Quickest Sedan Built in America
What will be the business case?
When will the technology 100% reliable?
Will you buy a drive-less Car? Why?
What kind of jobs-to-be-done can this technology fulfill?
Any legal and moral risks?
How much will it cost?
Nonetheless , it definitely has unimaginable potentials to change the way people transport.
Barriers for EV
Connected Car Network
Intelligent Transportation System
Interaction between your car and the outside world
Wireless vehicle safety communications
Emergency warning system for vehicles
Intelligent vehicle technologies
Integration with ITS
Telecommunication + Informatics
The fight for the in-car screens
What should be the best solution for end user?
How would different stake holders react?
Key Criteria: Safe, intuitive, comfort
Integrate with smart phone
GM OnStar / BMW Connected Drive
iOS 7/ Android
Mobile internet opportunities in Auto space
Challenges for Auto OEM and Tech Companies
P2P Sharing & Rental
What's the opportunities for start-ups?
Very different culture and process
Each has strong vested interests
High barriers of entry
The next wave of new ventures will come from
that can successfully combine
Automobile is just one space among them.
Good product, but Poor business
Low End Disruption?
New Market Disruption?