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Rogeaulito <3

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The Shift Project

on 22 April 2013

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Transcript of Rogeaulito <3

Supply Energy Sector Induced
Demand KAYA Identity Demand Demand
by sector 𝑡𝑜𝑒 Buildings Consumption
toe/cap Industry Consumption
toe/cap Building
Sector
toe/cap Residential
Subsector
consumption
toe/cap Tertiary
Subsector
consumption
toe/cap
Unitary residential consumption
[KWh/m2] Physical
description Area of residential
stock per capita
[m2/cap] Area of tertiaty
stock per capita
[m2/cap] Unitary tertiary
consumption
[KWh/m2] Subsector Global
Demand Others & non-energy uses
10.6% Agriculture & Fishing 2% Transportation
27.4% Industry
27.3% Buildings
32.7% KAYA SECTOR Industry
Sector
toe/cap Physical
description Subsector Sector KAYA SECTOR TransportationConsumption
toe/cap Physical
description Subsector KAYA SECTOR Sector Agriculture and fishing
toe/cap KAYA SECTOR Industry
Sector
toe/cap Physical
description Subsector Sector gfhfghfgh gfhfghfgh Installed Capacity Nuclear Renewables Others Renewables only Elec. Renewables others Nuclear Conventional Unconventional Wind Onshore Wind Offshore Solar PV Solar CSP Hydro Others Forest Waste (Renewable) Solar thermal Geothermal Load Factor Installed Capacity Load Factor Load Factor Load Factor Installed Capacity Load Factor Area Yield Installed Capacity Load Factor Installed Capacity Load Factor GTL Investment cost: 30 to 50KUS$/BPD
CTL Investment cost: 80 to 125KUS$/BPD Source IFP: Le GTL : perspectives de développement 2006
Morales Miguel. Economics of secondary energy from GTL regarding natural gasreserves of Bolivia. 2007 Source World CTL 2012 conference
TATA-Sasol CTL plant India Oil Nuclear 3G Nuclear 4G ? Other Non Renewable Industrial Waste Heat Municipal Waste Area Yield Super-primary
Biomass * (BtL Share * efficiency + BtG Share * efficiency + BtS Share * efficiency) Primary
energy
supply 𝑡𝑜𝑒 source : EWEA source : EWEA UN 2010 Revision medium variant 2009 PwC long term GDP projections. Increase of 0.026 per year Since 1973, Global energy intensity has improved in an average rate of 1.7% a year. Source IEA. Others & non-energy uses
toe/cap KAYA SECTOR Non-energy sector
toe/cap Sector Road Rail Water Air Other Sector Ownership/cap Average distance/veh.y Share of EVs L/km KWh/Km Passenger-km toe/ Passenger-km-cap t-km toe/ t-km-cap t.Km Share of Electric road freight toe/t.Km KWh/t.Km Physical description Sector Gas Coal Conventional Unconventional Coal 2010 production (IEA) : 83.6 Mb/d 2009 production (IEA) : 3 100 bcm 2009 production (IEA) : 4 930 Mtce + = = = + = + = + = + = Passenger-km toe/ Passenger-km-cap t-km toe/ t-km-cap Passenger-km toe/ Passenger-km-cap t-km toe/ t-km-cap Share of ICE vehicles + Share of ICE road freight + + = toe/cap Steel non-metallic,
mineral Paper
and pulp Others t/cap toe/t t/cap toe/t t/cap toe/t toe/cap = = = + = Sub-Sectors Fossil
Fuels Stories Scenarios Watabout ?
OECD buildings standard of living worldwide Watabout ?
Exponential growth of aviation trafic 1 - Reference case : - Aircraft manufacturer "forecasts"

- Kerozene & Diesel fuels are obtained from the same refinery products fraction

- inspiring demand/supply confrontation Watabout?
A major switch to electrical vehicles IEA 2007 Tracking Industrial Energy Efficiency and CO2 emissions OPEC World Oil Outlook 2009 Nygren, Aleklett, Höök 2009, Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios Boeing and Airbus passengers trafic scenarios IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 Campbell Robelius Nygren, Aleklett, Höök 2009, Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios Aviation fuel
=
Global Oil Production
x
fixed 6,3% share Crops Primary
Biomass Installed Capacity Installed Capacity Installed Capacity 2010 orders of magnitude (world average) :
- 20m2/cap residential
--> 150kWh/m2 (final)
- 10m2/cap tertiary
--> Energy sector (conversion) Transparent Energy Scenario Thinking logistic curves logistic curves logistic curves 2 - Fit the demand / Fit the supply Transportation
Sector
toe/cap A&F
Sector
toe/cap Technical limit 1.6 to 10.7 Gtoe/y Technical limit 0.3 to 3 Gtoe/y Technical limit 32 to 353 Gtoe/y Technical limit 6 to 258 Gtoe/y Technical limit 1 to 1.2 Gtoe/y Technical limit 0.9 to 1.4 Gtoe/y Investment cost Physical limits IEA. Transport, energy and CO2. 2009 Average area for 1990 was 14.4m2/cap and according to WBCSD for 2006 it was 23.6 m2/cap. According to WBCSD the average area for 2006 was 11.35m2/cap. 1,2 Billion tons produced in 2009 3,1Billion tons produced in 2009 Medium supply design Fossil fuel Nuclear Renewables 377 Million tons produced in 2009 Pessimistic Hybrid Model
Energy/Economy Idealistic Rogeaulito
Energy "rules of thumb" 125 veh/1000 cap average IEA, WEO 2008 Demand/Price
Elasticities economic
agents
behaviour technologies competition Computable General Equilibrium
(Macroeconomics) Mazda CX-9 14.7 L/100Km Supply drivers Demand
drivers Supply Demand Smart 3.3 L/100Km + x 20 KWh/100 km Economic representation of the energy system Why Rogeaulito ? 2.7 trillion passenger-Km in 2009 "Cursors" = our transparency Graal Parameter name Unit Shape 4.7 Trillion passenger-Km in 2009 Agriculture Agriculture Fishing Fishing + Equation = Historical data Scenario Les objets sont-ils vraiment plus économes ? La 2CV de 1950 : 375 cm3 de cylindrée, 9 CV de puissance, 60 km/h, 500 kg, 4,5 litres aux 100 La C3 de 2008 (diesel) : 1.400 cm3 de cylindrée, 70 CV de puissance, 160 km/h, 1.000 kg, 5 à 6 litres aux 100 Economies ? 4 fois moins de carburant consommé par cm3 de cylindrée 2,5 fois moins de carburant consommé par km/h de vitesse maximale 7 fois moins de carburant consommé par CV de puissance nominale 2 fois moins de carburant consommé par kg de masse Mais… consommation par objet qui n’a pas diminué Parameters KAYA Identity Global
Demand Demand
by sector 𝑡𝑜𝑒 Buildings Consumption
toe/cap Industry Consumption
toe/cap Building
Sector
toe/cap Residential
Subsector
consumption
toe/cap Tertiary
Subsector
consumption
toe/cap
Unitary residential consumption
[KWh/m2] Physical
description Area of residential
stock per capita
[m2/cap] Area of tertiaty
stock per capita
[m2/cap] Unitary tertiary
consumption
[KWh/m2] Subsector Others & non-energy uses
10.6% Agriculture & Fishing 2% Transportation
27.4% Industry
27.3% Buildings
32.7% KAYA SECTOR Industry
Sector
toe/cap Physical
description Subsector Sector KAYA SECTOR TransportationConsumption
toe/cap Physical
description Subsector KAYA SECTOR Sector Agriculture and fishing
toe/cap KAYA SECTOR Physical
description Subsector Sector UN 2010 Revision medium variant 2009 PwC long term GDP projections. Increase of 0.026 per year Since 1973, Global energy intensity has improved in an average rate of 1.7% a year. Source IEA. Others & non-energy uses
toe/cap KAYA SECTOR Non-energy sector
toe/cap Sector Road Rail Water Air Other Sector Ownership/cap Average distance/veh Share of EVs L/km KWh/Km Passenger-km toe/ Passenger-km-cap t-km toe/ t-km-cap t.Km Share of Electric road freight toe/t.Km KWh/t.Km + = + = + = + = + = + = + = Passenger-km toe/ Passenger-km-cap t-km toe/ t-km-cap Passenger-km toe/ Passenger-km-cap t-km toe/ t-km-cap Share of ICE vehicles + Share of ICE road freight + + = toe/cap Steel non-metallic,
mineral Paper
and pulp Others t/cap toe/t t/cap toe/t t/cap toe/t toe/cap = = = + = IEA 2007 Tracking Industrial Energy Efficiency and CO2 emissions OPEC World Oil Outlook 2009 UN 2010 Revision medium variant Population Transportation
Sector
toe/cap A&F
Sector
toe/cap IEA. Transport, energy and CO2. 2009 Average area for 1990 was 14.4m2/cap and according to WBCSD for 2006 it was 23.6 m2/cap. According to WBCSD the average area for 2006 was 11.35m2/cap. 1,2 Billion tons produced in 2009 3,1Billion tons produced in 2009 377 Million tons produced in 2009 125 veh/1000 cap average Mazda CX-9 14.7 L/100Km Smart 3.3 L/100Km 20 KWh/100 km 2.7 trillion passenger-Km in 2009 4.7 Trillion passenger-Km in 2009 Agriculture Agriculture Fishing Fishing + = Les objets sont-ils vraiment plus économes ? La 2CV de 1950 : 375 cm3 de cylindrée, 9 CV de puissance, 60 km/h, 500 kg, 4,5 litres aux 100 La C3 de 2008 (diesel) : 1.400 cm3 de cylindrée, 70 CV de puissance, 160 km/h, 1.000 kg, 5 à 6 litres aux 100 Economies ? 4 fois moins de carburant consommé par cm3 de cylindrée 2,5 fois moins de carburant consommé par km/h de vitesse maximale 7 fois moins de carburant consommé par CV de puissance nominale 2 fois moins de carburant consommé par kg de masse Mais… consommation par objet qui n’a pas diminué 3 - Example of Rogeaulito's approach: 2009 : 8 000 TWh 2100 : 16 000 TWh x 2 TSP, adapted from IEA TSP, adapted from IEA trend TSP, adapted from IEA - Bluemap scenario How much more oil reserves to cancel the oil MES ? Max reserves = 6500 Gb Not enough !!! Max reserves + CTL = 7500 Gb Ok Oil MES = 6 Gtoe/year
in 2100 IEA - Bluemap 2050 How much less energy consumption per capita to cancel the oil MES ? Need -35% compared to 2009 levels What does it mean for cars for example? Car energy use =
Ownership x average distance x fuel consumption car / 1000 cap km/ year.car l/100km 2009 125 15 000 11 21OO trend 350 200 15 000 15 000 15 000 21OO FTS 1 21OO FTS 2 5 2,5 350 5 CO2 eq emissions Trend Demand × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × Unit consumption Rogealito objectives/features Systemic tradeoffs
Off-market system regulation
... Physical limits Power density Land use Efficiency Load factor Installed Capacity Power density Land use Power density Land use Land use Land use Power density Land use Power density Land use Uranium stocks NEA/IAEA Classification Scheme for Conventional Uranium Resources (2009)* Decreasing certainty in estimates Decreasing degree of economic feasibility * Uranium 2009: Resources, Production and Demand, A Joint Report by the OECD NEA and the IAEA 2010 The global technical potential of bio-energy in 2050 considering
sustainability constraints
Helmut Haberl, Tim Beringer, Sribas C Bhattacharya, Karl-Heinz Erb and Monique Hoogwijk The global technical potential of bio-energy in 2050 considering
sustainability constraints
Helmut Haberl, Tim Beringer, Sribas C Bhattacharya, Karl-Heinz Erb and Monique Hoogwijk SRREN Concentration/temperature
rule of thumb Step 1
Reference case Step 2
Switch 80% of
the vehicles
to electricity Step 3
Reallocation:
coal to electricity Step 4
More renewables
for the supply Fossils medium reserves = cumulated production + proven reserves + 55% of resources.
Half blue map for renewables.
1% increase of nuclear every year compared to 2009 levels Population Energy mix UN 2010 Revision medium variant Cursors
setting 1 2 3 From Transport energy and CO2, IEA 2009
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