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NLA - London Enterprise Panel

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by

christopher choa

on 12 December 2014

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Transcript of NLA - London Enterprise Panel

global london
issues
prospects
context
GLOBAL POPULATION
2010 6.9 billion
2020 7.9 billion
2030 8.2 billion
GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS
population
percentage
MIDDLE CLASS
MIDDLE CLASS
global city characteristics
/ economy
/ culture
/ infrastructure
/ governance
new york
london
tokyo
paris
hong kong
chicago
singapore
shanghai
los angeles
zurich
seoul
boston
beijing
london
new york
hong kong
paris
singapore
tokyo
shanghai
chicago
dubai
sydney
milan
beijing
toronto
singapore
frankfurt
munich
copenhagen
dusseldorf
hong kong
london
sydney
hamburg
vancouver
yokohama
paris
atlanta
new york
los angeles
sydney
toronto
london
stockholm
chicago
tokyo
berlin
paris
madrid
hong kong
seoul
/ GAWC
/ GLOBAL POWER
/ INFRASTRUCTURE
/ iPHONE
/ INNOVATION
London

alpha ++
(along with New York City...)
population growth figures
don't tell you about:
/ skills
/ education
/ productivity

what are shifts in 'middle-class' population?
look for:

/ composition of jobs (distribution and wages)
/ productivity growth (standard of living)
/ venture capital funding (proxy for future growth)
GLOBAL LONDON?

population

housing

infrastructure

London has great people...

/ 20% of UK economic output
(13% of population)
/ 65% above national average
GVA/capita
/ 40% higher per capita earning than national average
/ 4.6 million jobs
(500,000 new jobs within last decade)
/ 1 million workers/day commuting from outside Greater London
/ 54% resident workers degree level
(2.3 times national average)
/ 426,500 higher education students
(25% international)


growth/competitivity limited
by housing and infrastructure

/ 30% of Greater London jobs within 2% of land area
/ 60% higher housing costs
than national average
/ 30% deprivation
(London wards in bottom fifth IMD)
/ environmental challenges
(especially climate change)
/ infrastructure constraints
(social, transport, aviation)
/ economic imbalances
with other UK regions


Central Activity Zone (CAZ): West End to the City (Manhattan: Chelsea to Hackney)
GLA (April 2013), London Labour Market Projections
GOOD NEWS
BAD NEWS
14.2% population growth over the next decade

HOUSING DEMAND
London Council: 526,000
283,000
=
809,000

HOUSING SUPPLY
Mayor / 2020: 400,000

HOUSING DEFICIT
409,000



=

559,000 DEFICIT




Inner London: 37% of total population...
...but 50% of the total growth
(equal to Outer London)
5
3
2

7

5








6
additional population
2036: additional 1.6 million jobs (30%)
55% of growth: knowledge economy
/ 1 million new professional / managerial jobs.
/ decline in traditional sectors


strategic housing land availability assessment: 40,000/year

to meet the existing backlog
London boroughs: new home supply: 250,000
to meet population projections

10 year outlook (to 2020)
Source: http://www.planningresource.co.uk/news/1211959/800000-new-homes-needed-tackle-london-housing-crisis-say-boroughs
(115,571 new homes per year!)

social environmental transport aviation
96 million passengers/year
82
70
67
67
64
62
59
58
58
58
57
53
53
51
51
49
48
45
45
...
34

1. Atlanta (ATL)
2. Beijing (PEK)
3. London (LHR)
4. Tokyo (HND)
5. Chicago (ORD)
6. Los Angeles (LAX)
7. Paris (CDG)
8. Dallas (DFW)
9. Jakarta (CGK)
10. Dubai (DXB)
11. Frankfurt (FRA)

12. Hong Kong (HKG)
13. Denver (DEN)
14. Bangkok (BKK)
15. Singapore (SIN)
16. Amsterdam (AMS)
17. New York (JFK)
18. Guangzhou (CAN)
19. Madrid (MAD)
20. Istanbul (IST)
...
37. Newark (EWR)

2 runways
5 runways
4+ runways
5 runways

10% increase in air capacity : 2% increase in regional economy

40% value of trade travels by air (< 2% by weight)

every long-haul destination: 3000 jobs

/ more frequent
extreme weather

/ summer rainfall:
-19%
/ winter rainfall
+14%
/
10,000
homes prone to sewer flooding
/ sea level rise:
21cm
/ major storm surge:
£25bn
clean-up
F.J. Palmer / 1877.


/ potential
0.8% increase
in GDP (2013 GBP£)
/
increased capacity
on existing lines


Euston Terminal failure

3hr morning peak:
2013 27,000

2023 66,700
Crossrail 2
£15 billion

/ relieve peak underground congestion
/ integrate with network rail
9
new stations
2.5 million

sf
mixed-use development

STRENGTHS

/ identity:
leading knowledge city
finance / science / digital / creative

/ foundations:
globalized industry, R&D, academia

/ connectivity:
global air hub, rail


CHALLENGES

/ identity:
New York, Tokyo
Stockholm, Paris, Berlin
Doha, Singapore

/ social imbalances:
2025- 60% of jobs need degree-level qualifications

/ housing, social infrastructure constraints:
housing/living costs undermines attraction for workers?
where to accommodate 750,000 new knowledge jobs?
operating costs undermine new business formation




(45% today)
DEVOLUTION

Income from local taxation (i.e. not central grants):
Tokyo: 92%
Paris: 83%
Berlin: 75%
New York: 69%

London: 26%


/ more control over local revenues
council taxes, stamp duty, land tax and business rates



Source: London Finance Commission
LONDON PLAN OPPORTUNITY AREAS
knowledge economy support
/ Euston
/ Stratford
/ White City
/ Royal Oak






...with new transportation infrastructure:
/ Outer London and beyond
/ satellite towns
/ region of Southern England

Crossrail 2
HS2
new Regional Spatial Planning approach
(not currently addressed by London Government)
RESILIENCE
= vulnerabilities x adaptive capacities
Euston
AECOM

global cities
christopher.choa@aecom.com
/ climate change vulnerabilities:
coastal defense, super-sewer

/ connective rail capacity:
HS2, Crossrail 2

/ global hub connectivity:
Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam (4-runway hub)
GLOBAL LONDON
Richard Florida / The Atlantic
Loughborough University
City Mayors/UBS
boston
new york
vienna
san franscisco
paris
munich
london
copenhagen
amsterdam
seattle
toronto
los angeles
berlin
hong kong



2thinknow
City Mayors/Mercer
urbanization
+
globalization
trade + exchange
need:
/ Heathrow ?
by 2030 - 30% from 18% of population
data: deutsche bank
65%
25%
source: AECOM
source: AECOM
people are attracted to people
source: Facebook
source: www.environment-agency.gov.uk
3.5 billion

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0
...profound shift of middle class population eastwards
Full transcript