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Is Human Behavior Predictable?

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caroline burk

on 9 April 2014

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Transcript of Is Human Behavior Predictable?

Summary
Is Human Behavior Predictable?

Caroline Burkhart
4-8-14, Sociology, Mr. Pepitone, In favor
Timeline
Against
My Position
Conclusion
works cited
1993:
search for behavioral gene
The X chromosome - linked intellectual activity

1923 - 1952: Jean Piaget studies and discovers the
stages of cognitive development- children behave
differently based on age
1913:
"the behaviorist manifesto"
John Watson launched a new branch of psychology
studied children & lab rats
launched psychological school of behaviorism
focused on human behavior and how to predict it
Human behavior is 93% predictable
Spontaneous individuals are largely absent from the population
Human mobility follows surprisingly regular patterns
Expert Opinions
Facts
1. “While most individuals travel only short distances and a few regularly move over hundreds of miles, they
all follow a simple pattern
regardless of time and distance, and they have a strong tendency to return to locations they visited before,” Northeastern University Professor Albert-László Barabási.

2. “It is scientifically
possible to predict people’s movement
and positively impact how societies
address public health
and urban development” - Chaoming Song, PhD of the Center for Complex Network Research

3. "We can predict collective behaviors, this is a case in which enough people do the same thing that
individual differences don't play an important role
. The ability to choose does not play a role because the nature of the conditions are such that free will, in the sense of different choices, does not manifest itself."- Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam New England Complex Systems Institute
2010:
Northeastern University conducts human behavioral mobility experiment
headed by Albert-László Barabási
concluded human behavior is 93% predictable
Human Behavior:
"The capacity of mental, physical, emotional, and social activities experienced during the five stages of a human being's life - prenatal, infancy, childhood, adolescence, and adulthood." -business dictionary

Determining Factors:
culture, society, values, morals, ethics, and genetics

Sociological Perspective:
human behavior is predictable
people conform to norms of expected behavior
not 100% - always deviant behavior

Human behavior is predictable
patterns of repeated behavior
evidence:
Piaget's child study
Barabási's mobility experiment
discredit other side:
collective/limited
free will
disability- still predictable behavior
Future:
human behavior will continue to be predictable
there will always be outliers/
deviant
behavior
still be discrepancies
x chromosome will be researched more
Suggestions:
Facts

Everyone has different influences, affecting their behavior
Certain personalities are too complex to be predictable
Ex. Someone with a personality disorder such as bipolar disorder
Free will- we have our own behaviors, we act how we want to act
If we don’t want to coincide with the norms then we won’t
Actions are random and unpredictable; all individuals do different things
What makes people unpredictable is their creativity
Unpredictable learning styles- children behave differently while learning

Expert Opinions
focus on creativity more but decide how creativity unifies all people instead of separating
artwork, theater
1. "On the one hand, an unpredictable person can be understood to fall short of the expected standard; on the other,
unpredictability is linked to originality
, a prerequisite for
creativity
and human advancement."-Philip Liberman, Author "The Unpredictable Species: What Makes Humans Unique"

2. "It is impossible to make accurate predictions concerning behavior because of
individual differences
." -Gary A. Cziko, Author "Unpredictability and Indeterminism in Human Behavior"

3. "There are
limits on the predictablility
of human behavior within the
educational contexts
"-Gary A. Cziko, Author "Unpredictability and Indeterminism in Human Behavior"
For
Free will only goes so far
Do not think about a pink zebra in the next five seconds
free will is not absolute
cannot completely control our thought
what makes behavior predictable
Who?
scientists, people who study the brain
Who?
sociologists
"Emotional Competency - An Architecture for Human Interaction." Emotional Competency - An Architecture for Human Interaction. Web. 07 Apr. 2014. <http://www.emotionalcompetency.com/arch4interaction.htm>.

Fost, Joshua. "Predictability of Behavior." Predictability of Behavior. Web. 06 Apr. 2014. <http://joshuafost.com/blog/predictability-of-behavior/>.

Heiner, R. A. "The Origin of Predictable Behavior." The Origin of Predictable Behavior. Web. 06 Apr. 2014. <http://opus1journal.org/articles/article.asp?docID=147>.

Hoge, Kerstin. "The Unpredictable Species: What Makes Humans Unique by Philip Lieberman." Times Higher Education. Web. 07 Apr. 2014. <http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/books/the-unpredictable-species-what-makes-humans-unique-by-philip-lieberman/2003936.article>.

"Human Behavior Is 93 Percent Predictable, Research Shows | Northeastern University News." NewsNortheastern RSS. Web. 07 Apr. 2014. <http://www.northeastern.edu/news/stories/2010/02/network_science.html>.

"Human Behavior Is 93 Percent Predictable, Research Shows." Human Behavior Is 93 Percent Predictable, Research Shows. Web. 07 Apr. 2014. <http://phys.org/news186174216.html>.

"On the Role of Free Will in Predictive Models of Human BehaviorYaneer Bar-Yam." On the Role of Free Will in Predictive Models of Human Behavior. Web. 07 Apr. 2014. <http://necsi.edu/research/overview/freewill.html>.

PBS. PBS. Web. 06 Apr. 2014. <http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aso/databank/entries/dh93ge.html>.
1910s:
Ivan Petrovich Pavlov's dog experiment
began the theory of behaviorism
how humans can predict other human behavior
Human behavior has been studied for hundreds of years, and the predictability of human behavior is an ongoing phenomenon.
1977:
Study by Lee J. Cronbach & Richard Snow
Determined individual differences affect educational effectiveness and behavior
Not one way is the best for teaching every student how to read
"Probably the best-known argument for limits on predictability on human behavior."
Summary:
For
all humans follow regular behavioral patterns
free will only goes so far
Against
different influences, free will, creativity
Key terms:
social structure- patterns of social interaction, characterize human life, network of roles and statuses; guide human behavior
status: social position person has
role: expected behavior
Full transcript