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The Future of Connectedness

A presentation given originally at Social Media Camp 2014 on the Future of Connectedness and upcoming trends in technology.
by

Adrian Ebsary

on 31 August 2015

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Transcript of The Future of Connectedness

The Future of Connectedness
in the next five years
Adrian J. Ebsary (@AJEbsary)
Mobile
Hyperspecialized
Textured
Contextualized
Some predictions on
about.me/ajebsary
"Earmarked for the year 2020, features like a holographic projector (for screen), pull-out extra keyboard panels and social networking compatibility, make the concept plausible." Yanko Design
Designer: Hiromi Kiriki
http://bit.ly/1jp8hsE
Desktops could average 6.4 terabytes of disk space (6554 GB)
To each their cloud.
“By 2020, we’ll have ‘negotiating servers’ that allow devices to share ‘self-describing data.’ When two devices want to talk, they will, on their own, figure out a way to share data.”
“… it is reasonable to expect human brain capacity, at least in terms of hardware computational capacity, for one thousand dollars by around 2020.”
Scott Jenson (@ScottJenson)
in Rudy De Waele's (@mtrends) Shift 2020
Devices that talk behind our backs
“Light Peak delivers high bandwidth starting at 10Gb/s with the potential ability to scale to 100Gb/s over the next decade. At 10Gb/s, you could transfer a full-length Blu-Ray movie in less than 30 seconds.”
http://intel.ly/QXa5Ob
Mindblowing connection speeds
"Expect that the first-generation foldable e-devices will be monochrome. Color will come later."
Chris Jablonski, ZDNet
http://zd.net/1iEZ7Hz
Maybe indestructible e-Sheets by 2020?
"Imagine a cellphone battery that stayed charged for more than a week and recharged in just 15 minutes."
http://bit.ly/1fvgJ9m
http://bit.ly/1iy4Dg3
"There are over 60 different phones that have Qi wireless charging (the inductive charging standard) built in today - and 40 million of them have been sold..."
http://bit.ly/1o1nKP4
More sensors at your fingertips, in your clothing, in your body, in your neighbourhood
“Ultimately, McCarthy says, it could scan and image objects located as far as 10 kilometers away. “It is clear that the system would have to be miniaturized and ruggedized, but we believe that a lightweight, fully portable scanning depth imager is possible and could be a product in less than five years.”
http://bit.ly/1mYlNmF
CAMERAS EVERYWHERE
“Dubbed the Helius, Proteus’s “smart pill” system consists of a pinhead-sized sensor embedded in a pill, and a battery-powered patch that monitors various health indicators, such as sleep, activity, respiration, and heart rate--kind of like a Fitbit tracker on steroids.”
http://bit.ly/1m5AlB8
More ways to interact with software and online spaces
Drones and driverless cars
PATENT: COUPLING AN ELECTRONIC SKIN TATTOO TO A MOBILE COMMUNICATION DEVICE
http://1.usa.gov/1fggHS6
Siri
vs.
Cortana
vs.
Google Now
Those Tom Cruise Minority Report gloves!
Haptic Technology =
“Just 14 years after the iPhone, seven years after Google Glass and two years after Google Thought, we are spending more time in online worlds than we are in the “old” world.”
“Lien predicts the first automatic cars to be offered to the public will come out sometime between 2025 and 2030, and they will be expensive.”
“The [Federal Aviation Authority] projects that 30,000 drones could be in the nation’s skies by 2020.”
“There are rumors that Google is working with eyeglass innovator Warby Parker . Perhaps the next design will come from Parker and, down the line, shoppers will visit their local LensCrafters for a device that fits their taste, budget and self-image.”
Wearable screens and cameras will happen.
Virtual and Augmented Realities
“By the 2020s, full-immersion virtual reality will be a vast playground of compelling environments and experiences.”
Oculus Rift + Firebox
= 3D Web Browsing
+ Multiplayer Design

= 4D Web Life
“Today in the journal Nature, researchers at MIT’s Media Lab report a new approach to generating holograms that could lead to color holographic-video displays that are much cheaper to manufacture than today’s experimental, monochromatic displays.”
http://bit.ly/1mW3QHM
3D Printing Stores and Home Printing
“Enrico Dini for example, is using his prototype D-Shape printer to create buildings made of stone and eventually, moon dust. Dini claims the printer is four times faster than conventional building methods, costs one-third to one-half the price of Portland cement and creates very little waste, so it’s better for the environment.”
Internet of Things and Smart Cities
“Going forward, connected devices at home will measure the productivity of home tasks, and they will measure people’s mood by using body sensors. Analysis of all this data in aggregate will afford the opportunity to build a better understanding of how humans live in their homes and what can help them to have better, more comfortable, and more productive lives.”
“In reality, the promise of capturing and processing information in real time from various sensors around the city — transportation, pollution, waste management, energy, and so on — is very powerful. It has the potential to democratize information and give more power to citizens. And with that democratization and sharing of information and responsibility, a lot of things become possible.”
Thick data, not just big data
Privacy comes at a premium
The commodification of reputation
Personal search and databases
Biometric ID and the web passport
Near-flawless computer translation
Emergence of pseudo-AI
“Big Data delivers numbers; thick data delivers stories. Big data relies on machine learning; thick data relies on human learning.”
“Glen Allmendinger believes information brokerage is badly needed, before we agree on common standards. As we start getting inputs from gazillions of sensors, systems need a way to recognize where the information is coming from and what that information is. We need metadata.”
http://bit.ly/1iyfPJA
Tricia Wang on
Ethnography Matters
Robert Scoble and Shel Israel,
Age of Context
Ray Kurzweil,
The Singularity is Near
Ray Kurzweil,
The Singularity is Near
Christopher Winnan,
3D Printing: The Next Technology Gold Rush
Daniel Kellmereit and Daniel Obodovski,
The Silent Intelligence
Daniel Kellmereit and Daniel Obodovski,
The Silent Intelligence
"There’s only one thing, really, that distinguishes this workplace of the future from that of the past: a small, white badge."
“At every instant, we will be surveilled in our movements and activities and observed by 3D cameras and eye trackers. At consumers’ behest, these data will be combined to provide high levels of identity corroboration, to secure us against identity theft. We will willingly cede some of our privacy for that prize.”
“Suppose there were a small but real cost or penalty to encryption—perhaps an encryption tax or tariff—mere pennies on the megabyte, with a large allowance weighted in favor of small-time users, aimed at discouraging corporations or government officials from being secretive out of pure routine.”
“One’s reputation will be a precious and valuable resource enabling trust — accepted and recognised universally and opening new ways of connecting and transacting.”
“What if we were able to use [hologram technology] to beam a representation of our loved ones into our living rooms, interacting in a very lifelike way based on all the content they created while they were alive. I think that’s going to become completely possible…”
Digital immortality has cultural capital
Protect children and youth from their own data
“The problem is that these sites are not designed in ways to emphasize the potential harms to privacy and other consequences. Cyberspace is the new place to hang out, the perils of exposure notwithstanding. The pressure to fit in, to do what everybody else is doing, overrides concerns about privacy.”
“…while there should be sanctuaries on the Net for unrestrained and even outrageous speech, there must also be realms for grownups, where the unit of exchange is fact or supported argument, backed by reputation, not rumor or innuendo. Anyone attempting to enter under a pseudonym would be told, politely, that this is a territory ruled by light.”
“A new report claims that the biometrics market will be worth $23.54 billion by 2020 and have a compound annual growth rate of 17.6%. The MarketsandMarkets report analyzes fingerprint, palm, face, iris, vein, voice and signature biometric modalities between 2014 and 2020.”
“Ultimately, we want a lot more. We want online sites to know how to treat us in the same way Sam, the bartender in the old TV sitcom Cheers, treated his customers.”
“Individuals will require (and have) personal search engines — personal data will be indexed, instantly retrieved on demand. Personoogle?”
“In the next decade, we will see translating telephones that provide real-time speech translation from one human language to another, intelligent computerized personal assistants that can converse and rapidly search and understand the world’s knowledge bases, and a profusion of other machines with increasingly broad and flexible intelligence.”
“Your PCA will evolve into an anticipatory system for nearly every aspect of your life. As the technology gets better and you and your PCA spend more time together, it will understand and anticipate your wishes before you command it— by connecting disparate data dots. These actions will get more sophisticated over time, anticipating more actions and connecting data from multiple sources on an increasingly granular level.”
Not quite ‘Her’
Internet users grow to 5 billion
Less work - can we create enough jobs?
Gamified learning networks
Economies everywhere!
“To suggest that technology is going to somehow create completely new job categories capable of absorbing millions of workers displaced from traditional jobs is pure fantasy.”
“Education will be replaced by life-long learning services that will be personalised using technology that monitors comprehension and pleasure (learning should be a pleasurable experience!). Learning services credentials will become essential to add to formal qualifications. People will be expected to update their knowledge regularly and to contribute to the global brain.”
“We currently have a Push mechanism for education. We gather kids into a classroom and try to shove algebra into them. By 2020, this will have transformed into a Pull mechanism where someone will pull down a module of learning for a customized curriculum or for a project. The world is changing too fast for us to predict what we should be teaching, so education will become an on-demand service (EAAS).”
How will we solve the issue of job displacement by machines?
“The emergence of alternative currencies brings the power to manage our economic interactions into people’s hands and away from the dictates of central banks and governments. Because the creation and successful circulation of currencies requires a social contract, as I mentioned earlier, groups designing virtual currency platforms are not only enabling the creation of currencies, they are also designing social norms that facilitate the earning and circulation of these currencies. In short, they are designing new types of social and economic interactions.”
“Guaranteed minimum incomes in one country after another as machines displace most of the human job market.”
“We may lose as much as 25% of all ‘simple’ jobs because of smart machines, AI, robotics and automation, e.g., data input clerks, analysts (some), check-out clerks, cab drivers, etc. In the next 25 years, that loss may be as much as 50% of all jobs as ‘machines’ get even better. As a result we may see countries (or states/ cities) that implement a minimum guaranteed income for each resident, regardless of employment status, and we will certainly see a new definition of GDP as a result, as well (maybe even ‘gross national well-being’).”
“If not everyone is needed to produce the goods and services that the world needs, then what is everyone else supposed to do?” The answer, by the way, is that there are all kinds of creative and useful and entertaining things that people could do if they did not have to produce goods and services, but we need a lot of systems change to make that possible.”
“We would certainly not want our future incentive scheme to be directly influenced by special interests, so it therefore seems likely that the creation of another independent agency would make sense. A “National Incentives Board” could be set up to define and maintain income incentives. This agency would be staffed by professionals and would be able to adjust incentives over time in much the same way that the Federal Reserve controls interest rates.”
Generation Basic Income’s proposal represents a quantum leap. For starters, 2,500 Swiss francs per month ($33K USD per year) is a substantial sum. Also, unlike with welfare programs, beneficiaries wouldn’t be required to document that they are unable to work. That the payments might discourage recipients from looking for a job isn’t a drawback in the eyes of proponents; it’s the whole point. “If unemployment goes up, that’s a great thing,” says Daniel Straub, the coordinator of the referendum effort and author of The Liberation of Switzerland. “Because we should see unemployment as freeing people up to pursue what creates meaning for them.”
http://buswk.co/1kONJIk
Stephan Faris, Business Week
In the future, social networking applications will:
Act as a skin covering our personal social network and providing creative constraints for our content creation, sharing and consumption.
Cater to our myriad of personal filters and attention management applications.
Develop many visualization and interface options to suit a user’s preferred device and offer greater control over their information-consumption experience.
Have shorter half-lives with more rapid evolution cycles.
Use and gather more data less obtrusively
(because you gave them permission to)
Support their own gamification cultures that provide incentives for particular behaviours and create purpose.
Focus on local networks for the high attention returns on augmented reality and heavy competition in interest-based networks.
Robert Scoble and Shel Israel,
Age of Context
Shaun Waterman
, Washington Times
http://bit.ly/1mWrvI2
Chris Luomanen (@chrisluomanen)
in Rudy De Waele's (@mtrends) Shift 2020
Ben Waber,
People Analytics
Andrew Bud (@andrewbud)
in Rudy De Waele's (@mtrends) Shift 2020
David Brin, The Transparent Society
Lance Ulanoff, TED Talk
http://bit.ly/1lwyN2U
Kosta Peric (@copernicc)
in Rudy De Waele's (@mtrends) Shift 2020
Daniel J. Solove
The Future of Reputation
Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines
Robert Scoble and Shel Israel,
Age of Context
Martin Ford, The Lights in the Tunnel
Ariane Van de Ven (@Ariane_vdv)
in Rudy De Waele's (@mtrends) Shift 2020
Salim Ismail (@salimismail)
in Rudy De Waele's (@mtrends) Shift 2020
Marina Gorbis, The Nature of the Future
Gerd Leonhard (@gleonhard)
in Rudy De Waele's (@mtrends) Shift 2020
Blaise Aguera y Arcas (@blaiseaguera)
in Rudy De Waele's (@mtrends) Shift 2020
Glen Hiemstra (@glenhiemstra)
in Rudy De Waele's (@mtrends) Shift 2020
Martin Ford, The Lights in the Tunnel
Questions?
Twitter: @AJEbsary
About.me/AJEbsary
David Brin, The Transparent Society
Robert Scoble and Shel Israel,
Age of Context
Zack Martin, SecureIDnews
http://bit.ly/1hi4hoy
Simon White (@purplesime)
in Rudy De Waele's (@mtrends) Shift 2020
Cater to both the regulated, public web and several anonymous and unregulated virtual spaces.
Help guide youth in their graduated progression from home server, to community server, to the world wide web.
Refs & Reading
Full transcript