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Transcript of Robocars
Kill 34,000 people each year in USA - #3 in years of life lost
USA NHTSA: $871 billion cost of accidents ($600B suffering) - 9% of GDP, 29 cents/mile (0,13 €/km)
50 billion hours spent driving - 8% of GDP
41 hours/year lost to congestion
3 parking spaces per car, 60% of land in LA
Over 25% of our energy budget, more of the CO2
1.7 light years driving!
They are coming
Cars galore with:
Lane keeping warning/assist
Automatic Cruise Control
Pedestrian and collision detection/warning/braking
Programmers can save the world
What car do I need
"The right vehicle for the trip"
Mostly an ultralight
Buy what you use, not what you might need
Your car rents itself out
Or don't buy at all
All the economics of cars change
Greener than transit…
Who killed the electric car?
The battery killed the electric car
People won't tolerate:
Long recharge time
Poor availability of fast recharge
We can make an efficient short-range electric, but sales are modest.
It's all about marketing!
Time for Apollo-like resolve
Range not a factor
Acceleration and speed not a factor
Comfort much more of a factor, soft ride.
Want to be sharable
Different safety constraints
Small width, single passenger or face-to-face, sleepers, RVs
Robots don't care how convenient it is to refuel
They don't care about waiting.
They don't park (they can wait anywhere)
Enables all alternative fuels
We know how to make this car, not how to sell it
Robocars save the electric car
200 million tons CO2
Ending overseas oil imports
Must not be over-regulated
Jurisdictions will compete
Possibly Singapore, China, India, Israel, Japan
Children, the aged, the Drunk, some Jews
Can we order our robocar to do something illegal?
Will police have the power to redirect it?
Will the police ever have grounds to pull you over?
Will you have freedom to tinker?
New traffic code:
Don’t unfairly impede others
They don’t park they stand.
Can stand in driveways, in front of hydrants, double and triple parked
The more cars on road, the more road capacity
Fear - PDLBKBR
Terrorists – will drive-by-wire be banned?
In military, then on back streets
No need to own expensive, rarely used goods – “room of requirement”
Vast alteration of the nature of retail
Also changes airports, farms etc.
Brad Templeton, Singularity University
So NOT speaking for Google
Comes to transportation
Competing Innovators vs. 19th century approaches
vs. Municipal Administrators
Reduced Accidents &
Removing parked cars
As much as 15x more capacity
Mike & Maaike
A pleasant work environment, face to face
No central control or new infrastructure
The "poor man's teleporter"
What car do I need for my life?
Computer Intrusion, Bugs
Cameras and sensors everywhere, in and out of the car
Always recording, if only for test suite
Your own technology should not betray you
Yes, our cell phones already do this
Rental vehicles will invade more than owned ones
Rentals want to track damage, billing and trip records
We can decide what architecture is in place – Anonymous taxi is possible.
Bottom-up vs central control
Plus 100 cars in Gothenberg in 2017
iPhone Speed or Industrial Speed?
Netherlands: 640 deaths
and 162 cyclists
India: 142,000 people -- worst in the world.
Similar per capita, but 7x worse, per car, than the USA. 5L seriously injured.
1.2 million km
Police: 60,000 dead
South China U: 220,000 to 300,000!
10x USA per car!
(25% less per km than USA)
A car with a computer
A computer with wheels
40% of fatalities due to drinking
Fruede am Fahren?
Freude an Freizeit
1. Retain Traditional Cars
2. Buy private robocars
3. Buy a better car, hire it out
4. Summon Robotaxi
(at first instead of 2nd car)
Germany: 3,400 deaths
(about 65% of USA per km)
2.4M accidents, 377K injuries, 67K serious
1.2 Million Dead per Year
Energy (all kinds)
Repairs & Service