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Robocars

Where they will drive us
by

Brad Templeton

on 22 June 2016

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Transcript of Robocars

Robocars
Saving Lives
Energy
Innovation
Policy
Parking
Traffic
Deliverbots
Engineering
Kill 34,000 people each year in USA - #3 in years of life lost

USA NHTSA: $871 billion cost of accidents ($600B suffering) - 9% of GDP, 29 cents/mile (0,13 €/km)
50 billion hours spent driving - 8% of GDP
Human Drivers
41 hours/year lost to congestion
3 parking spaces per car, 60% of land in LA
Over 25% of our energy budget, more of the CO2
1.7 light years driving!
The Reality
They are coming
Cars galore with:
Self parking
Lane keeping warning/assist
Automatic Cruise Control
Pedestrian and collision detection/warning/braking
Programmers can save the world
What car do I need
today?
"The right vehicle for the trip"
Mostly an ultralight
Buy what you use, not what you might need
Your car rents itself out
Or don't buy at all
All the economics of cars change
Greener than transit…
Who killed the electric car?
The battery killed the electric car
People won't tolerate:
Cost
Limited Range
Long recharge time
Poor availability of fast recharge
We can make an efficient short-range electric, but sales are modest.
It's all about marketing!
Time for Apollo-like resolve
Range not a factor
Acceleration and speed not a factor
Comfort much more of a factor, soft ride.
Want to be sharable
Different safety constraints
Small width, single passenger or face-to-face, sleepers, RVs
Robots don't care how convenient it is to refuel
They don't care about waiting.
They don't park (they can wait anywhere)
Enables all alternative fuels
We know how to make this car, not how to sell it
Robocars save the electric car
200 million tons CO2
Ending overseas oil imports
Political issues
Legal, but...
Must not be over-regulated
Jurisdictions will compete
Possibly Singapore, China, India, Israel, Japan
Children, the aged, the Drunk, some Jews
Freedom
Can we order our robocar to do something illegal?
Will police have the power to redirect it?
Will the police ever have grounds to pull you over?
Will you have freedom to tinker?
New traffic code:
Be safe
Don’t unfairly impede others
They don’t park they stand.
Can stand in driveways, in front of hydrants, double and triple parked
The more cars on road, the more road capacity
Privacy
Barriers
Fear - PDLBKBR
Regulators
Terrorists – will drive-by-wire be banned?
In military, then on back streets
No need to own expensive, rarely used goods – “room of requirement”
Vast alteration of the nature of retail
Also changes airports, farms etc.
Brad Templeton, Singularity University
So NOT speaking for Google
Moore's Law
Comes to transportation

Competing Innovators vs. 19th century approaches
vs. Municipal Administrators
Reduced Accidents &
Road Metering
Half-width cars
Removing parked cars
Redirecting Streets
Shorter headways
As much as 15x more capacity
Mike & Maaike
Mobility
on
Demand
A pleasant work environment, face to face
No central control or new infrastructure
The "poor man's teleporter"
What car do I need for my life?
Downsides
Longer trips
Super Sprawl
Computer Intrusion, Bugs
Cameras and sensors everywhere, in and out of the car
Always recording, if only for test suite
Your own technology should not betray you
Yes, our cell phones already do this
Rental vehicles will invade more than owned ones
Rentals want to track damage, billing and trip records
We can decide what architecture is in place – Anonymous taxi is possible.
Bottom-up vs central control
Plus 100 cars in Gothenberg in 2017
iPhone Speed or Industrial Speed?
Drive
Deliver
Refuel
Park
One Vital
Italian Product
Netherlands: 640 deaths
and 162 cyclists
India: 142,000 people -- worst in the world.
Similar per capita, but 7x worse, per car, than the USA. 5L seriously injured.
1.2 million km
Police: 60,000 dead
South China U: 220,000 to 300,000!
10x USA per car!
270 killed
21,000 injured
(25% less per km than USA)
Two Cultures
A car with a computer
A computer with wheels
40% of fatalities due to drinking
Fruede am Fahren?
Freude an Freizeit
Four Models
1. Retain Traditional Cars
2. Buy private robocars
3. Buy a better car, hire it out
4. Summon Robotaxi
(at first instead of 2nd car)
Germany: 3,400 deaths
(about 65% of USA per km)

2.4M accidents, 377K injuries, 67K serious
1.2 Million Dead per Year
Industries

Automotive (duh!)
Energy (all kinds)
Real Estate
Insurance
Parking
Auto Loans
Retail
Delivery/Shipping
Medical
Repairs & Service
Transit
Food
Ownership
Radio
Construction
Robotics
Full transcript