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Innocert - Managing Uncertainty
Transcript of Innocert - Managing Uncertainty
Effective Forecasting Being right is only part of the picture Unlike a prediction... a forecast must
have a logic to it Some simple guidelines i) Articulate and defend the logic you use
ii) Ideally, the person you are sharing your with shold understand enough of the forecast process and logic to make an independent assessment of its quality
iii) Encourage active participation and critic How to distinguish good forecasts from bad? Define a Cone of Uncertainty Rule 1 Look for the S Curve Rule 2 Embrace the Things that Don't Fit Rule 3 Hold Strong Opinions Weakly Rule 4 Look back Twice as Far as You Look Forward Rule 5 Know When Not to Make a Forecast Rule 6 Think about wildcards Think about wildcards "The future's already arrived.
It's just not evenly distributed yet" Change is Never Linear Most technologies take about 20-years to
become an overnight success Inflection point There is a tendency to overestimate the short term
and underestimate the long term. Underestimation Overestimation Magnitude Time If everybody says that a new technology is just around the corner...
it is probably still a few years away. If everybody says "it will never arrive"...it's just around the corner Two thirds of Roomba owners
give their vacuum cleaners a name One third of Roomba owners
have taken it around to a friends
house The problem with history is that our love of certainty
and continuity often causes us to draw the wrong
conclusions. History doesn't repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes The effective forecaster looks to history to find the
rhymes, not the identical events... Come to a conclusion as soon as possible and then set out to
prove yourself wrong. 20/20 Foresight Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World How to understand the uncertainty you are facing? is not about predicting the future; but about seeing the future more clearly Uncertainty is not all or nothing... The objective is to separate the
unknown from the unknowable Four Levels of Residual Uncertainty Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Forecast = = 350 planes over 20 years 1,500 planes over 20 years Magnitude Technology A Technology B Technology C Technology D Time Inflection point Marketable Skills Job 1 Job 2 Job 3 Job 4 Time Career Growth