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Automotive Industry

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by

Emily Waas

on 12 June 2015

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Transcript of Automotive Industry

- design, manufacture, market and distribute motor vehicles.
Automobile Manufacturers
Dimensions and proportions of an auto must fit certain: tire size, front overhang, wheelbase, height, overall length, and rear overhang to satisfy customers.
-Comfort - Quality of materials
-Interior space - Reliability
-Cargo Volume - Aftermarket component availability
-Number of Passengers - Durability
-Safety - Trim level
-Noise level - Performance
-Brand image - Handling
-Eco-sustainability - Weight
-Emissions
-Hi-Tech
-Innovative devices
-Total cost of ownership(fuel maintenance & value at resell)

Features Customers Expect
Automotive Industry
Emily Waas -
The Automotive Industry
- Made up of companies that design, develop, manufacture, distribute, market, sell and repair passenger, luxury and commercial vehicles.

- One in Six

- Revenues for all the segments within the auto industry are on the rise to match values from before the recent economic crisis.

- Segmented into auto suppliers, auto manufacturers, auto dealers and auto repair.

New Car Market Value: 4.4%
Hybrid Vehicle Market: 11.1%
North American
International
General Motors
: Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac and others.
Ford Motor Co.
:Ford, Lincoln and Volvo.
Chrysler Group:
Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge
Tesla Motors
Toyota Mazda
Honda Mitsubishi
Nissan Subaru
Volkwagen Mercedes-Benz
BMW Daimler AG
Fiat (Chrysler)
Hyundai Motor Co.
Kia Motors

Industry Trends
Environmental Awareness
-alternative fuels
-strict fuel economy tests
-reduce CO2 emissions
-tax reductions
-smarter driving
-smaller cars
-improve traffic
Advertising
Market Disrupters
-economic crisis (2008-2009)

-natural disasters (Japan Earthquake 2011)

-international shifts (production to low-cost countries)
Cost and Demand Drivers
-Global/National GDP Growth -Vehicle Replacement Age
-Consumer Confidence Index -Vehicle Pricing
-Low Inflation -Availability of credit
-Low Unemployment -Prices of fuel
-Raw Material Costs -Capital Expenditures
-Inventory Levels -R & D
Auto Parts Suppliers
- Repair and maintenance service revenues: 1.5 % (2011-2016)
- U.S. automotive repair, maintenance and services: 3.0% (2014-2018)
- 4 segments of repair:
Mechanical
: annual growth of 1.3% (through 2016)
Electrical
: annual growth rate of >1%
Exterior & Structural
: annual growth rate of 1.5%
Electronic:
annual growth rate of 4.9%
- 4 segments of shops:
Auto Repair and Maintenance
New Vehicle Dealers
: annual growth of 1.7% (through 2016).
General Repair & Service Stations
: annual growth of 1.4%
Body Shops
: annual growth of 1.0%
Other (Specialists)
: annual growth of 1.6%
Automotive Dealers
Companies that engage in retail sale of new and used passenger cars, light trucks, SUVs and passenger/cargo vans
Associated Industry Codes
NAICS: SIC:
336310 2396
336320 3292
336330 3465
336340 3519
336350 3585
336360 3592
336370 3694
336390 3714
NAICS:

SIC:
441110 5531
441120 5511
441320 5521
441210 5561
441228 5599
423110 5571
-Establishments that manufacture auto parts including; transmissions, powertrain components, engines, engine parts, body parts and trim, electronics, braking-systems, and steering and suspension components.
Supplier Trends
Major companies
:
BorgWarner
Dana
Lear
Tenneco
TRW Automotive
Visteon
Johnson Controls (automotive division)

Associated Industry Codes
NAICS: SIC:
811111 7532
811112 7533
811113 7534
811118 7536
811121 7537
811122 7538
811191 7539
811192 7542
811198 7549
336310
336320
336330
336340
336350
336360
336370
Porter's Five Forces Analysis
Buyer Power: moderate
-consumers hold power in the choice of what they buy and have low switching costs
-price sensitivity restricts some options and low volume purchases lessen their strength

Supplier Power: moderate
-suppliers hold power with quality products because they are demanded at every level
-suppliers sell majority of products to 1 or 2 automakers weakens their power

Threat of New Entrants: moderate

-high fixed costs, strong brands/reputations and economies of scale at all level strengthen barriers
-established foreign competitors expanding are a top threat

Threat of Substitutes: strong
-rising gas prices, a recovering economy and increasing environmental awareness
-used cars, public transport, biking, carpooling, taxi (Uber)
-alternative fuel cars for fossil fuel manufacturers

Degree of Rivalry: strong

-low returns due to high costs of competition, high operating costs and exit barriers.
-automakers are in an oligopoly which minimizes price-based competition but increasing other
(preferred financing and long-term warranties)
-low switching costs for consumers heightens the competition for dealers

The auto industry experiences increased sales during the 2nd quarter (April-June) and decreases during the 4th quarter (October-December).

SAAR for auto sales in May 2014 were expected to be 13.6 million units, up from 12.8 million in May 2013.
-The automotive industry is expected have 12.3% share of the U.S. digital ad spending this year and increase 0.2% for the next three years

Dealers depend on auto manufacturers for: financing, marketing, warranties and inventory
AutoNation
CarMax
Penske Automotive Group
Trends
Car Repair Customers
Households
:75% of the industry revenue
The two main groups are consumers 50 and over and consumers between 35-45 years.

Business
: 22% of the industry revenue
Includes business that depend on motor vehicles for the daily running of the company, as well as taxi and rental car shops.

Government
: 3% of the industry revenue
Consists of federal, state and local, this share has decreased in the past years due to government budget cuts.
Repair & Maintenance
- economy stabilizing

- average vehicle age nearing 11

- increase in DIY (do it yourself) repair

- more vehicles on roads but less repair

- new models, newer/hi-tech parts

-consumers have a lot of options about where they can go to get repairs besides repair shops for example; car dealers, gas stations, eRetailers and Sear/Kmart branches.

-repair shops draw customers from a 20 mile radius, so a convenient location is important.
-shops spent an average of $16,000 annually on advertising in 2013

-businesses in this industry depend greatly on customer referrals, so good reputations are key
-Mechanical repairs sales higher 2nd and 3rd quarter

-Collision repair sales higher 1st and 4th quarter

-Auto repair and maintenance revenues are forecasted to reach 91.5 billion in 2016
- common: welders, paint booths, frame machines and plasma cutters

-hi-tech cars bring hi-tech repair

-diagnostic computer systems

-onboard diagnostics (OBD)

-Electronic databases and cataloging

- eRetailing, 20-40% cheaper

- The move from less steel parts to more aluminum part to increase efficiency in vehicles impacts the auto repair industry

- Specially trained technicians tools and bays are needed to repair aluminum parts.

-Increased vehicle safety, fewer miles driven, milder weather and consumers putting off repairs to save money have caused demand for collision and mechanical repair to go down.

-changes in technology and parts cause small body shops to struggle to keep up with franchises.

-
Right to Repair
national standard as of January 2014
automakers give same vehicle information
repair shops can purchase data in a "common format"
open format for diagnosing starting MY 2018
Slow Growth
Competition
Advertising
Sales
Equipment
Shifts
Sales
International
US automakers need to follow this shift to keep costs competitive and to reach a wider global market.

Europe on the rise
Europe's Car Market: 3.0% for 2014
Europe's Auto Sales: 14.7 million by 2020

China and India
- all automakers had increases in sales in China in 2013
- the Indian market is one of the most competitive markets
- GM and Ford have set up production facilities in countries like China and India and have seen growth in sales

Increased risk of production recalls.

Manufacturer Trends
Increased Innovation
- 14 in top 50
- 4 areas saw patent increase of 6-15% (1995-2011)

Buying used to buying new
- low lease rates and inexpensive financing
- pent-up demand
- average vehicle age is around 11

Increasing demand for consumer telematics
- 2013 market penetration 11%, 2018 expected to be 46%
- CAGR: 21.8% (2013-2018)
- Shift from tether connectivity to embedded
- increase in EVs brings increase in telematics

Increasing demand for EVs
- Gas prices CAGR: 7.2% (2013-2020)
- HEV and PHEV battery prices decreased 10% in 2013, 26% by 2020
- The U.S. market is 49% cars and 51% light-duty trucks.

- non-luxury and luxury

- top non-luxury makes ( Chevrolet, Ford, Toyota)

- top luxury makes ( Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Acura and Audi)
Various global auto manufacturers' market shares in the US in 2013.
Cumulative Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR)

-Digital ad spending is on the rise with an expected increase of 143% from 2012 ($4.27 billion -2018 $10.36 billion).

Automotive Industry Supply Chain
Consumer Reports 2014 Top Pick Cars
Best

Green Car
:
Toyota Prius,
44 MPG

Best
Luxury

Car
:

Audi A6,
22 MPG

Best
Compact

Car
:

Subaru Impreza,
27 MPG

Best
Small

SUV
:

Subaru Forester,
26 MPG

Best
Midsized SUV
:

Hyundai Santa Fe,
20 MPG

Best
Minivan
:

Honda Odyssey,
21 MPG

Best
Pickup Truck
:

Ram 1500,
15 MPG

Best
Midsized Sedan
:

Honda Accord,
30 MPG

Best
Sports Sedan:

BMW 328i,
28 MPG

Best
Car Overall
:
Tesla Model S,
94 MPG
(All Electric)
CAGR (2013-2018)
Market volume: 5.1%
Motor vehicle demand: 1.9%
Motor vehicle production: 3.0%
- 2013 saw 82 million in global auto industry sales

- 2014 expected to be 85 million

- 2018 forecasted to cross 100 million
Ec

- Friendly

Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Advertising
Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Electric Vehicles
no liquid fuels
zero emissions
$0.02-$0.04 per mile for fuel
battery store electrical energy that powers the motor
charged by plugging the vehicle in
38% fuel savings in the city, 20% on the highway
lower emissions
$0.05-$0.07 per mile for fuel compared to $0.10-$0.15
powered by conventional or alternative fuels and electrical energy stored in a battery
charged through regenerative braking
use 40%-60%less fuel than conventional vehicles
lower emission, lower than HEVs
$0.02-$0.04 per mile for fuel, when running on electricity
$0.05-$0.07 per mile for fuel , when running on gasoline
powered by conventional or alternative fuels and electrical energy stored in a battery
charged by plugging in or using regenerative braking (slows a vehicle down by converting it's kinetic energy into another form, which can be used or stored versus conventional braking where excess kinetic energy is converted to heat and wasted).
MY 2006 saw 69 vehicles 30+ MPG
MY 2014 saw 450, an increase of 625%

51 Hybrids
35 Clean Diesels
11 Battery Electric
7 Plug-In Hybrids
Lighter Vehicles
roofs of carbon fiber, plastic windshields, bumpers fashioned out of aluminum foam
lighter vehicles can use smaller engines which get higher MPG
a decrease in 110 pounds off each of the 1 billion cars on the road could translate to $40 billion saved in fuel costs each year
10 % of weight reduction yields a decrease of 6 -7 % in fuel consumption.
70% of car purchases start with internet research

78% of consumers visit 6 websites before finally purchasing a car

U.S. vehicle shoppers who have visited an automotive website via a smartphone was 17% in 2010 and 31% in 2012.

1/3 of social media users find recommendations about products of services from family and friends almost exclusively through social media.

less test drives and less travel

Top car websites
: Nada.org, Nadaguides.com, Autotrader.com, CarMax.com, Cars.com, CarSoup.com, Autobytel.com, eBayMotors.com, KBB.com, UsedCars.com, Nationalautostores.com, Vehiclehistory.gov, iihs.org/iihs/ratings, Safercar.gov, Consumerreports.org, Recalls.gov/nhtsa, CarsDirect.com,
Big Switch for Dealerships
-Dealers benefit from TV advertising by auto manufacturers.

-"56% of car buyers who contacted a dealer because of social media advertising made a purchase."

-Ad spending share of U.S. Automotive Dealerships
2002 5.0 % went to internet in 2013 26.0%
2002 46.7% went to newspaper in 2013 15.4%
Average vehicle age on the road is increasing

Pushing Certified Preowned (CPO) car sales

Consumers are demanding more eco-friendly and increased connectivity vehicles

Dealers creating apps, extending hours and using technology for customer convenience

Dealerships are entering other businesses to gain revenue
New Car Dealers: 2.1% (2009-2014)

Used Car Dealers: 3.5% (2009-2014)

Car Sales: 2.0% (2012-2027)

Small car (economy, micro, coupe) Pick-up trucks
Midsize car Cross-over
Luxury car (specialty, sports utility) Minivan
Large car Midsized SUV
Off-road vehicles Large SUV
Motor Cycles Small SUV
Commercial Vans Luxury SUV
Recreational Vehicles
Shift of production moving to low-cost countries:
PARTS: OE vs. OEM/OES vs. Aftermarket
Original Equipment (OE)
- made by car manufacturer or parts supplier
- branded with car manufacturer's logo
- expensive
Original Equipment Manufacturer/Supplier (OEM/OES)
- not made by car manufacturers
- get specifications from car manufacturers
- same as OE but no logo
- less expensive
Ex. Bosch Bilistien, Boge, Beru, Mann, ATE
Aftermarket
- made by OEM or other manufacturer
- not made to car manufacturer specifications
- mostly performance parts
- good, bad, counterfeit
Ex. Bilstien is an OEM/OES that also offers aftermarket parts
Influence of Macroeconomic Forces
increases in input costs and cost fluctuations
global demand for commodities lead to increases in material costs and cost fluctuations
Impact of Regulations
new government policies will lead to increases in the use of alternative powertrains and different parts
Vehicle Content
safety (plastics)
performance (carbon fiber, lithium ion batteries, drive-by-wire)
customization
entertainment
communication (V2V, V2I, V2D)

Increased Competition
impact of cost pressure
OEM pricing power
LCC (low cost country) suppliers attempt to gain market share
new LCC auto makers entering the North American market
Market Growth
BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) markets will be a growth opportunity
auto sales in Russia 4.4 million units by 2020
suppliers must expand product portfolio to met local demands
U.S. Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing: 3.0% (2014-2018)
U.S. Sales of Light Vehicles: increased 5.7% YOY through March 2014

Steel
Plastic
Aluminum
Glass
Rubber
Materials
Steel and aluminum are vital raw materials and make up 30% of the weight of a conventional car.

900 lbs of aluminum = 1,500 lbs of steel
The glass market has increasing competition from the plastic and aluminum market.
Companies are also using plastic instead of steel to lower the weight of automobiles.

Rubber quality also helps with fuel mileage and road safety.

- shift to weight saving aluminum body

-aluminum use in the auto industry will triple by 2030

- prices have been low but are increasing

- Body sheet aluminum market: $300 million
(By 2025 is could be worth $7.5 billion)

- new materials means new machines

-1/5 of steel production goes to the auto industry

- Cars 2,400-3,000 lbs of steel
SUVs 3,000-4,000 lbs

- Steel and other metal parts are being replaced by lighter weight materials

-High strength steel, carbon fiber
-75% of the world's rubber production is used to make tires for vehicles

-"$32.1 billion is spent on car tires in the tire industry"

- Biomass-derived carbon black (biological material
derived from recently living organisms) can replace
synthetic rubber and petroleum-based carbon black.
- glass demand dependent on auto demand: initial and replacement

- windshields to rear/side view mirrors ->

-navigation screens and back up cameras

- 50% of the construction of new vehicles today

- lighter and less expensive than steel

- makes vehicles cheaper to build

- use of recycled plastics (water bottles)
Hyundai QarmaQ Concept:

dashboard doorhandles
gauges floor mats
dials seat belts
switches air bags
AC Vents

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Clean Air Act
GHG emissions standards
(MY 2012-2016): 250 grams/mile of CO2
(MY 2017-2025): 163 grams/mile of CO2
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)
Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA)
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards
(MY 2012-2016): 34.1-35.5 MPG
Final (MY 2017-2021): 40.3-41.0 MPG
Augural (MY 2022-2025): 48.7-49.7 MPG
Passenger Cars (MY 2017-2025): 39.6-40.1 to 55.3-56.2
February 2014 V2V communications
The EPA and NHTSA's National Program
Goal: harmonize vehicle regulations worldwide for better, cleaner and safer production.
.
-
- structural fiberglass (plastics reinforced by glass fibers)
increasingly being used for autos
Cumulative Annual Growth Rate (CAGR): 2013-2018
CAGR
Associated Industry Codes
NAICS: SIC:
336111 3711
336112 3713
336120 3714
336211 3715
- 100% EV sales increased 228.88%

- PHEV sales increased 26.87 %

- EV and PHEV sales increased 84%
- May 2014 reached a seasonally adjusted rate (SAAR) of 16.77 million up from 16.04 million in April which is the highest since July 2006
Global
U.S.
Light Vehicle Segments

Car:
Small
Middle
Large
Luxury

Truck:
Cross Utility
Sport Utility
Van
Pickup
Comm. Chassis
This industry provides repair and maintenance services for lights vehicles which include passenger cars and light trucks
Major U.S. companies
Bridgestone
Jiffy Lube
Meineke (division of Driven Brands)
Midas
Monro
Mufflier Brake
Safelite Group
CAGR
Associated Industry Codes
Major U.S. Companies
2012
2018
INTERESTING FACT: Google search follows auto sales
-disposable income increased 4.0% in May 2014

-consumer confidence index increased to 85.2 (June) from 82.2 (May)

-unemployment decreases to 6.3%

-U.S. GDP expanded 1.50 % in the first quarter of 2014 over the same quarter of 2013

-the parts segment is the most lucrative

-3 parts that add the highest value throughout the supply chain:
Designing
, forecasting trends and increasing customization early
Marketing
to increase consumers' perceived value
Distribution
/
Sales
through incentives

-shift buyer driven market because saturated market, so choice matters

-shift to a more technological, connected and digital age

-tight competition leading to outsourcing and focus on core competencies
Buying
(discrete transactions, reduce spending):
Repair, Dealer

Procurement
(quality improvement, increase productivity and cooperation):
Suppliers, Manufacturers

Supply Management
(delivering value to end customer, build supply network):
Repair, Manufacturers, Dealers, Suppliers
University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence Sentiment (YOY %)
Global Total Vehicle Sales (YOY %)
World GDP (YOY %)
Vehicle Technology
-autonomous
-improved safety and performance
-V2V, V2I, V2D (SpaT)
-wireless connectivity
Consolidation
-fewer small independent producers
-mass production
-strict and costly regulations
U.S. Manufacturing Motor Vehicles & Parts SA
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Market Capitalization Index of the 500 largest U.S. companies)
GDP US Nominal Dollars SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate)
CAFE Standards MY 2012-2025
- All these parts use different kinds of plastic
68
55
Associated NAICS Codes
:
336111
336112
811111
811112
811198
423110
335312
336312
336399
811198

59
42
25
66
63,
3
38
54
16
16
31
16
1
1
16
18
10
31
16
31
31
14
21
26
6
14
26
14
6
26
36
63
48
60
60
60
18
2
2
2
33
2
30
30
18
50
50
60
60
60
27
27
70
56
70
70
56
56
70
70
70
2
2
40
40
41
52
52
43
9
13
2
22
22
32
49
27
61
13
13
51
28
39
29
29
51
28
28
28
6
6
26
26
37
41
41
53
47
15
69
nearly completely recyclable, pedestrian friendly
Market Divided
References
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*reference numbers are indicated to the right of the referenced material*
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Industry Summary
Purchasing Orientation
CAGR SUMMARY
U.S. Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing
: 3.0% (2013-2018)
Motor Vehicle Demand
: 1.9% (2013-2018)
New Car Dealers
: 2.1% (2009-2014)
Used Car Dealers
:3.5% (2009-2014)
Car Sales
: 2.0% (2012-2027)
Automotive Repair and Maintenance
: 3.0% (2014-2018)
16
36
55
68
52
13
Almost 300 vehicles were tested on performance, reliability and safety
Full transcript