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Getting to 270

Predicting the results of the Nov 6 US Presidential Election
by

Kristi Winters

on 6 May 2013

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Transcript of Getting to 270

Now on to Laurence and how campaigns work to make sure their supporters turn out to vote... Most run Obama ad in Ohio (~2,600 x) Topics to be covered:
What is the Electoral College?
Campaigning:
The ad wars (Kristi)
Demographics are destiny
The ground war (Laurence, PowerPoint)
National polls vs Swing state polls
Who will win, where, why and how (we think) http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/ The swing states
Where to find the latest information Among whites Obama is doing much worse than in 2008. His support among white voters was at 38 percent, Romney's support from white voters was at 59 percent. (Washington Post-ABC News poll) 63 percent of the voting population are white. Demographics African Americans: 92 percent for Obama to 3 percent for Romney (October). Blacks make up 12 percent of the population. Demographics The US electorate can be chopped up by demographics:

Recent polls report Romney leads Obama by 14 points among men (Obama and John McCain were tied among men)









Obama currently leads Romney by eight percentage points among women (Obama led McCain by 14 among women) Who are they targeting? Independent Groups and Super PAC ads The Wesleyan Media Project reports that more ads have aired in 2012 than in all of 2008 and 2004.

The presidential race's ad wars alone are breaking campaign records, with more than 915,000 commercials aired on broadcast and cable stations.

In Ohio, the key swing state, it would take about 80 days of nonstop viewing to see all 58,235 of the typically 30-second *presidential advertisements* that have aired in the last month. The ad wars Campaigning The Electoral College The original Constitution put barriers between the people and the federal government:

No direct election of the President: each state has electors who determine the outcome

State legislatures appointed US Senators until 17th Amendment (1913)

The Constitution leaves the voting qualifications to individual states.

By the American Civil War most white men were allowed to vote but all women and men of color were denied the vote.

Constitutional Amendments to prevent denial of voting rights based on
Birth - All persons born or naturalized are citizens of the U.S.
(14th Amendment, 1868)
Race - (15th Amendment, 1870)
Sex - (19th Amendment, 1920)
Age of majority (18) (26th Amendment, 1971) The Electoral College The path to 270:


7 days out and the race is simply too close to call, however swing state polls and the electoral map suggest an Obama advantage

Three words to guide watching the results:
Ohio Ohio Ohio
It will probably be a late night for Americans waiting for the results. Who will win, where, why and how (we think) Not necessarily. Like American football, Presidential elections are a game of territory.
(538.com) National or
Swing State polls? Recent national polling has shown a late surge for Romney
Does this signal a Romney win? National or
Swing State polls? Las Vegas set the record as the place with the most televised campaign advertisements in a single year: 73,000. (NY Times Oct 15, 2012) Commercials are aired at a rate of 10,000 per week.

At least 98 different ads are in rotation: Super PACs, Democratic and Republican committees, Congressional candidates, local candidates and, President Obama and Mitt Romney.

In the presidential race alone, the campaigns and their allies have reserved about $70 million in commercial time between Oct. 15 and Election Day. The ad wars Campaigning Maine and Nebraska electors distributed by way of the Congressional District Method. Electoral College map Predicting the results of the Nov 6 USA Presidential election Getting to 270 One of the main features of US elections is the amount of money spent

In 2008 campaign $5.3 billion was spent by candidates, political parties and interest groups on congressional and presidential races.

Center for Responsive Politics estimates that the 2012 elections will cost $5.8 billion Most run Romney ad in Ohio (~2,700 x) “Events, dear boy, Events”. attributed to Harold Macmillan (Prime Minister, 1957 -1963)

2012: Sandy Obama has the support of 73% of all Latino registered voters, compared to 21% who favor Romney (October 29). 16 percent of the U.S. population is Latino.
(Washington Post-ABC News national tracking poll) (ABC News) http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/ns/msnbc-morning_joe/#49606751 http://video.msnbc.msn.com/nightly-news/49575098#49575098 http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ http://realclearpolitics.com/
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