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Transcript of Andorra
Country Analysis by Elizabeth Henry
a. Crude Birth Rate: 8.48 (per 1000 population)
b. Crude Death Rate: 6.82
c. Rate of Natural Increase: .0166%
d. Infant Mortality Rate: 3.69 (per 1000 births)
e. Maternal Mortality Rate: .07 (based on data of Spain and France)
f. Life expectancy: Male-79 Female-85.4 Total-82.2
g. Gross National Income per capita: $41,750 (2008)
h. Purchasing Power Parity per capita: $37,200 (2011)
i. Population Density: Arithmetic-167 per sqare km
Physiological- 7,077 per square km
Although the population of Andorra is currently increasing, the birth rates are expected to decline a little more (from 8 to 7) over the next 10 years. While the population pyramid and demographic transition model have fluctuated greatly in the past 20 years, it seems that the population has become pretty stable now. There is a projected increase in death rate over the next 10-20 years, and this is probably due to the giant baby boom dying out. The high growth rate in 2005 is most likely due to the spike in migration rate (-12 to 16) in 2005.
1995 2005 2014 2015 2025
Midyear population (in thousands) 63 76 85 86 85
Growth rate (percent) -0.6 2.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2
Total fertility rate (births/woman) 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5
Crude birth rate (per 1,000) 11 11 8 8 7
Births (in thousands) 1 1 1 1 1
Life expectancy at birth (years) 79 82 83 83 83
Infant mortality rate (per 1,000) 6 4 4 4 3
Under 5 mortality rate (per 1,000) 8 5 4 4 4
Crude death rate (per 1,000) 5 6 7 7 9
Deaths (in thousands) 0 0 1 1 1
Net migration rate (per 1,000) -12 16 0 0 0
Net # of migrants (thousands) -1 1 0 0 0
Population Analysis Continued
Right now, Andorra seems to be in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model. When looking at the chart, notice that the projected statistics from 2014-2025 are more or less consistent. Because there are virtually no predicted changes in the birth or death rates (and both rates are pretty low,) Andorra can be said to be in Stage 4. They made this transition between 2005 and 2014, when the CBR dropped. The baby boom can be explained by the end of World War II. lthough Andorra remained neutral in WWII, it is right in the middle of European countries that were involved. So even though Andorra was not fighting in the war, its citizens still celebrated when it was over...
Predictions for the Future
I don't think Andorra will transition into Stage 5 anytime soon, especially because it just transitioned into Stage 4. Eventually, Andorra may consider some pro-natalist policies when its death rate surpasses its birth rate, but that won't occur until Stage 5. Another reason for implementing pro-natalism would be if there was a big war or natural disaster that wiped out a big chunk of the population. Anti-natalist policies may be put into place if there is another big wave of immigrants (like in 2005,) but otherwise there is no need for anti-natalist policies.