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Climate and Feedback loops (draft)

Notes from PMU199 seminar (part 1)

Steve Easterbrook

on 17 October 2014

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Transcript of Climate and Feedback loops (draft)

Feedback Loops Quantity
of stuff Rate of
growth Capacity
for more + + + - R B Time Amount of stuff The structure of a system determines its behaviour Cannot change behaviour without changing the structure Where are there delays? carbon
emissions atmospheric
concentrations Carbon cycle
inertia temperature
response Thermal
inertia impacts random
variations ecosystem
resilience societal
resilience public concern denial coordinated
action individualism missing governance
structures policy
shifts technology
deployment bureaucracy new
norms R&D lag diffusion of
innovation social resistance habituation investment
lag infrastructural
inertia Human
Population Birth
Rate Carrying
Capacity + + + - R B Time Population GDP Economic growth Natural
Resources + + + - R B iPhones
Sold Word of
Mouth market
saturation + + + - R B GHGs in
atmosphere energy
retained burning
fossil fuels + + + - R B incoming solar
radiation solar constant aerosols outgoing
radiation radiative
forcing temperature fossil fuel
reserves price of
fuel B demand for
energy economic
development Saturation of
carbon sinks accelerated
carbon cycle R climate
sensitivity imbalance melting
permafrost ice
cover albedo R R The Big Picture viability of
new sources B Effect of Delays Quantity
of stuff Rate of
Change Capacity
for more + + + - R B Time Amount of stuff Limit delay Nature of overshoot depends on length of delay Limit Popu-lation Birth
Rate Available
resources + + + - R B delay Carrying
Capacity overshoot
Full transcript