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Autonomous cars

Summary of current state-of-the-art and intro to a web simulation of a shared fleet of autonomous vehicles in Canberra.
by

kent fitch

on 7 February 2015

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Transcript of Autonomous cars

Enabling a
universal, egalitarian, inexpensive and efficient public transport system
for Canberra

http://www.projectcomputing.com/resources/cacs/index.html
Autonomous cars
Recent advances in
electric vehicles

Critical issues:
Cost
Battery Range & Life
Nissan Leaf
2012: $53,000
2015: $40,000

Range: ~120km
Tesla Model 3
2017?: $US35,000?


Range: ~320km

?
GM Bolt
2017?: $US30,000?


Range: ~320km
Smart ED (Benz)
2015: $US25,000


Range: ~100km
excluding tax offsets
Source: https://theconversation.com/affordable-batteries-for-green-energy-are-closer-than-we-think-28772
"While the battery of an electric car capable of driving 200km would have cost around US$28k in 2009 and US$22k today, the cost is expected to drop to US$11k by 2020 and around US$5k by 2030."
Battery lifetime
Current commercial requirement: ~1000 cycles @75%

Current R&D:
- 5K - 25K cycles @75% - 85%
Recent advances in
autonomous cars

Manufacturers
IRVINE, California (27 August 2013) – Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. today announced that the company will be ready with multiple, commercially-viable Autonomous Drive vehicles by 2020. ...
For the aged or those with disabilities, Autonomous Drive offers another benefit: true independence and mobility for all.
Tesla Motors Inc. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said the technology to make a fully autonomous car will be ready in five or six years, and the result will be vehicles far less likely to harm occupants and others on the road. - Wall Street Journal, 17 Sep 2014
CEO Mark Fields (in Jan 2015): "We believe in the industry that there will be a fully autonomous vehicle, probably within the next five years"
[head of product communications, Stefan Moser] predicted Audi would be ready with fully autonomous vehicle technology in about two years, though said government regulations may slow down its introduction to the market.

“[The] regulation, that’s a problem, but we can have the car in 2016, 2017,” Moser said. “The next A8 will have it, full autonomous.”
Dr Herbert Kohler, Head of Corporate Research and Sustainability and Chief Environmental Officer: "We are convinced that autonomous driving will be a central factor on the way to comfortable, accident-free driving"
"The dream of a car that can drive itself is closer to reality than you might think. In fact, we expect semi-autonomous vehicles to be available to customers before the end of this decade and the technology for fully autonomous vehicles capable of navigating the roadways ready during the next decade." - GM Vision website
"When will the mass-market version of Google’s self-driving car arrive?
Self-driving car project director Chris Urmson puts the date out at three and a half to six years — so, 2017 to 2020"
"Volvo Cars will play a leading role in the world’s first large-scale autonomous driving pilot project in which 100 self-driving Volvo cars will use public roads in everyday driving conditions around the Swedish city of Gothenburg.

The ground-breaking project ‘Drive Me – Self-driving cars for sustainable mobility’ is a joint initiative between Volvo Car Group, the Swedish Transport Administration, the Swedish Transport Agency, Lindholmen Science Park and the City of Gothenburg.

The ‘Drive Me’ project is endorsed by the Swedish Government. The aim is to pinpoint the societal benefits of autonomous driving and position Sweden and Volvo Cars as leaders in the development of future mobility" - Press release, Dec 2013
Forecasts
"A year later the momentum around self-driving vehicles is astonishing. In some ways, the industry is moving even faster than we predicted. Rarely does a day go by without another announcement about a new technological breakthrough or a new joint venture. Traditional automotive manufacturers are teaming up with high tech companies; innovative start-ups are seeking and finding investors. The landscape is shifting before our eyes.

...
The growth in self-driving mobility on demand services could mark the end of the two-car family
...

... we believe the market opportunities for self-driving vehicles and technologies are enormous, and innovative companies will continue to drive the technology forward."
"Autonomous vehicles represent much more than a technology revolution; they require a complete transformation across the mobility ecosystem. There will be enormous disruption to established business models across multiple industries and the time is now to respond and position for the opportunity..

Australia offers the ideal market to test, produce and refine autonomous vehicles. Autonomous vehicles are already being tested on highways and roads, and commercial production has been flagged as three to five years away by most of the major car manufacturers."
The Morgan Stanley research report on Tesla Motors (Feb 2014) included a detailed analysis of the economic benefits that they think will drive the development and adoption of fully autonomous cars in the next 5-10 years. They assert that when almost 100% of the cars on the road are autonomous, a "base" estimate can be made for annual savings to the US economy of:

Fuel savings: $US158 billion
Accident savings: $US563 billion
Productivity gains: $US422 billion (freeing drivers to do whatever they want)
Congestion savings: $US149 billion

These total to $US1.3 trillion, or about 8% of US GDP
.

Morgan Stanley's "bull" and "bear" estimates for these savings are $US2.2 trillion and $US0.7 trillion respectively.
Preparing a Nation for Autonomous Vehicles
estimates the annual economic benefits of autonomous vehicles in the USA at

$US447 billion
at 90% uptake.

The Eno Center analysed the US Department of Transportation's National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey, Report to Congress (July 2008) to estimate that 93% of motor vehicle accidents had human cause as the primary factor, and quotes Hayes' analysis that autonomous vehicles could reduce motor vehicle fatality rates per person-mile travelled to a level approaching "those seen in aviation and rail, about 1% of current rates"
On the basis of in-depth analyses of the trends driving the development and likely adoption of AVs, BCG expects that partially self-driving cars with highway autopilot functionality and traffic jam autopilot will hit the roads in large numbers by 2017, followed by urban autopilot by 2022, and fully autonomous driving by 2025.

Mass adoption of AVs will not occur, however, until vehicles are secure from cyberattack, uncertainty about liability is resolved, remaining social resistance is overcome, and high-precision maps are developed. Assuming those conditions are satisfied, a market opportunity of roughly $42 billion by 2025 awaits, says the global management consulting firm.

“Many people don’t realize how far along some of these technologies are,” said Xavier Mosquet, North America leader of BCG's Automotive practice and managing director of the firm's Detroit office. “Even more surprising, consumer interest and the production costs will make autonomous vehicles highly attractive to both carmakers and their customers.

A new study from The Conference Board of Canada, in collaboration with the Van Horne Institute and Canadian Automated Vehicles Centre of Excellence (CAVCOE), titled
Automated Vehicles: The Coming of the Next Disruptive Technology
, estimates that self-driving cars could be on the roads by 2020–25 and economic benefits for Canada could total over
$65 billion per year
.

“The potential scope for impacts of automated vehicles on Canada is profound,” said Vijay Gill, Director of Policy Research at The Conference Board of Canada. “Self-driving cars could free up driving time, significantly reduce the number of car accidents, minimize road congestion and reduce the amount of fuel that we consume. However, these new vehicles will pose some economic and social challenges including possible job-displacement and required employment retraining.”

Every major commercial automaker is engaged in research in this area and full-scale commercial introduction of truly autonomous (including driverless) vehicles are being predicted to occur within five to 20 years.

... we find that AV technology will likely lead to substantial reductions in crashes and the resulting human toll. While a portion of these benefits will accrue to the purchaser of the vehicle, much of the benefit is in the form of a positive externality to other vehicles, pedestrians, and bicyclists.

Response to opportunities:
Singapore and UK

Singapore
UK

AV technology has the potential to transform our lives, albeit on a more local scale. For example, instead of driving yourself to work in the morning and being stuck behind the wheel in peak hour traffic, you could use an AV and get a head-start on your emails during the drive. An AV could help your elderly parent get to the clinic. At the end of the day, an AV could pick your kids up from school, instead of you having to do so.
..
We face a great number of mobility challenges but as we strive to make Singapore a Smart Nation, we will find innovative ways of meeting these challenges, through a combination of new technology, new business models and forward-thinking regulation. This is an exciting time, as we work towards our vision of AV-enabled, smart and sustainable mobility for Singaporeans.
Mrs Josephine Teo
Senior Minister of State at the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Transport, Singapore
Driverless – or even highly automated – cars and vans can deliver improved safety; improved emissions, reduced noise; optimal usage of road capacity and better use of the scarcest commodities of all these days. Time – and attention.
....
Driver/human error is reported to account for over 90% of traffic incidents, and so it is clear that driverless cars will make a huge difference.
...
Let’s just imagine the life changing opportunity then of a driverless car not just for blind and partially sighted people, but for all in our community.
It will be truly transformational.
...
Driverless technology is the future. We can’t avoid it and I don’t want us to: I want the UK to learn as much as we can and as quickly as we can. And that includes understanding how these vehicles interact with society and other road users.
UK Transport Minister Claire Perry
The opportunity for
Canberra

Economic Benefits
Cars: 23,000 on the road @ $40,000 commissioned
residual value: $0
useful life: 36 months
maintenance: 2.5 cents/km
annual rego, insurance, admin, comms: $2,000
usable range: 190km
efficiency: 6km/kWHr
spares: +5% of fleet

Chargers: 1,500 @ $15,000 installed
residual value: $0
useful life: 120 months
annual rent & maintenance: $3,000
power delivery rate: 75kW, 80% efficiency
cost of electricity per kWH: $0.20.

Fares: Peak period flag-fall: $0.45 and rate per km: $0.25
cost of average 13.4km trip: $3.79
Off peak period flag-fall: $0.20 and rate per km: $0.20
cost of average 13.4km trip: $2.87.

Misc: Fixed annual system cost: $1,000,000.

Finance: 100% borrowed at
10%
annual interest

Journeys: 750,000 per work day

Wait times: >98% within 1 minute, > 99.9% within 3 minutes

Surplus:
$78 million
How much?
Scaling the economic benefits from US and Canadian studies to the ACT
Morgan Stanley: $2.8 billion/year
ENO: $1.0 billion/year
Conf Board Canada: $1.0 billion/year
($1.5 - $4.5 billion per/yr range)
(assumes ACT economy is about 1/550th of the US, and about 1/60th of the Canadian economies)
BIG NUMBERS!
$1 billion is over 3% of total ACT "Gross state product"
Some of this could be "captured" by a fleet operator
Big business: Uber, auto-manufacturer, ...
Small business: local co-op?
Government: profits back to the community
Social Benefits

ACTION bus: $5.40 + $15.30 subsidy =

$20.70/day
+ travel time

Private car:
$26.66/day
(including parking in Parliamentary Triangle)

Autonomous fleet:
$7.58/day
For commuters (typical commute)
on demand
door-to-door
24x7
Mary from Farrer

works in Braddon, childcare in Narrabundah, weekend sport everywhere

Joe from Scullin
stack-shelves in Weston at nights, studies at Bruce CIT

Edith - 85
shouldn't be driving, carer for husband, doesn't maintain car

Blake from Downer
2am in a Kippax bar, again...

Jamie from Kambah
works at Campbell Park, studies late at ANU

Jayne from Higgins
single mum, 2 young kids, arthritic and back problems, trying to study at Reid CIT

Hoang from Palmerston
works in Parliamentary Triangle, needs to shop weeknights

Henry in Year 12
spends a lot of time on & waiting for buses: school, shift-work, visiting his Dad
Motivation
Why does this matter?

Mary from Farrer

works in Braddon, childcare in Narrabundah, weekend sport everywhere

Joe from Scullin
stack-shelves in Weston at nights, studies at Bruce CIT

Edith - 85
shouldn't be driving, carer for husband, doesn't maintain car

Blake from Downer
2am in a Kippax bar, again...

Jamie from Kambah
works at Campbell Park, studies late at ANU

Jayne from Higgins
single mum, 2 young kids, arthritic and back problems, trying to study at Reid CIT

Hoang from Palmerston
works in Parliamentary Triangle, needs to shop weeknights

Henry in Year 12
spends a lot of time on & waiting for buses: school, shift-work, visiting his Dad
The current public transport system delivers a poor service at enormous financial and social cost
Low patronage
Customer satisfaction - 65%
On time services - 71% (within a 5 minute tolerance)
Fares cover ~ 15% of costs
Community subsidy of ~ $120M per year


Each passenger boarding costs ACTION $7.96 and with an estimated 1.3 boardings on average being required to complete a one-way journey, each such journey costs ACTION around $10.35
Fully autonomous electric vehicles are very likely to be a commercial reality between 2020 and 2025
A shared fleet operating
on-demand
door-to-door
24 x 7
For
commuters
students
those who can't drive
Reduced pollution and congestion
zero tail-pipe emissions
car sharing in peak periods
coordinated travel
"platooning"
Improved safety
Driver error is responsible for 90-95% of road accidents

Annual cost of road crashes in Australia: $27 billion
Leading cause of death and injury 12-24 year olds
"Human beings make terrible drivers. They
talk on the phone
and
run red lights
,
signal to the left and turn to the right
. They drink
too much beer
and
plow into trees
or
veer into traffic
as they
swat at their kids
. They have
blind spots
,
leg cramps
,
seizures
, and
heart attacks
. They
rubberneck
,
hotdog
, and
take pity on turtles
, cause
fender benders
,
pileups
, and
head-on collisions
. They
nod off
at the wheel,
wrestle with maps
,
fiddle with knobs
, have
marital spats
, take the
curve too late
, take the
curve too hard
,
spill coffee
in their laps, and
flip over
their cars. Of the ten million accidents that Americans are in every year, nine and a half million are
their own damn fault
."
Burkhard Bilger, New Yorker, November 2013
Reduce land and buildings dedicated to car-parking
on - street parking
off - street car parks
home and commercial garages
Remove public subsidy of transport
Public transport must compete with education, health and other high priorities needing funds
A universal, egalitarian, inexpensive and efficient public transport system is a social good
Slow and expensive transport is an unproductive drain on the economy and a contributor to personal stress.

Better mobility for all citizens has flow-on effects throughout the community and economy.
We are...
Still too expensive
purchase - twice the cost of petrol car
running costs - take years to make up the difference
"Range anxiety"
things often don't go according to plan
risk of being stranded for hours
Solution
A shared fleet of autonomous vehicles
Amortize high capital costs with high utilisation

Cars as interchangeable units avoids
range anxiety

A car is always ready when you need one
Electricity supply?
2.4GWHr/day for 750K journeys
Point Henry aluminum smelter: 8.2GWHr/day
Fares and subsidies?
System Security and traveler safety?
Trust in the technology?
Car Sharing?
Special needs transport?
Economic disruption?
Government revenue?
Legislative/Legal?
Children traveling alone
Privacy
petrol stations, car repairers, car manufacturers and retailers, bus drivers, taxi owners and drivers, Uber, car-park operators...
from licensing, registration, fines, GST
Siting of charging stations?
Predicting Uptake
Estimating minute-by-minute demand
Servicing large but predictable demands
Commercialisation timetable
Lead or follow?
Electric vehicles
Autonomous driving
Autonomous charging
Cars take up too much space!
"But..."
Design your own simulation
www.projectcomputing.com/resources/cacs/
per annum, after capital and operating costs
Kent.Fitch@gmail.com
Thanks for your attention
ACT Government estimates:
On-surface car park in Civic has a land value of $93k (town-centre equivalent: $17.7k) and costs $500 per year to maintain.
BITRE: annual cost of pollution from motor vehicles in Australia:
Morbidity: 900-4500 cases
Early deaths: 900-2000
Economic cost: $1.5 - $3.8 billion
"Isn't this
risky?
"
Risk is comparative....
Risky compared to:
experimenting with social outcomes of declining mobility in an aging population?
cost of entrenching social disadvantage aggravated by poor access to efficient transport?
not addressing $30b+ annual Australian health costs of road crashes and pollution?
$200m annual cost of congestion in Canberra?
not abating transport-related greenhouse gases?
not releasing land dedicated to car-parks and garages?
duplicating transport infrastructure rather than efficiently using what's there?
Competitive pressures are driving EV and autonomous commercialisation
Many experts and commercial interests think the risks are low

Risk or Opportunity for Canberra?
Google: Canberra autonomous cars
An on-demand, door-to-door, 24x7 efficient and egalitarian transport infrastructure
Kent Fitch
Presentation to
Transport Policy, Strategic Planning,
Environment & Planning Directorate, A.C.T. Government
3 February 2015
Full transcript