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Landolt Lecture

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by

Jonathan Ledgard

on 4 May 2013

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Transcript of Landolt Lecture

Future Africa and
the role of technology AMERICA JML EASTERN EUROPE AFGHANISTAN We are all
African now Right now in Africa HIGH TECHNOLOGY CHOICES WARS and will matter even more ... Africa ABC AFRICA RISING cross river gorilla habitat Biodiversity Africa matters
NOW YOUTHCENTRIC! top out 2b MOBILES 65/100 mobiles per African
Nokia 1100 > 50m
2000 Safaricom 0.4m predicted
2012 Safaricom 18m actual
Mpesa 25% equivalent of GNP
1998 64k > $16,000 month
2000 64k > $3600 month
2012 unlimited 4G < $20 month
sub-banana internet pricing
virtual vs reality
networks MXIT 1b mpd
smartphone 2020 < $30 mobiles are just the portal
stuff still matters:road rail port
AfDB >$93b yearly infrastructure
< $45b actually spent BEYOND ICT lack of research funding
no public interest
culture wars
unemployed graduates choose marketing dentistry etc
African startups fail for lack of coders engineers
no African tech university
EPF-Afrique? Science MOOCs
massive open online
which ones?
high intellectual level
free except certification
owner of the dumb pipe wins Access to climate change Challenges IPCC likely > 0.4 Celsius increase per decade
Sahel and central Africa
drying soil
erratic rainfall
reduced food production
,< 3% of CO2 emissions jobs 200,000 jobs needed 80,000 created 20,000 from tech? (cc) photo by medhead on Flickr CITIES Lagos 16m
Kinshasa 15m
Cairo 13m future cities are the biggest opportunity
> 700m Africans in cities that do not yet exist - in our lifetime!
62% in slums
cholera etc
insecurity
70% live on wits
not productive
WDR Nigeria no income growth in cities
city revenues up
first mass transit 2012 2m
2030 4m MOGADISHU NORTHERN CHOICE 2000 2010 2005 2002 March (cc) image by jantik on Flickr Key points beyond ICT
future cities
intellectual ownership
jobs
good for business
solar lamp Eliasson $10b kerosene <$10 time to act
the technology choices Africa makes in the next decade will decide its future for the next century hopeless continent (2000)
Africa rising (2011) economic indicators Biometric restrictions
2012 Africa is not 1845 Ireland
deaths in transit 1 in 10
blowback more complications
< soil nutrients
> deforestation
plot size < 0.5 hectare famine
1984 Ethiopia 1m dead
2012 Ethiopia 4.5m/88m
2011 somalia 80,000 dead
2012 Niger 1.9m/17m see-saw 3 priorities for high technology
water management
capture 90% rainfall
recycle sewage
zap that shit latrines
solar reverse osmosis
architecture
urban metabolism inputs outputs
public space
digital mapping
advanced building materials
improved cooling chimneys etc
human dynamics
predictive behaviour MIT Sandy Pentland
mine big data off somali handsets
land values, virology, security, transport
it's all a system! Italia
architecture
ocean 80% youth unemployment is UNWORKABLE Kampala 1.8m people one oncologist four 5 star hotels Afrotech.epfl.ch
centre for African high technology
improve technology choices
open source
academic excellence + awareness + urgency
strengthen and deepen maths, physics, computing, engineering, robotics, neuroscience, global health, architecture and design
propagate reverse innovation out of Africa "the numbers are in Africa"
- Aebischer science is ultimately about species preservation - including our own Jonathan Ledgard
Director, Afrotech EPFL
NETYS, Marrakech, 2013 Patents (2011)
Africa 415
Panasonic 2346
Switzerland 4000
Japan 38,888 > 50% of Africans under 19

first time voters decisive

populist unrest already there Moodys 6% growth to 2020 IMF:majority better fiscal balance and stronger growth rate durability:AfDB plugs outflows ($40 billion after Lehman Brothers) aid still significant: 20 poorest countries are dependent banks and stock exchanges growing but opaque volatile airlines: Ethiopian $1.3b 35/22, Kenyan $1.1b 42/16, trans-Congo, China, Brazil -59% Mara giraffes -95% reef shark collapse

record tusk poaching

< insects grasses crops forest

> soil erosion
rapid supply human needs while saving nature for future high technology advocate
foreign correspondent
novelist < 4% global electricity

Siberia
Nigeria 17/79
Congo Grand Inga 39,000mw

Aggreko etc. whose flat world?
rich countries run a knowledge surplus, Africa buys ideas
can't afford the cutting edge if you have to pay to be there
biotech pharma NO
aircraft NO
precision instruments NO
electronics NO
arms YES reverse innovation
mobiles
hardware hacking
3D printing Ernst Schumacher's "Small is Beautiful"
Appropriate technology and grand projects have failed to get to scale
Tech Transfer for Development (TOOL) etc. all gone why?
timing
hybridisation Africa-EU trade $175b tech cities
land values big questions
Bazalgette?
economic history?
memory?
tribalism "dream amid breakfast"
shopping centres?
dynamism or combustibility? 54/53
"afar"
mother demographic dividend

African youth (15-24) grow from 305m to 424m by 2025

European youth (15-24) fall from 140m to 111m by 2025 1900 2050 1960 2002 March (cc) image by jantik on Flickr 1m 108m 6m 2012 34m UGANDA build for the person on the street high technology is most rigorous and intelligent available technology labour intensive technology
= rickshaw with wifi ex
semper aliquid novi AFRICA knowledge Fela Kuti teacher don't teach me no nonsense
Full transcript