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IMF's Effects on Revolutions

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Will Taylor

on 24 April 2013

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Transcript of IMF's Effects on Revolutions

IMF's Effects on Revolutions By Evan Arant and Will Taylor Outline Introduction
Literature on the IMF and Revolutions
Research Question
Case Study: Indonesia
Case Study: Egypt
Discussion Questions IMF: History IMF Polices and its Effects IMF Structural Adjustment Policies
Positives
Negatives What Can Cause a Revolution? Crane Brinton and "The Anatomy Of Revolution" Not all revolutions are the same and financial problems play an important role. James C. Davies and " The Circumstances and Causes of Revolution" Expected versus Actual Satisfaction Paul Collier and "The Bottom Billion" Low Income, Slow Growth, and Dependence on a Commodity Research Question Research Question: How does the IMF and SAPs relationship with certain economic factors increase the chance of revolution in developing countries?

Hypothesis: The IMF economic programs increase and cause factors that lead to revolution in countries. Independent and Dependent Variables DV: Factors contributing to revolutionary environments

IV1: Impacts of IMF involvement on the economy

IV2: Impacts of IMF involvement on standard of living

IV3: Impact of IMF involvement on democracy and human rights. Case Study: Egypt Egypt and IMF from 1980-1998
1.85 billion Egypt and IMF from 2000-2003
Stagnation Egypt and IMF from 2004-2007
Macroeconomics Egypt's Reforms and Stability Egypt's Consumer Price Index Egypt: Unemployment Rate Egypt's Youth Unemployment Egypt: Other Factors HDI (Human Development Index)
Gini Coefficient
FAO (Food Price Index)
Subsidy Case Study: Egypt Dominique Strauss-Kahn, IMF Managing Director
Did This Cause a Revolution?
Future of IMF in Egypt? Discussion Questions Are Economic Factors the primary cause of revolutions?

Do you think that the IMF has a positive or negative impact? Case Study: Indonesia Suharto's Military Coup and Economic Growth and Success

Asian Economic Crisis

IMF Reforms to Indonesia Indonesia's Exchange Rate and Inflation Indonesia's Consumer Price Index Indonesia's Unemployment Rates Indonesia: Other Factors Indonesia's Human Development Index (HDI)

Freedom House Index

Gini Coefficient

GDP Per Capita
Slower regaining growth Case Study: Indonesia Protests and Riots
Fall of Suharto
Aftermath and Currently in Indonesia
Was Economics and IMF a Factor? Introduction to Economic Reforms USSR at the End of The Cold War
Mikhail Gorbachev
Turned from Communistic society to a Capitalistic society
Success at first but slowly Collapse China-Post Mao
Capitalistic Reforms
Growing Economy
Still Authoritarian Brentton Woods Conference
Started out 28 nations sign the treaty
Started the International Monetary Fund
Created the World Bank
Looked into exchange rates IMF and the Floating Exchange Rate
Looking at Stabilization Programs for Developing Countries
Now 188 Countries Currently References Abouharb, M. Rodwan and David Cingranelli. 2006. The Human Rights Effects of World Bank Structural Adjustment Lending, 1981-2000. International Studies Quarterly 50, 2: 233-62.
Abouharb, M. Rodwan and David Cingranelli. 2007. Human Rights and Structural Adjustment: The Impact of the IMF and World Bank. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Bird, Graham. "The IMF: A Bird's Eye View of its Role and Operations." Journal Of Economic Surveys 21, no. 4 (September 2007): 683-745. Boorman, Jack and Hume Andrea, 2003. International Monetary Fund, "Life with the IMF: Indonesia's Choices for the Future."
Boughton, J. (n.d.). The IMF and the Silent Revolution. IMF -- International Monetary Fund Home Page.
Brinton, Crane. “The Anatomy of Revolution, revised ed.” (New York, Vintage Books, 1965). First edition, 1938.
Collier, Paul. The bottom billion: why the poorest countries are failing and what can be done about it. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007. Print. Country. (n.d.). Income share held by fourth 20% | Data | Graph. Data | The World Bank.
Dhanani, Shafiq. "Unemployment and Underemployment in Indonesia, 1976-2000: Paradoxes and Issues." International Labour Office, Geneva. (2004).
Documents on Egypt | Human Rights Watch. (n.d.). Human Rights Watch | Defending Human Rights Worldwide.
Dreher, Axel and Martin Gassebner. 2008. Do IMF and World Bank Programs Induce Government Crises? An Empirical Analysis. KOF Working Paper 200: 1-32.
FX Top, 2013. "Historical exchange rates."
Ghosh, B., Hauslohner, A., Abouzeid, R., Rashidi, Y., Scherer, M., & Calabresi, M. (2011). Revolution, Delayed. Time,177(7), 30-36. Reference Green, Duncan (n.d.). "What caused the revolution in Egypt? ." The Guardian,.
IMF and Egypt Fast Facts. (n.d.). IMF -- International Monetary Fund Home Page.
Index Mundi, "Gini Index." 2011.
Index Mundi, "Indonesia - Consumer price index." 2012.
“Indonesia 1998”, 2013.Freedom House.
"Indonesia Floats the Rupiah, 1997. And It Drops More Than 6%." New York Times.
Inflation,2013. "CPI inflation Indonesia 1997."
Inflation, 2013."CPI inflation Indonesia 1998."
International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Indonesia Letter of Intent ."
Joicey, N. and Pickford, S. "The International Monetary Fund and Global Economic Cooperation" in Nicholas Bayne and Stephen Woolcock, "The New Economic Diplomacy: Decision-Making and Negotiation in International Relations", (Ashgate Publishing, 2011).
Joya, A. (2011). The Egyptian revolution: crisis of neoliberalism and the potential for democratic politics. Review Of African Political Economy, 38(129), 367-386. doi:10.1080/03056244.2011.602544
Human Rights Watch, 1998."Indonesia Alert Economic Crisis Leads to Scapegoating of Ethnic Chinese.
"Katulis, B. (n.d.). Egypt | Freedom House. Freedom House. Retrieved April 11, 2013, from http://www.freedomhouse.org/country/egypt
Katz, Mark N. "Democratic Revolutions." World Affairs 166, no. 3 (Winter 2004): 163-170.
Krueger, Anne O. "IMF Stabilization Programs." National Bureau of Economic Research. (2003).
Lowrey, A. (n.d.). Egyptian protests: How a food crisis is driving a political crisis. - Slate Magazine. Politics, Business, Technology, and the Arts - Slate Magazine.
Moschella, M. Governing Risk: The IMF and Global Financial Crises (Palgrave Macmillan; 2010).
Schneider, Anna. "Indonesia - An Unfinished Revolution." Austrian Section of the Committee for a Workers' International, SOV. (1998).
Stiglitz, 2001 J. Stiglitz Failure of the fund: Rethinking the IMF response Harvard International Review, 23 (2001), pp. 14–18
Stiglitz Capital-market liberalization, globalization, and the IMF Oxford Review of Economic policy, 20 (2004), pp. 57–71.
"The Effects of Structural Adjustment on Youth Unemployment in Egypt - D-Scholarship@Pitt." Welcome to D-Scholarship@Pitt - D-Scholarship@Pitt. 2005. Reference United Nations, "Human Development Report 2013: Indonesia." 2013.Wallace, G., & Nelson, S. (2005). Conditional Credibility: Explaining the Impact of the IMF on Democratization. 5 American Political Science Association,.
"World Bank – IMF support to dictatorships". Committee for the Abolition of the Third World Debt.
World Food Situation: FAO Food Price Index. (n.d.). FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, for a world without hunger.
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