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Neo- and anti-malthusian theories

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Noelle Aalberts

on 4 April 2014

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Transcript of Neo- and anti-malthusian theories

There is a finite optimum population size in relation to food supply
Consequences of population growth: decline in the standard of living, war,disease, famine.
Human population grows exponentially
Food supplied increase arithmetically
Thomas Malthus´s theory ( 1798)
People have the resources to increase food production, using knowledge and technology.
Population growth leads to agricultural development.
Population has the ability to adopt to the changes in population.
Esther Boserup (1965)
Did not predict farming changes ( agricultural revolution occured after 1798)
Did not take into account the demographic transition model
Does not consider technological advancement
Limitations to Malthus Theory
Humans will face mass poverty, famine, starvation, death
The Earth has reached its carrying capacity
Only 10% chance of avoiding a collapse of global civilisation
" everybody can lead a decent life without everybody being fair."
Paul Ehrlich´s theory (1968)
Neo- and anti-malthusian theories
Resource Consumption
Population Growth
Neo malthusian theories
Anti-malthusian theories
Julian Simons theory
More technology makes more resources available.
Supplies may be physically limited but economically indefinite.
resources are recycled
new alternatives are developed by the market.
Evidence for neo Malthusian theories
Evidence against neo Malthusian theories
The period of rapid population growth has seen the greatest increase in life spans and living standards.
Food shortages have been caused by political problems ( e.g in Ethiopa- marxism)
If supplies are limited, why are the getting cheaper?
Tokyo and Manhattan are most densely populated but have the greatest concentration of wealth.
Evidence for the anti-malthusian policies
Increasing population in Africa and Asia: increased pressure on resources.
e.g Burundi: Very high population growth resulting in a high GHI.
1990: 33.8
2013:38.8
Japan: population growth is -0.2%( since 2012)- very developed
Production per capita increased eightfold between 1800 and 2000.
China will lift 200 million individuals out of poverty.
Percentage of undernourished people has dropped from 50% ( 1950) to 16% today.
Life expectancy increased from 52 in 1960 to 69 today.
future predictions: humans will become 14 times richer, everyone will have access to food, water and sanitation.
Similarities
Both theories agree that a rise in population will increase the demand for food.
They are both based on specific parts of the world, they cant be applied on a global scale.
Conclusion
Both theories are very extreme
Both have aspects that apply
Humans are capable of advancement and adaption.
Limits may exist
Anti malthusian
Full transcript