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Obama Campaign Strategy
Transcript of Obama Campaign Strategy
Unemployed Targeted Social
Groups Nevada Florida: 29
Nevada: 6 Targeted Swing States Florida Voters base decision: Targeting Voters Kasey Berardi
Alex Arnott President Obama
Fairness Act "The president signed the bill for his grandmother, whose dreams hit the glass ceiling," said Ledbetter. "And for his daughters, so that theirs never will." "Thanks to the historic health reform [Obama] championed, women now will have access to a wide range of preventive health services, including contraception, mammograms, and well-woman visits, all without a co-pay. And insurance companies will be unable to get away with the discriminatory policy of charging women a higher premium than men." http://www.barackobama.com/news/entry/youre-invited-to-a-women-for-obama-house-party-on-wednesday ObamaCare for Women "If Romney wins, women can wave goodbye to what Planned Parenthood has called “the single biggest advancement in women’s health in a generation." http://thinkprogress.org/health/2012/05/24/488844/top-10-obamacare-benefits-at-stake-for-women/?mobile=nc Elderly: The Affordable Care Act The Unemployed Vote The unemployment rate in the United States has decreased to 8.1 percent in August of 2012 Take a Closer Look http://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm The Latino Vote 27.1% Nevada
22.9% Florida Unemployment Rate of Latinos Resources 1. Money
3.Incumbancy Money 1. Fundraising
2. Celebrity Endorsement
3. Personal Funds Celebrity Endorsements Oprah, Betty White, Beyonce, George Lopez, Jay-Z, George Clooney, Ellen DeGeneres, Katy Perry, Madonna, Will Smith, Meryl Streep, Steven Speilberg Information Soft Money Raised by national party committees and transferred to states/local parties 1. The Internet
3. Media Coverage Incumbancy 1. Name/face recognition
2. Record in office
3. Unopposed in primary "Incumbents, who are always well funded and frequently unopposed for renomination, can use the primary period to stockpile campaign money until a nominee emerges in the other party." Polsby, 58 Nomination Process 1. The Economy
2. Socio-Cultural Factors
3. Psychological Factors The Economy “Obama’s plan would create 1.1 million jobs in 2013 and 280,000 jobs in 2014, while Romney’s budget would create 87,000 jobs in 2013 and lose 641,000 jobs in 2014, provided that his plans are deficit-financed, according to a new EPI study.” (Washington Post) Elderly Issues- Medicare and Social Security
Unemployed- Job Creation and Economy
Latinos- Immigration reform
Women- Equal Pay What Makes a
2. percentage that vote
3. dedication to party Socio-Cultural Factors
“…voters also base their choice of candidates on their personal impressions of the nominees” (Polsby, 158) Psychological Factors The Woman Vote The Elderly Vote Primaries Historical Vignettes “1984: On the Republican side, Reagan’s incumbency meant no contest in Iowa.” (Pg. 104)
“1996: Bill Clinton was only the second president, along with Reagan in 1984, to be renominated without challenge under the reformed nomination system in place since 1972” (Pg. 106)
“2004: The incumbency of George W. Bush precluded a contest on the Republican side.” (Pg. 108)
2012: As we have seen, the incumbency of Barack Obama has also precluded no contest, only this time on the Democrat side. Ideological positioning:
No need for Obama to go extreme and then shift toward the middle Time and money saved Incumbency disadvantages
Enthusiasm gap: rallying the liberal base and garnering excitement could be potentially problematic for President Obama as an incumbent http://smpbff1.dsd.census.gov/TheDataWeb_HotReport/servlet/HotReportEngineServlet?reportid=767b1387bea22b8d3e8486924a69adcd&emailname=essb@boc&filename=0328_nata.hrml http://smpbff1.dsd.census.gov/TheDataWeb_HotReport/servlet/HotReportEngineServlet?reportid=767b1387bea22b8d3e8486924a69adcd&emailname=essb@boc&filename=0328_nata.hrml http://smpbff1.dsd.census.gov/TheDataWeb_HotReport/servlet/HotReportEngineServlet?reportid=767b1387bea22b8d3e8486924a69adcd&emailname=essb@boc&filename=0328_nata.hrml "If Mr. Obama wins Florida, he could lose each of Virginia, Colorado and Iowa, along with Ohio, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, and either New Hampshire or Nevada, and still win the Electoral College." -538 Blog, NY Times Trade-Off